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Sunday, December 30, 2007

Injury and Status Update for Week 17 Late Games

BEN ROETHLISBERGER (ankle) is the emergency quarterback at Baltimore. CHARLIE BATCH will start for the Steelers.

HINES WARD will not play against Baltimore because the Steelers do not have much to play for other than the #3 seed in the AFC.

MUSA SMITH will start against Pittsburgh with WILLIS MCGAHEE and MIKE ANDERSON both inactive. The Steelers are tough against the run, but they probably will sit key starters on defense at some point in the game.

KELLEN CLEMENS (shoulder/ribs) is active against Kansas City. The Chiefs have defended the pass very well lately so Clemens is not the greatest play of the week.

JERRICHO COTCHERY (finger) and BRAD SMITH (back) are both active against the Chiefs. With Laveranues Coles on the IR, Cotchery and Smith will get most of the looks in the passing game.

BRODIE CROYLE (hand) will start against the Jets. Croyle has not played that well this season and has yet to win a game as a starter, although the Jets' defense is nothing special.

KURT WARNER (elbow) and LARRY FITZGERALD (groin) are both active against St. Louis. Fitzgerald is been banged up over the last couple of games and could take a back seat to a more healthy Anquan Boldin again this week.

TERRY GLENN (knee) is active at Washington. Glenn has not played this year and he probably won't be on the field the entire game so do not expect much.

BRANDON STOKLEY (knee) will not play against Minnesota.

Injury and Status Update for Week 17 Early Games

MAURICE JONES-DREW and FRED TAYLOR are inactive at Houston. The Jaguars do not have much to play for with their playoff position set so they decided to rest their key runners. LABRANDON TOEFIELD will start and is worth a look if you are in need of a running back this week.

DAVID GARRARD is active, but will not start at Houston. Like Jones-Drew and Taylor, the Jaguars are not taking any chances with a key member of their offense. QUINN GRAY will start in Garrard's place.

BRIAN WESTBROOK (knee) is active against Buffalo. Westbrook has had a fantastic season and should continue that on Sunday because the Bills are really hurting on defense with a variety of injuries.

AARON STECKER (toe) is active at Chicago. Stecker is definitely not 100 percent healthy and will probably lose some carries to PIERRE THOMAS, but he's available if you need him.

DONALD DRIVER and GREG JENNINGS (ankle) are inactive against Detroit. While there is nothing wrong with Driver and he's just being held out in a meaningless game, Jennings has missed practice this week so no big surprise with him. JAMES JONES and RUVELL MARTIN should see more looks from Green Bay's quarterbacks.

BRETT FAVRE will play against Detroit, but with many key offensive players not active, Favre might not see much action. Proceed with caution if you're a Favre owner.

DONALD LEE will not play against Detroit. Like Donald Driver, the Packers are sitting some of their key players in a non-important game.

JEFF GARCIA, EARNEST GRAHAM (ankle), JOEY GALLOWAY (shoulder) and IKE HILLIARD (knee) will all not play against Carolina. The Bucs are taking a cautious approach with their key offensive players because their playoff position is locked in. LUKE MCCOWN and MICHAEL PITTMAN will start at quarterback and running back for Tampa Bay and could be a decent options if you are looking for last-minute options.

FRANK GORE (ankle) is active at Cleveland. Gore could have some major success against a suspect Browns' rush defense, although it does not help Gore that CHRIS WEINKE is starting for SHAUN HILL (back).

DEION BRANCH (calf) is inactive at Atlanta. Most of Seattle's starters won't play much anyway with nothing to gain or lose playoff wise, but Branch won't see the field at all.

RON DAYNE (ankle) is active against Jacksonville, but DARIUS WALKER will start again. Dayne did not see any carries last week so he might be limited again against the Jaguars.

MATT SCHAUB (shoulder) is the emergency quarterback against Jacksonville. SAGE ROSENFELS will start once again and could be very productive against a defense that figures to rest many of its starters.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Random Thoughts from Around the NFL

Is there a more bizarre team in the league than the Giants? They’re just 3-4 in the Meadowlands, but an impressive 7-1 on the road. Although four of their seven wins away from home were against cupcake teams.

If someone told you before the season that Tom Brady would throw about 50 touchdown passes, Randy Moss would approach Jerry Rice’s NFL record of 22 receiving touchdowns and the Pats would go 16-0, what would you say?

This just in – The Home Shopping Network, MTV, Oxygen, Bravo and Lifetime for Women will all be broadcasting Saturday’s New England-New York Giants game.

If the Seahawks had home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I have no doubt that they’d win the NFC. They are a completely different team at home, more so than most NFL franchises.

