BEN ROETHLISBERGER (ankle) is the emergency quarterback at Baltimore. CHARLIE BATCH will start for the Steelers.
HINES WARD will not play against Baltimore because the Steelers do not have much to play for other than the #3 seed in the AFC.
MUSA SMITH will start against Pittsburgh with WILLIS MCGAHEE and MIKE ANDERSON both inactive. The Steelers are tough against the run, but they probably will sit key starters on defense at some point in the game.
KELLEN CLEMENS (shoulder/ribs) is active against Kansas City. The Chiefs have defended the pass very well lately so Clemens is not the greatest play of the week.
JERRICHO COTCHERY (finger) and BRAD SMITH (back) are both active against the Chiefs. With Laveranues Coles on the IR, Cotchery and Smith will get most of the looks in the passing game.
BRODIE CROYLE (hand) will start against the Jets. Croyle has not played that well this season and has yet to win a game as a starter, although the Jets' defense is nothing special.
KURT WARNER (elbow) and LARRY FITZGERALD (groin) are both active against St. Louis. Fitzgerald is been banged up over the last couple of games and could take a back seat to a more healthy Anquan Boldin again this week.
TERRY GLENN (knee) is active at Washington. Glenn has not played this year and he probably won't be on the field the entire game so do not expect much.
BRANDON STOKLEY (knee) will not play against Minnesota.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Injury and Status Update for Week 17 Early Games
MAURICE JONES-DREW and FRED TAYLOR are inactive at Houston. The Jaguars do not have much to play for with their playoff position set so they decided to rest their key runners. LABRANDON TOEFIELD will start and is worth a look if you are in need of a running back this week.
DAVID GARRARD is active, but will not start at Houston. Like Jones-Drew and Taylor, the Jaguars are not taking any chances with a key member of their offense. QUINN GRAY will start in Garrard's place.
BRIAN WESTBROOK (knee) is active against Buffalo. Westbrook has had a fantastic season and should continue that on Sunday because the Bills are really hurting on defense with a variety of injuries.
AARON STECKER (toe) is active at Chicago. Stecker is definitely not 100 percent healthy and will probably lose some carries to PIERRE THOMAS, but he's available if you need him.
DONALD DRIVER and GREG JENNINGS (ankle) are inactive against Detroit. While there is nothing wrong with Driver and he's just being held out in a meaningless game, Jennings has missed practice this week so no big surprise with him. JAMES JONES and RUVELL MARTIN should see more looks from Green Bay's quarterbacks.
BRETT FAVRE will play against Detroit, but with many key offensive players not active, Favre might not see much action. Proceed with caution if you're a Favre owner.
DONALD LEE will not play against Detroit. Like Donald Driver, the Packers are sitting some of their key players in a non-important game.
JEFF GARCIA, EARNEST GRAHAM (ankle), JOEY GALLOWAY (shoulder) and IKE HILLIARD (knee) will all not play against Carolina. The Bucs are taking a cautious approach with their key offensive players because their playoff position is locked in. LUKE MCCOWN and MICHAEL PITTMAN will start at quarterback and running back for Tampa Bay and could be a decent options if you are looking for last-minute options.
FRANK GORE (ankle) is active at Cleveland. Gore could have some major success against a suspect Browns' rush defense, although it does not help Gore that CHRIS WEINKE is starting for SHAUN HILL (back).
DEION BRANCH (calf) is inactive at Atlanta. Most of Seattle's starters won't play much anyway with nothing to gain or lose playoff wise, but Branch won't see the field at all.
RON DAYNE (ankle) is active against Jacksonville, but DARIUS WALKER will start again. Dayne did not see any carries last week so he might be limited again against the Jaguars.
MATT SCHAUB (shoulder) is the emergency quarterback against Jacksonville. SAGE ROSENFELS will start once again and could be very productive against a defense that figures to rest many of its starters.
DAVID GARRARD is active, but will not start at Houston. Like Jones-Drew and Taylor, the Jaguars are not taking any chances with a key member of their offense. QUINN GRAY will start in Garrard's place.
BRIAN WESTBROOK (knee) is active against Buffalo. Westbrook has had a fantastic season and should continue that on Sunday because the Bills are really hurting on defense with a variety of injuries.
AARON STECKER (toe) is active at Chicago. Stecker is definitely not 100 percent healthy and will probably lose some carries to PIERRE THOMAS, but he's available if you need him.
DONALD DRIVER and GREG JENNINGS (ankle) are inactive against Detroit. While there is nothing wrong with Driver and he's just being held out in a meaningless game, Jennings has missed practice this week so no big surprise with him. JAMES JONES and RUVELL MARTIN should see more looks from Green Bay's quarterbacks.
BRETT FAVRE will play against Detroit, but with many key offensive players not active, Favre might not see much action. Proceed with caution if you're a Favre owner.
DONALD LEE will not play against Detroit. Like Donald Driver, the Packers are sitting some of their key players in a non-important game.
JEFF GARCIA, EARNEST GRAHAM (ankle), JOEY GALLOWAY (shoulder) and IKE HILLIARD (knee) will all not play against Carolina. The Bucs are taking a cautious approach with their key offensive players because their playoff position is locked in. LUKE MCCOWN and MICHAEL PITTMAN will start at quarterback and running back for Tampa Bay and could be a decent options if you are looking for last-minute options.
FRANK GORE (ankle) is active at Cleveland. Gore could have some major success against a suspect Browns' rush defense, although it does not help Gore that CHRIS WEINKE is starting for SHAUN HILL (back).
DEION BRANCH (calf) is inactive at Atlanta. Most of Seattle's starters won't play much anyway with nothing to gain or lose playoff wise, but Branch won't see the field at all.
RON DAYNE (ankle) is active against Jacksonville, but DARIUS WALKER will start again. Dayne did not see any carries last week so he might be limited again against the Jaguars.
MATT SCHAUB (shoulder) is the emergency quarterback against Jacksonville. SAGE ROSENFELS will start once again and could be very productive against a defense that figures to rest many of its starters.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Random Thoughts from Around the NFL
Is there a more bizarre team in the league than the Giants? They’re just 3-4 in the Meadowlands, but an impressive 7-1 on the road. Although four of their seven wins away from home were against cupcake teams.