There is a lot of nonsense going around about how Cleveland should bench Derek Anderson in a somewhat meaningless season finale (their playoff fate is solely based on what happens with the Titans) so he does not suffer a potential injury. The theory is that if Anderson got hurt then his trade value would be severely diminished in the off-season. My question is - what makes the Browns think that rookie Brady Quinn is their future? Anderson’s play has not been as good in the second half, but he looks like a potential franchise quarterback and we know very little about Quinn other than he dropped significantly in April’s NFL Draft.

Here is more on Derek Anderson and an interesting stat as well. If Anderson throws at least two touchdowns on Sunday against San Francisco, he’ll become the fifth quarterback this season with 30+ touchdown passes. There have NEVER been five quarterbacks with at least 30 touchdowns in the same season in the rich history of pro football (four quarterbacks with 30+ has only happened twice). Furthermore, in 15 of the last 30 years (since the league went to a 16-game schedule), there has been ZERO or ONE quarterback with 30+ touchdown passes in a particular season. Looks like the NFL is a passing league.

The Chargers are a joke. Anyone that thinks their late-season success will translate into anything is clueless. Philip Rivers is an average quarterback and Norv Turner is overrated as a coach – not a winning formula in the playoffs.

We might not have a 1,500-yard rusher in the league this season and that would be the first time since 1993 when Emmitt Smith led the NFL with 1,486 rushing yards. But can you name the player with the lowest total to win a rushing crown since the NFL moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978 (not including strike seasons)? If you guessed Barry Sanders, you’re a genius. The great Sanders ran for only 1,304 yards in 1990 yet still led the entire league in rushing.

While doing research on great wide receivers of the past I came across a very surprising stat. Buffalo’s Andre Reed, a potential Hall of Famer, had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career. With Jim Kelly and all the offense those Bills’ teams produced, I find that to be an amazingly low number.

You know it’s an interesting NFL season when two tight ends (Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez) are in the Top 10 in receiving yards this late in the year and one of them is not named Antonio Gates.

I swear to God if I had a vote for Offensive Player of the Year, I would give serious consideration to Atlanta’s Roddy White. The Falcons have only scored 20 touchdowns as a team all season (Randy Moss has 21) and White has accounted for five of them. The quarterback play has been abysmal with the suspect trio of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich and Chris Redman and White still has 78 receptions for 1,140 yards with five 100-yard games.

I am not sure if Drew Brees gets enough credit as a quarterback. He (and the Saints) got off to a very rough start this season with just one touchdown and seven interceptions in the first three games. Since that point, Brees has tossed 24 touchdowns against only nine picks and the team has gone a respectable 7-5 over that span without much of a running game. Brees has averaged 26 touchdown passes over the last four seasons and has gone well over 4,000 yards in each of the last two campaigns.

Why does your league use Week 17???

Because there are a lot of meaningless games this week, not to mention the fact that most fantasy leagues end on Week 16, THIMD did not bother with rankings this week. And in place of today's usual column (Start or Bench?), we decided to focus on the games where there is potential for normal starters to be iffy at best, as a lot of teams will be sitting players for parts (if not all) of each of these games. Our best is as good as yours as to how many snaps these players take, but we were willing to give it a shot...

New England at NY Giants

I’ll start with the G-Men first, as the amount of time NE’s starters play probably depend on what the Giants do. It’s just a hunch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Coughlin leaves most of his starters in for the first half, just to see how well they do. If the game stays close, I could see Eli coming out in the 2nd half. The only guy that probably won’t see much action at all is Burress. Boss will likely get a lot of looks, as they’ll want to see how much he’ll be able to contribute in the playoffs. If the Giants go down big early, all fantasy relevant players (is Eli relevant?) will be sitting on the sidelines in the 2nd half at the latest…

Brady will get his 2 TD’s, Moss will get at least 1 TD, the Pats will win the game, et cetera, et cetera. But as I mentioned before, if the game gets out of hand before half time, and Brady/Moss have the records already, look for a healthy dose of Heath Evans, the Matt’s at QB, and so on. I just can’t see Belichick taking any chances if a victory has already been sealed. I’d still start Brady, Moss, Maroney, and even Welker, but don’t expect any of them to play the entire game...

Carolina at Tampa Bay

The Panthers are playing for pride at this point, but also taking a look at their roster for next year. This means that Matt Moore will get all of the snaps at QB, and DeAngelo Williams is worth a start, as the Bucs have nothing to play for, and will likely rest a lot of their key defensive players. Steve Smith will have a good chance to have his 2nd straight 100+ yard game, and would be in my top 12 if we had done rankings this week…

As for the Bucs, I wouldn’t bother with any of the “3 G’s” this week (Garcia, Graham, Galloway). Instead, guys like Pittman, Bennett, and McCown will be shouldering the load. McCown may be worth a start if you’re in a deep league, but I wouldn’t bother with either of the RB’s, as neither of them will likely have enough touches to make an impact (although I expect one of them to score)…

Jacksonville at Houston

Like the Bucs, the Jags are playing for nothing, as they have clinched the 5 spot for next week’s playoff matchup, either at PITT or SD. Garrard may play a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he only played the first quarter. And needless to say, you don’t want Quinn Gray on your team… As for the RB’s, Taylor will only get a few carries (if any), and MJD may see some increased playing time, but look for Greg Jones to be a deep sleeper this week, as he has a knack of finding the end zone, and does have 2 career 100 yard rushing games… The receivers are always a crapshoot anyways, so unless you have a hunch that this is the week Matt Jones breaks out, stay away…

The Texans have a chance to finish at .500 for the first time in the history of the team. As I mentioned in my RB column, Ron Dayne has a shot at setting a career high in rushing yards, although he had no carries last week. I’m not quite sure who Kubiak plans on starting this week, but Dayne should be in line for a decent game if he gets 15+ carries… I’d still start Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, as their values are both boosted this week (I’d put AJ in my top 8 at the minimum)…

Seattle at Atlanta

Again, it’s a game of a team that has nothing to play for (SEA) against a team that is playing for nothing but pride. For SEA, Hass may play no more than 1 quarter, rendering him virtually useless in fantasy (although he is playing ATL…). And if this is the case, I’d rather start Redman than Frye or Wallace, depending on who gets the snaps. Look for Leonard Weaver to have a decent game, as it is highly unlikely that MoMo or Alexander will have more than 10 touches each… I don’t know what to expect at WR, but I would still start Branch and Engram, as well as D.J. Hackett, as they’ll likely get enough snaps to make a difference for your team…

As for the woeful Falcons, Redman may actually be worth using, as he’ll be facing a SEA pass defense that will likely be starting a lot of backups in the 2nd half. In addition, this will finally be the week that Jerrious Norwood has a big game. Roddy White is still safe to play, and Michael Jenkins may even have 60+ yards…

Detroit at Green Bay

Again, the Packers have nothing to play for, as they have locked up the #2 seed for the playoffs. Favre will definitely play some to keep his consecutive game streak going, but I can’t see him finishing the game. Instead, Craig Nall has the benefit of facing a terrible DET pass defense, and should put up 200 yards and a TD. Ryan Grant will probably only play a half at most, but given the opponent, I’d still take a chance on him. Brandon Jackson will likely get the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half… Greg Jennings will probably sit this one out, giving James Jones an opportunity to prove his worth as GB’s #3 WR for next season…

For Detroit, they’re looking to finish off a terrible 2nd half on a 2 game winning streak, and I expect all of their starters from last week (Kitna, Duckett, Megatron, Furrey, McDonald) to play a full game, making all of them fine to start. I’m not that big on Duckett though. Former GB QB J.T. O’Sullivan may end up getting a few snaps against his old team, although I wouldn’t go near him in the deepest of leagues…

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

The Steelers have already clinched the AFC North Division so chances are they will rest some of their key starters, especially players like Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, ankle). Normally, the difference between the #3 and #4 seed is not a big deal, but this year the #4 spot means facing Jacksonville orNew England in Foxboro in the second round so the Steelers should be motivated on Sunday. can still claim the #3 seed in the AFC with a win and loss by in the first round of the playoffs and

Look for Roethlisberger to play a quarter or half at most with players like Najeh Davenport, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward playing a little longer. In case you’re in a super deep league or extremely desperate, Gary Russell might be worth a pickup. He split carries with Laurence Maroney in 2004 at the University of Minnesota and led the Steelers in rushing during the pre-season so he has some talent. He’ll backup Davenport and if the game gets ugly, he could see significant work.

For Baltimore, everyone that is healthy should play, but they have several key injuries. Willis McGahee (ribs) has been ruled out so Musa Smith will start and could put up decent numbers because he is a good receiver out of the backfield. Kyle Boller (concussion) probably won’t play so rookie Troy Smith should start again. Smith struggled last week and does not appear to be a good start against Pittsburgh.

Dallas at Washington

The Cowboys have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs so most of their starters will be rested on Sunday. Although, coach Wade Phillips has indicated that he is going to do everything in his power to win the game for his team and the integrity of the league. Who knows exactly what that means?