If someone told you before the season that Tom Brady would throw about 50 touchdown passes, Randy Moss would approach Jerry Rice’s NFL record of 22 receiving touchdowns and the Pats would go 16-0, what would you say?
This just in – The Home Shopping Network, MTV, Oxygen, Bravo and Lifetime for Women will all be broadcasting Saturday’s New England-New York Giants game.
If the Seahawks had home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I have no doubt that they’d win the NFC. They are a completely different team at home, more so than most NFL franchises.
There is a lot of nonsense going around about how Cleveland should bench Derek Anderson in a somewhat meaningless season finale (their playoff fate is solely based on what happens with the Titans) so he does not suffer a potential injury. The theory is that if Anderson got hurt then his trade value would be severely diminished in the off-season. My question is - what makes the Browns think that rookie Brady Quinn is their future? Anderson’s play has not been as good in the second half, but he looks like a potential franchise quarterback and we know very little about Quinn other than he dropped significantly in April’s NFL Draft.
Here is more on Derek Anderson and an interesting stat as well. If Anderson throws at least two touchdowns on Sunday against San Francisco, he’ll become the fifth quarterback this season with 30+ touchdown passes. There have NEVER been five quarterbacks with at least 30 touchdowns in the same season in the rich history of pro football (four quarterbacks with 30+ has only happened twice). Furthermore, in 15 of the last 30 years (since the league went to a 16-game schedule), there has been ZERO or ONE quarterback with 30+ touchdown passes in a particular season. Looks like the NFL is a passing league.
The Chargers are a joke. Anyone that thinks their late-season success will translate into anything is clueless. Philip Rivers is an average quarterback and Norv Turner is overrated as a coach – not a winning formula in the playoffs.
We might not have a 1,500-yard rusher in the league this season and that would be the first time since 1993 when Emmitt Smith led the NFL with 1,486 rushing yards. But can you name the player with the lowest total to win a rushing crown since the NFL moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978 (not including strike seasons)? If you guessed Barry Sanders, you’re a genius. The great Sanders ran for only 1,304 yards in 1990 yet still led the entire league in rushing.
While doing research on great wide receivers of the past I came across a very surprising stat. Buffalo’s Andre Reed, a potential Hall of Famer, had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career. With Jim Kelly and all the offense those Bills’ teams produced, I find that to be an amazingly low number.
You know it’s an interesting NFL season when two tight ends (Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez) are in the Top 10 in receiving yards this late in the year and one of them is not named Antonio Gates.
I swear to God if I had a vote for Offensive Player of the Year, I would give serious consideration to Atlanta’s Roddy White. The Falcons have only scored 20 touchdowns as a team all season (Randy Moss has 21) and White has accounted for five of them. The quarterback play has been abysmal with the suspect trio of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich and Chris Redman and White still has 78 receptions for 1,140 yards with five 100-yard games.
I am not sure if Drew Brees gets enough credit as a quarterback. He (and the Saints) got off to a very rough start this season with just one touchdown and seven interceptions in the first three games. Since that point, Brees has tossed 24 touchdowns against only nine picks and the team has gone a respectable 7-5 over that span without much of a running game. Brees has averaged 26 touchdown passes over the last four seasons and has gone well over 4,000 yards in each of the last two campaigns.
If someone told you before the season that Tom Brady would throw about 50 touchdown passes, Randy Moss would approach Jerry Rice’s NFL record of 22 receiving touchdowns and the Pats would go 16-0, what would you say?
This just in – The Home Shopping Network, MTV, Oxygen, Bravo and Lifetime for Women will all be broadcasting Saturday’s New England-New York Giants game.
If the Seahawks had home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I have no doubt that they’d win the NFC. They are a completely different team at home, more so than most NFL franchises.
There is a lot of nonsense going around about how Cleveland should bench Derek Anderson in a somewhat meaningless season finale (their playoff fate is solely based on what happens with the Titans) so he does not suffer a potential injury. The theory is that if Anderson got hurt then his trade value would be severely diminished in the off-season. My question is - what makes the Browns think that rookie Brady Quinn is their future? Anderson’s play has not been as good in the second half, but he looks like a potential franchise quarterback and we know very little about Quinn other than he dropped significantly in April’s NFL Draft.
Here is more on Derek Anderson and an interesting stat as well. If Anderson throws at least two touchdowns on Sunday against San Francisco, he’ll become the fifth quarterback this season with 30+ touchdown passes. There have NEVER been five quarterbacks with at least 30 touchdowns in the same season in the rich history of pro football (four quarterbacks with 30+ has only happened twice). Furthermore, in 15 of the last 30 years (since the league went to a 16-game schedule), there has been ZERO or ONE quarterback with 30+ touchdown passes in a particular season. Looks like the NFL is a passing league.
The Chargers are a joke. Anyone that thinks their late-season success will translate into anything is clueless. Philip Rivers is an average quarterback and Norv Turner is overrated as a coach – not a winning formula in the playoffs.
We might not have a 1,500-yard rusher in the league this season and that would be the first time since 1993 when Emmitt Smith led the NFL with 1,486 rushing yards. But can you name the player with the lowest total to win a rushing crown since the NFL moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978 (not including strike seasons)? If you guessed Barry Sanders, you’re a genius. The great Sanders ran for only 1,304 yards in 1990 yet still led the entire league in rushing.
While doing research on great wide receivers of the past I came across a very surprising stat. Buffalo’s Andre Reed, a potential Hall of Famer, had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career. With Jim Kelly and all the offense those Bills’ teams produced, I find that to be an amazingly low number.
You know it’s an interesting NFL season when two tight ends (Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez) are in the Top 10 in receiving yards this late in the year and one of them is not named Antonio Gates.
I swear to God if I had a vote for Offensive Player of the Year, I would give serious consideration to Atlanta’s Roddy White. The Falcons have only scored 20 touchdowns as a team all season (Randy Moss has 21) and White has accounted for five of them. The quarterback play has been abysmal with the suspect trio of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich and Chris Redman and White still has 78 receptions for 1,140 yards with five 100-yard games.
I am not sure if Drew Brees gets enough credit as a quarterback. He (and the Saints) got off to a very rough start this season with just one touchdown and seven interceptions in the first three games. Since that point, Brees has tossed 24 touchdowns against only nine picks and the team has gone a respectable 7-5 over that span without much of a running game. Brees has averaged 26 touchdown passes over the last four seasons and has gone well over 4,000 yards in each of the last two campaigns.