One thing is for sure - Terrell Owens (ankle) definitely won’t play so he can rest and be close to full strength for the post-season. Regardless of Philips’ comments, there have been some rumors that Tony Romo might play a little longer than normal for a meaningless season finale to get some work with Terry Glenn (knee), who is set to make his 2007 debut. It’s hard to imagine Romo playing more than a half under any circumstance, however, so proceed with caution. Expect the same thing for key offensive players like Jason Witten and Marion Barber. The NFL Network reported on Thursday that Barber will hardly play at all so keep an eye on his status right until kickoff for any breaking news.

The Redskins will make the playoffs with a victory so feel free to use any of their players if you normally do. Todd Collins will start again for Jason Campbell (knee) and the Walpole, MA native has played well in the last six quarters. Clinton Portis has had an up-and-down season, but has been hot over the last few games while receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El have picked up their production as well.

San Diego at Oakland

The Chargers will be the #3 seed in the AFC with a win, but it’s unclear how important that position is to them. It would mean avoiding Jacksonville in the first round and New England in the second, but chances are most of their key offensive starters will be rested at least for the second half.

Philip Rivers (knee) is banged up so it would be very surprising if he played too much anyway and LaDainian Tomlinson is too valuable to be left on the field for too long. Michael Turner and/or Darren Sproles might not be a bad play for fantasy owners that are thin at RB in Week 17 and do not have many options. Even if the Chargers were not resting starters, Antonio Gates is unusable at this point because of injuries and poor play.

Oakland will play all of their healthy starters and take a look at young players like rookie JaMarcus Russell, who will make the first start of his career. Russell will probably struggle, however, so only start him if you are thin at QB or simply want to roll the dice. Dominic Rhodes was productive last week in a loss at Jacksonville and the Raiders do run the ball well so Rhodes might not be a bad play against a San Diego team that figures to rest some starters.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

The Colts cannot move up or down from the #2 spot in the AFC so they do not have much to play for. Coach Tony Dungy has already said that Manning won’t play more than the first half. In Dungy code that means Manning will play a quarter or less. If you are in dire straits at the QB position, Jim Sorgi could help you a bit because he’ll probably play around three quarters.

Expect Joseph Addai to not even play after he sat out the second half last week with a back injury. Kenton Keith should get an increased workload, but look for third-string Clifton Dawson to see a lot of action as well, especially in the second half.

Marvin Harrison (knee) might be physically ready to play, but it would be a major surprise if the Colts did not continue their trend of caution and sit the veteran wide receiver. Look for Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez (foot) to see very limited action.

The Titans need a win to make the playoffs and if they lose, they’re automatically out of contention. Vince Young has been shaky most of the year, but he’ll be going against a second-string Colts defense for most of the game. LenDale White and Chris Brown to a lesser degree should have big games in a must-win situation. Kickers are extremely difficult to predict, but Rob Bironas has had another great season and could get multiple field goal opportunities.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

A look ahead (2008 RB's)....

Heading into Week 17, there were a total of 95 RB’s with at least 20 carries this year. I decided to take a closer look according to age grouping.

Group A (21-25 years old) – 42 players.

Group B (26-29 years old) – 42 players.

Group C (30+ years old) – 11 players.

For Group A, the yards per carry on average was 4.4, with total yards from scrimmage just over 600 yards (447 rushing, 155 receiving) on 123 touches (103 attempts, 20 receptions).

For Group B, the YPC actually dipped to 4.1, but the total yards from scrimmage jumped 26%, to over 750 yards per player (577 rushing, 181 receiving) on 164 touches (140 attempts, 24 receptions). This seems to be the “prime” years for a RB, as you’ll see below.

As expected, for Group C, the YPC dropped significantly, to 3.2. In addition, the yards from scrimmage was less than 400 yards per player (309 rushing, 70 receiving) on just 79 touches (71 attempts, 8 receptions). Of the RB’s that are 30+, only 6 of them have played at least 12 games: Aaron Stecker, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor, Mike Sellers, and Shaun Alexander. After looking at this list, you have to give an enormous amount of credit to Fragile Fred, as he is having a spectacular season, regardless of age.

So now that this season is in the books from a fantasy standpoint, let’s take a look at which players are making the jump into Group B for the 2008 season, as well as the players to be wary of, as they will hit the big “3-0” at some point during the season. In total, there are 12 RB’s turning 26 in 2008, as well as 12 RB’s turning 30. Below is a list of all 24 players, along with notes on each (in order by DOB)…

Group B

Michael Turner (2/13/82) – Turner has over 1,200 yards rushing in his career on just 217 carries (5.6 YPC). Depending on what starting RB opportunities open up, look for him to have a strong season, as he should be an excellent RB2 next year. Turner is already a THIMD favorite, and will likely be a great value pick in fantasy drafts…

Cadillac Williams (4/21/82) – Williams has been injury prone, with 2 games missed in each of his first two seasons, and 12 games this year. Because of this, he does have low mileage on the legs, but with the breakout campaign by Earnest Graham, there may be a timeshare in TB (or Graham may have the job to himself), limiting Williams’ potential.

Musa Smith (5/31/82) – Smith has been injury-prone throughout his career, but may get a few bites on the FA market this year, as there aren’t too many young RB’s with low mileage available. Smith has proven himself to be a good pass-catcher out of the backfield as well, with 24 receptions this year, despite very limited playing time. If he re-signs with BAL, draft him only if you have McGahee. If he signs elsewhere as a starter, his value will increase to at least an RB3, depending on where he ends up…

Brandon Jacobs (7/6/82) – Although he missed a few games due to injury, Jacobs was a monster during the second half. Although he may not be listed as a top 12 RB next season, I expect him to be a low-end RB1 next year, and will be a great 2nd round pick…

Jason Wright (7/12/82) – Wright did okay when Jamal Lewis was injured, but don’t look for him to be anything more than a handcuff once again next year, as Lewis is firmly entrenched as the starter in CLE. Wright and Jerome Harrison are already signed through 2008, so I don’t know if either one of them will be draft-worthy next year…

Andre Hall (8/20/82) – You never know what’s going on in Shanny’s head, but it appears that the starting RB in DEN will be Selvin Young next year, with Hall serving as a backup. Henry is signed through 2012, but he’ll probably be either traded for a draft pick, or given his rolling (err…) walking papers…

Kevin Jones (8/21/82) – Jones has been extremely injury prone the past two years, and with the ACL tear, will once again be drafted as no more than a RB3, as you just can’t trust him to give you 14+ games. Keep an eye on the Mike Martz situation, as a new offensive coordinator may help Jones next year.

Leon Washington (8/29/82) – Washington is a very interesting player for 2008, as Thomas Jones will be joining the 30+ club (see below). Don’t be surprised to see either Jones get injured, opening up the starting RB gig for Leon, or, at the minimum, at least 10-12 touches per game for Washington, who showed flashes of brilliance for the Jets in what has been a forgettable season…

Leonard Weaver (9/23/82) – Unless Maurice Morris (who I expect to be the starter in SEA next year) gets hurt, Weaver will be nothing more than a handcuff for MoMo next year, as Alexander will probably not be around…

Samkon Gado (11/13/82) – No fantasy impact…

Ryan Grant (12/9/82) – After amassing just 27 yards in the first 7 weeks, Grant has exploded as the starter for the Packers, averaging just under 100 yards rushing per game since Week 8. Before the season started, there were rumors that GB would be targeting Michael Turner in 2008, but clearly Grant has earned the starting job for 2008 and beyond, and will be an early draft pick in most leagues next year…

Cedric Benson (12/28/82) – I don’t really know what to say about Benson. He was pretty terrible this year, but from a fantasy standpoint, as long as the Bears were winning (which wasn’t very often), Benson did okay, with an average of 22 touches and 77 total yards per game. What was interesting to me was that in losses, Benson averaged 3.74 YPC, while in wins, he averaged just 3.18. Don’t be surprised if there is a timeshare with Peterson next year (or if CHI drafts a RB), which will limit Benson’s fantasy impact…

Group C

Kenny Watson (3/13/78) – Watson had a breakout year in 2007 with Rudi hobbled by injury. With rumors that Johnson will be released after this season, look for Watson to be the main beneficiary, as DeDe Dorsey does not have what it takes to be an every down back.

Ron Dayne (3/14/78) – Dayne will be drafted in your league next year, and dropped at least once, as he is every year. Between the always lingering weight issues, and the fact that he hasn’t played a full season since 2002, limits his value for next year. That being said, he still has a chance to set a career high in rushing yards on Sunday, as he is only 85 yards behind his rookie year mark of 770 yards on the ground…

Maurice Hicks (7/22/78) – No fantasy impact…

Edgerrin James (8/1/78) – Edge hasn’t been as bad as most fantasy owners have thought this year, but the fact that he has a lot of mileage on his legs (13th all time in attempts, and should move up to 12th after this week), and only has 12 TD’s in two years with ARI (he had 14 in 2005 with INDY) throws up a ton of red flags going into next season. He’ll probably be drafted as an RB2, but I wouldn’t want him on my team…

Michael Bennett (8/13/78) – No fantasy impact…

Thomas Jones (8/19/78) – As I mentioned with Leon Washington, Jones is another risky pick for next year. Due to his inability to find the end zone, don’t expect Jones to be drafted in the Top 20 for RB’s. He’s another one with high mileage, with just under 1,650 career attempts. I expect him to continue a downward trend next year, as he probably only has another couple of years left in the league…