Why does your league use Week 17???
Because there are a lot of meaningless games this week, not to mention the fact that most fantasy leagues end on Week 16, THIMD did not bother with rankings this week. And in place of today's usual column (Start or Bench?), we decided to focus on the games where there is potential for normal starters to be iffy at best, as a lot of teams will be sitting players for parts (if not all) of each of these games. Our best is as good as yours as to how many snaps these players take, but we were willing to give it a shot...
New England at NY Giants
I’ll start with the G-Men first, as the amount of time NE’s starters play probably depend on what the Giants do. It’s just a hunch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Coughlin leaves most of his starters in for the first half, just to see how well they do. If the game stays close, I could see Eli coming out in the 2nd half. The only guy that probably won’t see much action at all is Burress. Boss will likely get a lot of looks, as they’ll want to see how much he’ll be able to contribute in the playoffs. If the Giants go down big early, all fantasy relevant players (is Eli relevant?) will be sitting on the sidelines in the 2nd half at the latest…
Brady will get his 2 TD’s, Moss will get at least 1 TD, the Pats will win the game, et cetera, et cetera. But as I mentioned before, if the game gets out of hand before half time, and Brady/Moss have the records already, look for a healthy dose of Heath Evans, the Matt’s at QB, and so on. I just can’t see Belichick taking any chances if a victory has already been sealed. I’d still start Brady, Moss, Maroney, and even Welker, but don’t expect any of them to play the entire game...
Carolina at Tampa Bay
The Panthers are playing for pride at this point, but also taking a look at their roster for next year. This means that Matt Moore will get all of the snaps at QB, and DeAngelo Williams is worth a start, as the Bucs have nothing to play for, and will likely rest a lot of their key defensive players. Steve Smith will have a good chance to have his 2nd straight 100+ yard game, and would be in my top 12 if we had done rankings this week…
As for the Bucs, I wouldn’t bother with any of the “3 G’s” this week (Garcia, Graham, Galloway). Instead, guys like Pittman, Bennett, and McCown will be shouldering the load. McCown may be worth a start if you’re in a deep league, but I wouldn’t bother with either of the RB’s, as neither of them will likely have enough touches to make an impact (although I expect one of them to score)…
Jacksonville at Houston
Like the Bucs, the Jags are playing for nothing, as they have clinched the 5 spot for next week’s playoff matchup, either at PITT or SD. Garrard may play a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he only played the first quarter. And needless to say, you don’t want Quinn Gray on your team… As for the RB’s, Taylor will only get a few carries (if any), and MJD may see some increased playing time, but look for Greg Jones to be a deep sleeper this week, as he has a knack of finding the end zone, and does have 2 career 100 yard rushing games… The receivers are always a crapshoot anyways, so unless you have a hunch that this is the week Matt Jones breaks out, stay away…
The Texans have a chance to finish at .500 for the first time in the history of the team. As I mentioned in my RB column, Ron Dayne has a shot at setting a career high in rushing yards, although he had no carries last week. I’m not quite sure who Kubiak plans on starting this week, but Dayne should be in line for a decent game if he gets 15+ carries… I’d still start Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, as their values are both boosted this week (I’d put AJ in my top 8 at the minimum)…
Seattle at Atlanta
Again, it’s a game of a team that has nothing to play for (SEA) against a team that is playing for nothing but pride. For SEA, Hass may play no more than 1 quarter, rendering him virtually useless in fantasy (although he is playing ATL…). And if this is the case, I’d rather start Redman than Frye or Wallace, depending on who gets the snaps. Look for Leonard Weaver to have a decent game, as it is highly unlikely that MoMo or Alexander will have more than 10 touches each… I don’t know what to expect at WR, but I would still start Branch and Engram, as well as D.J. Hackett, as they’ll likely get enough snaps to make a difference for your team…
As for the woeful Falcons, Redman may actually be worth using, as he’ll be facing a SEA pass defense that will likely be starting a lot of backups in the 2nd half. In addition, this will finally be the week that Jerrious Norwood has a big game. Roddy White is still safe to play, and Michael Jenkins may even have 60+ yards…
Detroit at Green Bay
Again, the Packers have nothing to play for, as they have locked up the #2 seed for the playoffs. Favre will definitely play some to keep his consecutive game streak going, but I can’t see him finishing the game. Instead, Craig Nall has the benefit of facing a terrible DET pass defense, and should put up 200 yards and a TD. Ryan Grant will probably only play a half at most, but given the opponent, I’d still take a chance on him. Brandon Jackson will likely get the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half… Greg Jennings will probably sit this one out, giving James Jones an opportunity to prove his worth as GB’s #3 WR for next season…
For Detroit, they’re looking to finish off a terrible 2nd half on a 2 game winning streak, and I expect all of their starters from last week (Kitna, Duckett, Megatron, Furrey, McDonald) to play a full game, making all of them fine to start. I’m not that big on Duckett though. Former GB QB J.T. O’Sullivan may end up getting a few snaps against his old team, although I wouldn’t go near him in the deepest of leagues…
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The Steelers have already clinched the AFC North Division so chances are they will rest some of their key starters, especially players like Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, ankle). Normally, the difference between the #3 and #4 seed is not a big deal, but this year the #4 spot means facing Jacksonville orNew England in Foxboro in the second round so the Steelers should be motivated on Sunday. can still claim the #3 seed in the AFC with a win and loss by in the first round of the playoffs and
Look for Roethlisberger to play a quarter or half at most with players like Najeh Davenport, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward playing a little longer. In case you’re in a super deep league or extremely desperate, Gary Russell might be worth a pickup. He split carries with Laurence Maroney in 2004 at the University of Minnesota and led the Steelers in rushing during the pre-season so he has some talent. He’ll backup Davenport and if the game gets ugly, he could see significant work.
For Baltimore, everyone that is healthy should play, but they have several key injuries. Willis McGahee (ribs) has been ruled out so Musa Smith will start and could put up decent numbers because he is a good receiver out of the backfield. Kyle Boller (concussion) probably won’t play so rookie Troy Smith should start again. Smith struggled last week and does not appear to be a good start against Pittsburgh.