Reuben Droughns (8/21/78) – Droughns probably won’t be back with the Giants, as they already have Jacobs, Ward, and rookie Ahmad Bradshaw. At best, Droughns will be a handcuff elsewhere. In other words, he’s not worth anything more than a late round pick at best next year…

Correll Buckhalter (10/6/78) – Buckhalter is signed through the 2008 season, so look for another year of being fantasy stud Brian Westbrook’s backup (and essential handcuff). Buckhalter has been a perfectly acceptable backup this year, with around 300 yards rushing, and 4 TD’s. Again, I wouldn’t bother drafting him unless you have Westbrook on your roster…

Travis Henry (10/29/78) – Even though he signed a 5 year deal with the Broncos in 2007, I expect Henry to be on his 3rd team in 3 years in 2008. As I mentioned earlier, I just can’t see the Broncos wasting millions in cap space on Henry when they have a much cheaper alternative in Selvin Young. If he latches on as a starter elsewhere, he’ll definitely be drafted as a RB2, but don’t expect him to go in the Top15, as he did in many leagues this year…

LaMont Jordan (11/11/78) – Jordan will be released by the Raiders at some point in the coming months, as they already have a veteran back in Dominic Rhodes, a young back in rookie Michael Bush, who will be competing for the starting job next year, as well as Justin Fargas, who played very well as the starter. Jordan has relatively low mileage given his age (792 carries in 97 games), but I don’t expect him to be signed to be a starter by anyone. Instead, he’ll probably accept a 1 year as a backup with a team that is in need of a veteran back…

Deuce McAllister (12/27/78) – McAllister burned many fantasy owners (myself included) by tearing an ACL for the 2nd time in 3 years. Although McAllister is signed through 2012, he’s not guaranteed to make the Saints next year, as they already have Reggie Bush, as well as Aaron Stecker, who has been solid in relief of the other two in the past few weeks. If Deuce makes the team, it’ll probably be a timeshare between him and Bush again, with the split leaning more towards Bush. Either way, expect his draft value to be a lot lower next year…

Heath Evans (12/30/78) – No fantasy impact…

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Top 10 Receivers

Below is my list of the Top 10 greatest receivers in the history of the NFL. The list is based on what I've seen, heard and read since watching football over 20 years ago. Feel free to agree or disagree in the comments section.

NOTE: The list goes down in order to the #1 wide receiver of all time.

10. Steve Largent
Largent did not have a lot of physical skills, but he ran routes better than perhaps any other player in league history and had incredible hands. Largent was thought to be too small for the NFL and was almost cut in his rookie season before being traded to Seattle at the end of the 1976 preseason. Largent went on to become one of the most productive receivers in the history of pro football, retiring as the all-time leader in receptions (819), receiving yards (13,089) and receiving touchdowns (100). Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1980’s, Largent is one of just seven players to catch at least 100 touchdown passes in a career and went over 1,000 yards eight times, a league record at the time of his retirement. The sure-handed Largent caught at least one pass in 177 consecutive games at one point in his 14-year career, a NFL record that was later broken by several players, including Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Largent played on many average Seahawk teams and only appeared in seven post-season games, but did fairly well with a pair of 100-yard games and four touchdowns.

9. Tim Brown
Brown played 17 seasons in the NFL and put up some great numbers, currently ranking second in receiving yards (14,934), third in receptions (1,094) and like Steve Largent one of only seven players with 100+ touchdown catches. Brown might have put up even better receiving stats, but was used primarily to return punts and kickoffs early in his career. The former Heisman Trophy winner was in fact a great on punt and kickoff returns, leading the league in kickoff yardage as a rookie and in punt yardage in 1994 and is fifth all time in punt yardage with 3,320 yards in his career. Brown went over 1,000 yards nine times in his career, tied for second in league history, and is tied for third with 11 seasons of at least 50 receptions. The nine-time Pro Bowler never truly dominated, although he led the league in receptions in 1997 (104) and finished second that season in receiving yards (1,408). Despite playing in three AFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl, Brown was not much of a factor in those four games, totaling just 17 receptions for 147 yards with no touchdowns. Brown only scored three times in 12 career post-season games, but was a poster boy for consistency during the regular season (caught at least one pass in 179 straight games at one point in his career) and that makes him worthy of this list.

8. Lance Allworth
Allworth dominated the American Football League (AFL) in the 1960’s and was the first player from that league to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Nicknamed “Bambi” for his speed and grace, Allworth posted seven 1,000-yard seasons in his 11-year career and was named All-AFL seven times. Allworth achieved a rarity for wide receivers in 1965 when he won the triple crown of receiving, recording 69 catches for 1,602 yards (23.2 average) and 14 touchdowns. Allworth went over 200 yards receiving in a game five times in his career, an impressive feat that has never been topped in NFL history, not even by the explosive Jerry Rice. Traded to the Cowboys towards the end of his career, Allworth helped Dallas win a championship in 1971 and caught a touchdown pass in Super Bowl VI. “Bambi” averaged a spectacular 18.9 yards per catch over his career and is tied for 11th all time with 85 receiving touchdowns, but more remarkable is the fact that Allworth did not play in today’s modern era of exaggerated passing numbers and still averaged 75.5 receiving yards per game (seventh all time).

7. Terrell Owens
Owens has the resume to be higher on this list, but he’s never won a championship and his on and off the field antics somewhat take away from his accomplishments. In terms of physical talent, Owens is one of the most gifted receivers in the history of the NFL. Owens is moving in on Cris Carter for second on the all time list for touchdown receptions in a career with 129 scores. Three times in his 12-year career has Owens led the league in touchdown catches with his best season coming in 2001 when he grabbed 16 scores for the 49ers. Ironically, the best game of Owens’ career happened in Jerry Rice’s final home game in San Francisco and it was a record-breaking performance. In that 2000 game, a 17-0 victory over Chicago, Owens hauled in a single-game record 20 passes and finished with a career-high 283 yards. Owens is 10th all time in receiving yards with 13,070, but barring injury should move into the Top Five by the end of 2008 and will probably join the elite 1,000-reception club in around a season and a half. Owens is 34-years old, but still remains an explosive player, although he has never had great hands and has really struggled with drops over the last few seasons.

6. Michael Irvin
Irvin’s nickname, “The Playmaker” was appropriate, especially in the post-season where is he is second all-time in receptions (86), receiving yards (1,315) and 100-yard games (6) behind only the great Jerry Rice. Irvin caught eight career touchdowns in the playoffs and grabbed 12 passes against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game in 1994, tied for the second most ever in a single post-season game. “The Playmaker” was great in the Super Bowl too, snagging six passes for 114 yards with a pair of touchdowns in a win over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVII and finishing with 16 receptions for 255 yards in three Super Bowl appearances. A member of the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Irvin was a master of the 100-yard game with 47 in just 159 career games. The flamboyant Irvin holds the NFL record for most 100-yard games in a season (11) and is tied with Charley Hennigan for the most consecutive games hitting the century mark (7). Irvin was never a huge touchdown scorer, but the Cowboys ran the ball brilliantly inside the red zone with Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman threw 20+ touchdown passes in a season just once. Irvin did manage to catch 65 touchdown passes in his career, including 10 in 1995 – the same season in which he had a career-high 111 receptions for 1,603 yards.

5. Cris Carter
Carter was one of the most graceful and acrobatic receivers the game has ever seen. Not blessed with great speed, Carter ran precise routes and used his size and leaping ability to outmuscle defensive backs. Carter finished his career with 1,101 receptions and scored 130 touchdowns, trailing just Jerry Rice in both categories on the NFL’s all-time list. Carter’s best two years came in 1994 and 1995 when he caught 122 passes each season (single season record in 1994 until Herman Moore caught 123 in 1995) and scored a combined 24 touchdowns. Carter was a touchdown machine between 1995 and 1999 when he recorded 65 scores, leading the league in touchdown receptions three times over that five-year span. Although Carter never won a Super Bowl, he was a member of one of the greatest offenses in league history – the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. During that season Minnesota scored a league-record 556 points and Carter was a huge part with 78 receptions and 12 touchdowns. The Vikings were upset in the NFC Title Game, missing a chance to play the defending champion Denver Broncos in what might have been one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever. Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Carter was very good in the playoffs in general, grabbing eight touchdowns in 12 post-season games with the Vikings.

4. Randy Moss
Moss will be in the Hall of Fame one day and he might even get somewhat close to several of Jerry Rice’s receiving records. In just his 10th year in the league and at the relatively young age of 30, Moss has already caught 122 touchdown passes and is the only receiver in the history of pro football to post three different seasons of 17+ touchdown receptions. One of Moss’ best seasons came in 1998 when he set a rookie record with 17 touchdown receptions, finishing the campaign with 69 catches for 1,313 yards. “The Freak” has led the NFL in receiving touchdowns four times, has posted a pair of 100-catch seasons and if not for ridiculous years by Marvin Harrison in 2002 and Torry Holt in 2003, he would have been the league leader in receiving yards, finishing second both years. Moss is also the only player in league history to begin a career with six straight seasons over 1,000 yards and is already 3rd all time with 54 games of 100+ yards. Moss has some baggage though – he’s admitted to taking plays off and has had some other minor on and off the field issues throughout his career. However, the only thing holding Moss back from being higher on this list is a Super Bowl ring, something he might get with the 2007 Patriots – the most prolific offense in league history.