Dallas at Washington
The Cowboys have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs so most of their starters will be rested on Sunday. Although, coach Wade Phillips has indicated that he is going to do everything in his power to win the game for his team and the integrity of the league. Who knows exactly what that means?
One thing is for sure - Terrell Owens (ankle) definitely won’t play so he can rest and be close to full strength for the post-season. Regardless of Philips’ comments, there have been some rumors that Tony Romo might play a little longer than normal for a meaningless season finale to get some work with Terry Glenn (knee), who is set to make his 2007 debut. It’s hard to imagine Romo playing more than a half under any circumstance, however, so proceed with caution. Expect the same thing for key offensive players like Jason Witten and Marion Barber. The NFL Network reported on Thursday that Barber will hardly play at all so keep an eye on his status right until kickoff for any breaking news.
The Redskins will make the playoffs with a victory so feel free to use any of their players if you normally do. Todd Collins will start again for Jason Campbell (knee) and the Walpole, MA native has played well in the last six quarters. Clinton Portis has had an up-and-down season, but has been hot over the last few games while receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El have picked up their production as well.
San Diego at Oakland
The Chargers will be the #3 seed in the AFC with a win, but it’s unclear how important that position is to them. It would mean avoiding Jacksonville in the first round and New England in the second, but chances are most of their key offensive starters will be rested at least for the second half.
Philip Rivers (knee) is banged up so it would be very surprising if he played too much anyway and LaDainian Tomlinson is too valuable to be left on the field for too long. Michael Turner and/or Darren Sproles might not be a bad play for fantasy owners that are thin at RB in Week 17 and do not have many options. Even if the Chargers were not resting starters, Antonio Gates is unusable at this point because of injuries and poor play.
Oakland will play all of their healthy starters and take a look at young players like rookie JaMarcus Russell, who will make the first start of his career. Russell will probably struggle, however, so only start him if you are thin at QB or simply want to roll the dice. Dominic Rhodes was productive last week in a loss at Jacksonville and the Raiders do run the ball well so Rhodes might not be a bad play against a San Diego team that figures to rest some starters.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
The Colts cannot move up or down from the #2 spot in the AFC so they do not have much to play for. Coach Tony Dungy has already said that Manning won’t play more than the first half. In Dungy code that means Manning will play a quarter or less. If you are in dire straits at the QB position, Jim Sorgi could help you a bit because he’ll probably play around three quarters.
Expect Joseph Addai to not even play after he sat out the second half last week with a back injury. Kenton Keith should get an increased workload, but look for third-string Clifton Dawson to see a lot of action as well, especially in the second half.
Marvin Harrison (knee) might be physically ready to play, but it would be a major surprise if the Colts did not continue their trend of caution and sit the veteran wide receiver. Look for Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez (foot) to see very limited action.
The Titans need a win to make the playoffs and if they lose, they’re automatically out of contention. Vince Young has been shaky most of the year, but he’ll be going against a second-string Colts defense for most of the game. LenDale White and Chris Brown to a lesser degree should have big games in a must-win situation. Kickers are extremely difficult to predict, but Rob Bironas has had another great season and could get multiple field goal opportunities.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
A look ahead (2008 RB's)....
Heading into Week 17, there were a total of 95 RB’s with at least 20 carries this year. I decided to take a closer look according to age grouping.
Group B (26-29 years old) – 42 players.
Group C (30+ years old) – 11 players.
Cadillac Williams (4/21/82) – Williams has been injury prone, with 2 games missed in each of his first two seasons, and 12 games this year. Because of this, he does have low mileage on the legs, but with the breakout campaign by Earnest Graham, there may be a timeshare in TB (or Graham may have the job to himself), limiting Williams’ potential.
Group C
Kenny Watson (3/13/78) – Watson had a breakout year in 2007 with Rudi hobbled by injury. With rumors that Johnson will be released after this season, look for Watson to be the main beneficiary, as DeDe Dorsey does not have what it takes to be an every down back.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Top 10 Receivers
Below is my list of the Top 10 greatest receivers in the history of the NFL. The list is based on what I've seen, heard and read since watching football over 20 years ago. Feel free to agree or disagree in the comments section.
NOTE: The list goes down in order to the #1 wide receiver of all time.
10. Steve Largent
Largent did not have a lot of physical skills, but he ran routes better than perhaps any other player in league history and had incredible hands. Largent was thought to be too small for the NFL and was almost cut in his rookie season before being traded to Seattle at the end of the 1976 preseason. Largent went on to become one of the most productive receivers in the history of pro football, retiring as the all-time leader in receptions (819), receiving yards (13,089) and receiving touchdowns (100). Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1980’s, Largent is one of just seven players to catch at least 100 touchdown passes in a career and went over 1,000 yards eight times, a league record at the time of his retirement. The sure-handed Largent caught at least one pass in 177 consecutive games at one point in his 14-year career, a NFL record that was later broken by several players, including Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Largent played on many average Seahawk teams and only appeared in seven post-season games, but did fairly well with a pair of 100-yard games and four touchdowns.
9. Tim Brown
Brown played 17 seasons in the NFL and put up some great numbers, currently ranking second in receiving yards (14,934), third in receptions (1,094) and like Steve Largent one of only seven players with 100+ touchdown catches. Brown might have put up even better receiving stats, but was used primarily to return punts and kickoffs early in his career. The former Heisman Trophy winner was in fact a great on punt and kickoff returns, leading the league in kickoff yardage as a rookie and in punt yardage in 1994 and is fifth all time in punt yardage with 3,320 yards in his career. Brown went over 1,000 yards nine times in his career, tied for second in league history, and is tied for third with 11 seasons of at least 50 receptions. The nine-time Pro Bowler never truly dominated, although he led the league in receptions in 1997 (104) and finished second that season in receiving yards (1,408). Despite playing in three AFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl, Brown was not much of a factor in those four games, totaling just 17 receptions for 147 yards with no touchdowns. Brown only scored three times in 12 career post-season games, but was a poster boy for consistency during the regular season (caught at least one pass in 179 straight games at one point in his career) and that makes him worthy of this list.
8. Lance Allworth
Allworth dominated the American Football League (AFL) in the 1960’s and was the first player from that league to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Nicknamed “Bambi” for his speed and grace, Allworth posted seven 1,000-yard seasons in his 11-year career and was named All-AFL seven times. Allworth achieved a rarity for wide receivers in 1965 when he won the triple crown of receiving, recording 69 catches for 1,602 yards (23.2 average) and 14 touchdowns. Allworth went over 200 yards receiving in a game five times in his career, an impressive feat that has never been topped in NFL history, not even by the explosive Jerry Rice. Traded to the Cowboys towards the end of his career, Allworth helped Dallas win a championship in 1971 and caught a touchdown pass in Super Bowl VI. “Bambi” averaged a spectacular 18.9 yards per catch over his career and is tied for 11th all time with 85 receiving touchdowns, but more remarkable is the fact that Allworth did not play in today’s modern era of exaggerated passing numbers and still averaged 75.5 receiving yards per game (seventh all time).
7. Terrell Owens
Owens has the resume to be higher on this list, but he’s never won a championship and his on and off the field antics somewhat take away from his accomplishments. In terms of physical talent, Owens is one of the most gifted receivers in the history of the NFL. Owens is moving in on Cris Carter for second on the all time list for touchdown receptions in a career with 129 scores. Three times in his 12-year career has Owens led the league in touchdown catches with his best season coming in 2001 when he grabbed 16 scores for the 49ers. Ironically, the best game of Owens’ career happened in Jerry Rice’s final home game in San Francisco and it was a record-breaking performance. In that 2000 game, a 17-0 victory over Chicago, Owens hauled in a single-game record 20 passes and finished with a career-high 283 yards. Owens is 10th all time in receiving yards with 13,070, but barring injury should move into the Top Five by the end of 2008 and will probably join the elite 1,000-reception club in around a season and a half. Owens is 34-years old, but still remains an explosive player, although he has never had great hands and has really struggled with drops over the last few seasons.
6. Michael Irvin
Irvin’s nickname, “The Playmaker” was appropriate, especially in the post-season where is he is second all-time in receptions (86), receiving yards (1,315) and 100-yard games (6) behind only the great Jerry Rice. Irvin caught eight career touchdowns in the playoffs and grabbed 12 passes against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game in 1994, tied for the second most ever in a single post-season game. “The Playmaker” was great in the Super Bowl too, snagging six passes for 114 yards with a pair of touchdowns in a win over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVII and finishing with 16 receptions for 255 yards in three Super Bowl appearances. A member of the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Irvin was a master of the 100-yard game with 47 in just 159 career games. The flamboyant Irvin holds the NFL record for most 100-yard games in a season (11) and is tied with Charley Hennigan for the most consecutive games hitting the century mark (7). Irvin was never a huge touchdown scorer, but the Cowboys ran the ball brilliantly inside the red zone with Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman threw 20+ touchdown passes in a season just once. Irvin did manage to catch 65 touchdown passes in his career, including 10 in 1995 – the same season in which he had a career-high 111 receptions for 1,603 yards.
5. Cris Carter
Carter was one of the most graceful and acrobatic receivers the game has ever seen. Not blessed with great speed, Carter ran precise routes and used his size and leaping ability to outmuscle defensive backs. Carter finished his career with 1,101 receptions and scored 130 touchdowns, trailing just Jerry Rice in both categories on the NFL’s all-time list. Carter’s best two years came in 1994 and 1995 when he caught 122 passes each season (single season record in 1994 until Herman Moore caught 123 in 1995) and scored a combined 24 touchdowns. Carter was a touchdown machine between 1995 and 1999 when he recorded 65 scores, leading the league in touchdown receptions three times over that five-year span. Although Carter never won a Super Bowl, he was a member of one of the greatest offenses in league history – the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. During that season Minnesota scored a league-record 556 points and Carter was a huge part with 78 receptions and 12 touchdowns. The Vikings were upset in the NFC Title Game, missing a chance to play the defending champion Denver Broncos in what might have been one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever. Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Carter was very good in the playoffs in general, grabbing eight touchdowns in 12 post-season games with the Vikings.
4. Randy Moss
Moss will be in the Hall of Fame one day and he might even get somewhat close to several of Jerry Rice’s receiving records. In just his 10th year in the league and at the relatively young age of 30, Moss has already caught 122 touchdown passes and is the only receiver in the history of pro football to post three different seasons of 17+ touchdown receptions. One of Moss’ best seasons came in 1998 when he set a rookie record with 17 touchdown receptions, finishing the campaign with 69 catches for 1,313 yards. “The Freak” has led the NFL in receiving touchdowns four times, has posted a pair of 100-catch seasons and if not for ridiculous years by Marvin Harrison in 2002 and Torry Holt in 2003, he would have been the league leader in receiving yards, finishing second both years. Moss is also the only player in league history to begin a career with six straight seasons over 1,000 yards and is already 3rd all time with 54 games of 100+ yards. Moss has some baggage though – he’s admitted to taking plays off and has had some other minor on and off the field issues throughout his career. However, the only thing holding Moss back from being higher on this list is a Super Bowl ring, something he might get with the 2007 Patriots – the most prolific offense in league history.
3. Marvin Harrison
Harrison gets the nod for third place on this list over Randy Moss because has won a Super Bowl while Moss has not and Harrison has been much more consistent over his career. Harrison does not make #2 on the list because of one key reason – he has not produced much of anything in 14 post-season games. In fact, Harrison’s playoff resume is awful for a receiver of his caliber with just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns, all coming in the same game. Harrison has gone over 75 yards receiving in a post-season game just two times and has grabbed more than five passes only twice. Between a pair of AFC Conference Championship Games and Super Bowl XLI, Harrison has 12 receptions for 119 yards with zero touchdowns. Despite his playoff failures, Harrison is a hell of a receiver. Harrison is the only player in NFL history with four consecutive seasons of 100+ catches and eight straight campaigns of 10+ touchdowns. The 12-year veteran owns the league record for the most receptions in a season with 143 grabs in 2002 and despite missing 11 games this year with a knee injury, he is still the all-time leader in average number of catches per season (86.8). Harrison most surely would have moved into second place on the all-time receiving list (currently at 13,994 yards - 990 behind Tim Brown) if not for the injury.