3. Marvin Harrison
Harrison gets the nod for third place on this list over Randy Moss because has won a Super Bowl while Moss has not and Harrison has been much more consistent over his career. Harrison does not make #2 on the list because of one key reason – he has not produced much of anything in 14 post-season games. In fact, Harrison’s playoff resume is awful for a receiver of his caliber with just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns, all coming in the same game. Harrison has gone over 75 yards receiving in a post-season game just two times and has grabbed more than five passes only twice. Between a pair of AFC Conference Championship Games and Super Bowl XLI, Harrison has 12 receptions for 119 yards with zero touchdowns. Despite his playoff failures, Harrison is a hell of a receiver. Harrison is the only player in NFL history with four consecutive seasons of 100+ catches and eight straight campaigns of 10+ touchdowns. The 12-year veteran owns the league record for the most receptions in a season with 143 grabs in 2002 and despite missing 11 games this year with a knee injury, he is still the all-time leader in average number of catches per season (86.8). Harrison most surely would have moved into second place on the all-time receiving list (currently at 13,994 yards - 990 behind Tim Brown) if not for the injury.

2. Don Hutson
Hutson claims the #2 spot on this list because he was the NFL’s first great wide receiver and innovated the position, dominating in an era of very little passing. Hutson created many of the pass routes that are run today as well as a variety of fakes and moves that receivers still use almost 70 years later. Playing 11 seasons, Hutson held 18 NFL records at the time of his retirement in 1945. Among his many great records none are more impressive than Hutson leading the NFL in receptions on eight different occasions, in receiving yards seven times and in receiving touchdowns an unfathomable nine times. Hutson helped the Packers win three NFL championships and won the league MVP in back-to-back seasons in the early 1940’s. Hutson’s best season came in his 1942 MVP campaign when he caught 74 passes for 1,211 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdowns. Hutson caught 99 touchdown passes in just 116 career games and is the all-time leader in receiving touchdowns per game (0.85).

1. Jerry Rice
For such a difficult list to comprise, Rice was an easy choice as the best receiver of all time because he might be the greatest PLAYER ever to step onto a pro football field. It would be ridiculous to discuss all of Rice’s records because there are so many, but perhaps Rice’s greatest individual achievement came in the strike-shortened 1987 season when he caught an NFL record 22 touchdown passes in only 12 games. Rice also scored on a rushing touchdown in 1987 to give him 23 scores for the season, nearly averaging two touchdowns per game. In fact, Rice was terrific on reverses and end-arounds as he rushed for more yards than any other receiver in NFL history (645 yards) and finished with 10 rushing touchdowns over his career. Rice owns every major receiving record by a wide margin, but more impressively is the fact that he is all-time leader in touchdowns (207), yards from scrimmage (23,540) and all-purpose yards (23,546) as a receiver. To put Rice’s ability to score in perspective, he is the only non-kicker to rank in the Top 25 on the NFL’s all-time scoring list. The durable and consistent Rice only missed 17 games in his 20-year career with 14 coming in 1997 when he tore his ACL and the other three in 1987 because of the strike. Rice was also a major part of multiple championship teams, winning three Super Bowls with the 49ers between the 1980’s and 1990’s and playing in another Super Bowl with Oakland in 2002. Rice, who went to 13 Pro Bowls and was named All-Pro 12 times, won the MVP of Super Bowl XXIII with 11 receptions for 215 yards and has scored more points (48) than any other player in Super Bowl history.

NOTABLE OMISSIONS (in no particular order):

Torry Holt
Holt won a Super Bowl, is the all-time leader in receiving yards per game (83.5) and is the only player in league history to post six straight seasons of 1,300+ yards. Holt has scored just 71 touchdowns in his career, a relatively low amount for a nine-year player of his caliber. Holt is only 31 years old so he has plenty of time to crack this list, however.

James Lofton
Lofton put up some pretty impressive numbers over his 16-year career, finishing second on the all-time receiving list with 14,004 yards. A true deep threat, Lofton was even successful late in his career as he became the first player in league history to have a 1,000-yard season at the age of 35 years old. For some reason Lofton was not much of a scorer (75 career touchdowns) and that is the main reason he did not make the Top 10 over Steve Largent.

Andre Reed
Reed is in the Top 10 all time in receptions (951), receiving yards (13,198) and touchdowns (87), but never finished in the top three in any of those categories in a single season. Reed had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career so although he was very good player, he just does not have the "juice" to make this list.