2. Don Hutson
Hutson claims the #2 spot on this list because he was the NFL’s first great wide receiver and innovated the position, dominating in an era of very little passing. Hutson created many of the pass routes that are run today as well as a variety of fakes and moves that receivers still use almost 70 years later. Playing 11 seasons, Hutson held 18 NFL records at the time of his retirement in 1945. Among his many great records none are more impressive than Hutson leading the NFL in receptions on eight different occasions, in receiving yards seven times and in receiving touchdowns an unfathomable nine times. Hutson helped the Packers win three NFL championships and won the league MVP in back-to-back seasons in the early 1940’s. Hutson’s best season came in his 1942 MVP campaign when he caught 74 passes for 1,211 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdowns. Hutson caught 99 touchdown passes in just 116 career games and is the all-time leader in receiving touchdowns per game (0.85).
1. Jerry Rice
For such a difficult list to comprise, Rice was an easy choice as the best receiver of all time because he might be the greatest PLAYER ever to step onto a pro football field. It would be ridiculous to discuss all of Rice’s records because there are so many, but perhaps Rice’s greatest individual achievement came in the strike-shortened 1987 season when he caught an NFL record 22 touchdown passes in only 12 games. Rice also scored on a rushing touchdown in 1987 to give him 23 scores for the season, nearly averaging two touchdowns per game. In fact, Rice was terrific on reverses and end-arounds as he rushed for more yards than any other receiver in NFL history (645 yards) and finished with 10 rushing touchdowns over his career. Rice owns every major receiving record by a wide margin, but more impressively is the fact that he is all-time leader in touchdowns (207), yards from scrimmage (23,540) and all-purpose yards (23,546) as a receiver. To put Rice’s ability to score in perspective, he is the only non-kicker to rank in the Top 25 on the NFL’s all-time scoring list. The durable and consistent Rice only missed 17 games in his 20-year career with 14 coming in 1997 when he tore his ACL and the other three in 1987 because of the strike. Rice was also a major part of multiple championship teams, winning three Super Bowls with the 49ers between the 1980’s and 1990’s and playing in another Super Bowl with Oakland in 2002. Rice, who went to 13 Pro Bowls and was named All-Pro 12 times, won the MVP of Super Bowl XXIII with 11 receptions for 215 yards and has scored more points (48) than any other player in Super Bowl history.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS (in no particular order):
Torry Holt
Holt won a Super Bowl, is the all-time leader in receiving yards per game (83.5) and is the only player in league history to post six straight seasons of 1,300+ yards. Holt has scored just 71 touchdowns in his career, a relatively low amount for a nine-year player of his caliber. Holt is only 31 years old so he has plenty of time to crack this list, however.
James Lofton
Lofton put up some pretty impressive numbers over his 16-year career, finishing second on the all-time receiving list with 14,004 yards. A true deep threat, Lofton was even successful late in his career as he became the first player in league history to have a 1,000-yard season at the age of 35 years old. For some reason Lofton was not much of a scorer (75 career touchdowns) and that is the main reason he did not make the Top 10 over Steve Largent.
Andre Reed
Reed is in the Top 10 all time in receptions (951), receiving yards (13,198) and touchdowns (87), but never finished in the top three in any of those categories in a single season. Reed had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career so although he was very good player, he just does not have the "juice" to make this list.
NOTE: The list goes down in order to the #1 wide receiver of all time.
10. Steve Largent
Largent did not have a lot of physical skills, but he ran routes better than perhaps any other player in league history and had incredible hands. Largent was thought to be too small for the NFL and was almost cut in his rookie season before being traded to Seattle at the end of the 1976 preseason. Largent went on to become one of the most productive receivers in the history of pro football, retiring as the all-time leader in receptions (819), receiving yards (13,089) and receiving touchdowns (100). Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1980’s, Largent is one of just seven players to catch at least 100 touchdown passes in a career and went over 1,000 yards eight times, a league record at the time of his retirement. The sure-handed Largent caught at least one pass in 177 consecutive games at one point in his 14-year career, a NFL record that was later broken by several players, including Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Largent played on many average Seahawk teams and only appeared in seven post-season games, but did fairly well with a pair of 100-yard games and four touchdowns.
9. Tim Brown
Brown played 17 seasons in the NFL and put up some great numbers, currently ranking second in receiving yards (14,934), third in receptions (1,094) and like Steve Largent one of only seven players with 100+ touchdown catches. Brown might have put up even better receiving stats, but was used primarily to return punts and kickoffs early in his career. The former Heisman Trophy winner was in fact a great on punt and kickoff returns, leading the league in kickoff yardage as a rookie and in punt yardage in 1994 and is fifth all time in punt yardage with 3,320 yards in his career. Brown went over 1,000 yards nine times in his career, tied for second in league history, and is tied for third with 11 seasons of at least 50 receptions. The nine-time Pro Bowler never truly dominated, although he led the league in receptions in 1997 (104) and finished second that season in receiving yards (1,408). Despite playing in three AFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl, Brown was not much of a factor in those four games, totaling just 17 receptions for 147 yards with no touchdowns. Brown only scored three times in 12 career post-season games, but was a poster boy for consistency during the regular season (caught at least one pass in 179 straight games at one point in his career) and that makes him worthy of this list.
8. Lance Allworth
Allworth dominated the American Football League (AFL) in the 1960’s and was the first player from that league to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Nicknamed “Bambi” for his speed and grace, Allworth posted seven 1,000-yard seasons in his 11-year career and was named All-AFL seven times. Allworth achieved a rarity for wide receivers in 1965 when he won the triple crown of receiving, recording 69 catches for 1,602 yards (23.2 average) and 14 touchdowns. Allworth went over 200 yards receiving in a game five times in his career, an impressive feat that has never been topped in NFL history, not even by the explosive Jerry Rice. Traded to the Cowboys towards the end of his career, Allworth helped Dallas win a championship in 1971 and caught a touchdown pass in Super Bowl VI. “Bambi” averaged a spectacular 18.9 yards per catch over his career and is tied for 11th all time with 85 receiving touchdowns, but more remarkable is the fact that Allworth did not play in today’s modern era of exaggerated passing numbers and still averaged 75.5 receiving yards per game (seventh all time).
7. Terrell Owens
Owens has the resume to be higher on this list, but he’s never won a championship and his on and off the field antics somewhat take away from his accomplishments. In terms of physical talent, Owens is one of the most gifted receivers in the history of the NFL. Owens is moving in on Cris Carter for second on the all time list for touchdown receptions in a career with 129 scores. Three times in his 12-year career has Owens led the league in touchdown catches with his best season coming in 2001 when he grabbed 16 scores for the 49ers. Ironically, the best game of Owens’ career happened in Jerry Rice’s final home game in San Francisco and it was a record-breaking performance. In that 2000 game, a 17-0 victory over Chicago, Owens hauled in a single-game record 20 passes and finished with a career-high 283 yards. Owens is 10th all time in receiving yards with 13,070, but barring injury should move into the Top Five by the end of 2008 and will probably join the elite 1,000-reception club in around a season and a half. Owens is 34-years old, but still remains an explosive player, although he has never had great hands and has really struggled with drops over the last few seasons.
6. Michael Irvin
Irvin’s nickname, “The Playmaker” was appropriate, especially in the post-season where is he is second all-time in receptions (86), receiving yards (1,315) and 100-yard games (6) behind only the great Jerry Rice. Irvin caught eight career touchdowns in the playoffs and grabbed 12 passes against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game in 1994, tied for the second most ever in a single post-season game. “The Playmaker” was great in the Super Bowl too, snagging six passes for 114 yards with a pair of touchdowns in a win over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVII and finishing with 16 receptions for 255 yards in three Super Bowl appearances. A member of the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Irvin was a master of the 100-yard game with 47 in just 159 career games. The flamboyant Irvin holds the NFL record for most 100-yard games in a season (11) and is tied with Charley Hennigan for the most consecutive games hitting the century mark (7). Irvin was never a huge touchdown scorer, but the Cowboys ran the ball brilliantly inside the red zone with Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman threw 20+ touchdown passes in a season just once. Irvin did manage to catch 65 touchdown passes in his career, including 10 in 1995 – the same season in which he had a career-high 111 receptions for 1,603 yards.
5. Cris Carter
Carter was one of the most graceful and acrobatic receivers the game has ever seen. Not blessed with great speed, Carter ran precise routes and used his size and leaping ability to outmuscle defensive backs. Carter finished his career with 1,101 receptions and scored 130 touchdowns, trailing just Jerry Rice in both categories on the NFL’s all-time list. Carter’s best two years came in 1994 and 1995 when he caught 122 passes each season (single season record in 1994 until Herman Moore caught 123 in 1995) and scored a combined 24 touchdowns. Carter was a touchdown machine between 1995 and 1999 when he recorded 65 scores, leading the league in touchdown receptions three times over that five-year span. Although Carter never won a Super Bowl, he was a member of one of the greatest offenses in league history – the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. During that season Minnesota scored a league-record 556 points and Carter was a huge part with 78 receptions and 12 touchdowns. The Vikings were upset in the NFC Title Game, missing a chance to play the defending champion Denver Broncos in what might have been one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever. Named to the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1990’s, Carter was very good in the playoffs in general, grabbing eight touchdowns in 12 post-season games with the Vikings.
4. Randy Moss
Moss will be in the Hall of Fame one day and he might even get somewhat close to several of Jerry Rice’s receiving records. In just his 10th year in the league and at the relatively young age of 30, Moss has already caught 122 touchdown passes and is the only receiver in the history of pro football to post three different seasons of 17+ touchdown receptions. One of Moss’ best seasons came in 1998 when he set a rookie record with 17 touchdown receptions, finishing the campaign with 69 catches for 1,313 yards. “The Freak” has led the NFL in receiving touchdowns four times, has posted a pair of 100-catch seasons and if not for ridiculous years by Marvin Harrison in 2002 and Torry Holt in 2003, he would have been the league leader in receiving yards, finishing second both years. Moss is also the only player in league history to begin a career with six straight seasons over 1,000 yards and is already 3rd all time with 54 games of 100+ yards. Moss has some baggage though – he’s admitted to taking plays off and has had some other minor on and off the field issues throughout his career. However, the only thing holding Moss back from being higher on this list is a Super Bowl ring, something he might get with the 2007 Patriots – the most prolific offense in league history.
3. Marvin Harrison
Harrison gets the nod for third place on this list over Randy Moss because has won a Super Bowl while Moss has not and Harrison has been much more consistent over his career. Harrison does not make #2 on the list because of one key reason – he has not produced much of anything in 14 post-season games. In fact, Harrison’s playoff resume is awful for a receiver of his caliber with just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns, all coming in the same game. Harrison has gone over 75 yards receiving in a post-season game just two times and has grabbed more than five passes only twice. Between a pair of AFC Conference Championship Games and Super Bowl XLI, Harrison has 12 receptions for 119 yards with zero touchdowns. Despite his playoff failures, Harrison is a hell of a receiver. Harrison is the only player in NFL history with four consecutive seasons of 100+ catches and eight straight campaigns of 10+ touchdowns. The 12-year veteran owns the league record for the most receptions in a season with 143 grabs in 2002 and despite missing 11 games this year with a knee injury, he is still the all-time leader in average number of catches per season (86.8). Harrison most surely would have moved into second place on the all-time receiving list (currently at 13,994 yards - 990 behind Tim Brown) if not for the injury.
2. Don Hutson
Hutson claims the #2 spot on this list because he was the NFL’s first great wide receiver and innovated the position, dominating in an era of very little passing. Hutson created many of the pass routes that are run today as well as a variety of fakes and moves that receivers still use almost 70 years later. Playing 11 seasons, Hutson held 18 NFL records at the time of his retirement in 1945. Among his many great records none are more impressive than Hutson leading the NFL in receptions on eight different occasions, in receiving yards seven times and in receiving touchdowns an unfathomable nine times. Hutson helped the Packers win three NFL championships and won the league MVP in back-to-back seasons in the early 1940’s. Hutson’s best season came in his 1942 MVP campaign when he caught 74 passes for 1,211 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdowns. Hutson caught 99 touchdown passes in just 116 career games and is the all-time leader in receiving touchdowns per game (0.85).
1. Jerry Rice
For such a difficult list to comprise, Rice was an easy choice as the best receiver of all time because he might be the greatest PLAYER ever to step onto a pro football field. It would be ridiculous to discuss all of Rice’s records because there are so many, but perhaps Rice’s greatest individual achievement came in the strike-shortened 1987 season when he caught an NFL record 22 touchdown passes in only 12 games. Rice also scored on a rushing touchdown in 1987 to give him 23 scores for the season, nearly averaging two touchdowns per game. In fact, Rice was terrific on reverses and end-arounds as he rushed for more yards than any other receiver in NFL history (645 yards) and finished with 10 rushing touchdowns over his career. Rice owns every major receiving record by a wide margin, but more impressively is the fact that he is all-time leader in touchdowns (207), yards from scrimmage (23,540) and all-purpose yards (23,546) as a receiver. To put Rice’s ability to score in perspective, he is the only non-kicker to rank in the Top 25 on the NFL’s all-time scoring list. The durable and consistent Rice only missed 17 games in his 20-year career with 14 coming in 1997 when he tore his ACL and the other three in 1987 because of the strike. Rice was also a major part of multiple championship teams, winning three Super Bowls with the 49ers between the 1980’s and 1990’s and playing in another Super Bowl with Oakland in 2002. Rice, who went to 13 Pro Bowls and was named All-Pro 12 times, won the MVP of Super Bowl XXIII with 11 receptions for 215 yards and has scored more points (48) than any other player in Super Bowl history.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS (in no particular order):
Torry Holt
Holt won a Super Bowl, is the all-time leader in receiving yards per game (83.5) and is the only player in league history to post six straight seasons of 1,300+ yards. Holt has scored just 71 touchdowns in his career, a relatively low amount for a nine-year player of his caliber. Holt is only 31 years old so he has plenty of time to crack this list, however.
James Lofton
Lofton put up some pretty impressive numbers over his 16-year career, finishing second on the all-time receiving list with 14,004 yards. A true deep threat, Lofton was even successful late in his career as he became the first player in league history to have a 1,000-yard season at the age of 35 years old. For some reason Lofton was not much of a scorer (75 career touchdowns) and that is the main reason he did not make the Top 10 over Steve Largent.
Andre Reed
Reed is in the Top 10 all time in receptions (951), receiving yards (13,198) and touchdowns (87), but never finished in the top three in any of those categories in a single season. Reed had just four 1,000-yard seasons in his 16-year career so although he was very good player, he just does not have the "juice" to make this list.
Monday, December 24, 2007
10 Players to Watch in 2008
Here is a quick look at 10 under-the-radar type players that could be a key to success for fantasy owners in 2008. This list is broken down by position, but in no particular order otherwise.
NOTE: Stats from Week 16 games are not included.
Quarterbacks
KEVIN KOLB, Philadelphia Eagles – There is a good chance that 2007 will be Donovan McNabb’s last season in Philadelphia. If that is the case, Kolb might start next season in just his second year in the league. The Eagles are very high on Kolb – they selected him out of Houston in the second round of the 2007 NFL Draft over more regarded quarterbacks such as John Beck and Trent Edwards. Kolb played in an offense in college that used a lot of shotgun so he might take some time to adjust in the pros, but he has good size and mobility with a strong arm. If you’re in a deep keeper league, Kolb might be worth stashing on your roster to see what happens with Philadelphia’s quarterback situation.
JAMARCUS RUSSELL, Oakland Raiders – Russell took a lot of time to even sign with the Raiders and has sat on the bench for most of his rookie season. He has gotten a chance to play some recently, however, and might even start one of the team’s final two games. Russell, the number one overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, is huge at 6-6, 255 and has a cannon for an arm. Surprisingly, Russell has fairly good mobility for a quarterback of his size so that should help him in the long term future. Daunte Culpepper probably won’t be back with the Raiders next year so Russell should start over Josh McCown or any other veteran quarterback they may bring into camp. As with most young quarterbacks there will be some growing pains, but Russell has the type of skills to be a dominant player.
Running Backs
MICHAEL TURNER, San Diego Chargers (???) – Considered by many to be the best backup in the league at any position, Turner is extremely stocky (5-10, 237) and has great instincts and speed. Turner, who will become an unrestricted free agent, has served as LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup over the last couple of seasons, but clearly has the talent to be a starter in the NFL. The Chargers tried to deal Turner in the off-season but no team was willing to meet their high asking price. Now San Diego will receive just a low compensatory pick if Turner signs with a team at the end of the year so it’s a safe bet he will be a starter somewhere in 2008 and perhaps a second round selection in many fantasy drafts. If you’re in a keeper league and have a chance to grab Turner this season, stop reading and do so now.
CHRIS HENRY, Tennessee Titans – Henry is a physical freak at 5-11, 232 with 4.4 speed. The problem for Henry is that he is still extremely raw, never starting in high school or college. The University of Arizona product has shown some flashes in his first season in the pros, however, scoring a touchdown in back-to-back weeks during the middle of the season while backup Chris Brown was injured. Other than that, it’s been a quiet season for the rookie running back. LenDale White will probably be the starter again next year, but Brown might not be back with the team as he signed just a one-year deal in the spring. Henry should be the primary backup runner in 2008 and with White’s suspect physique and work ethic - Henry might get a chance to play a lot.
JERIOUS NORWOOD, Atlanta Falcons – This year was supposed to be Norwood’s breakout season. Unfortunately, Norwood and the entire team have struggled through a variety of on and off the field issues. To Norwood’s credit, he is one of the fastest players in the league and is a very solid receiver out of the backfield. The problem is that Norwood might not be an every down back, although the Falcons would never know because they have given him 10+ carries in game just three times in his two-year career. It would be surprising if Warrick Dunn had a major role on the team next season so unless Atlanta drafts a running back in April, Norwood will probably be given an opportunity to take on more of the rushing load.
Wide Receivers
SIDNEY RICE, Minnesota Vikings – We’ve discussed Rice a couple of times this year, but in case you missed it - this kid is a player. At just 21 years old, the sky is the limit for the big (6-4, 202) and talented Rice. It is probable that Rice would have been a first round pick if he had stayed for his junior year at South Carolina, but he chose to come out after just two seasons and has made some plays for the Vikings in his rookie campaign. There is a lot to like about Rice other than his size – he’s fast and athletic and has tremendous leaping ability. Perhaps the only thing that could hold Rice back would be shaky quarterback play next year (Tarvaris Jackson), but Rice will still probably be an eighth to 10th round pick next year in many fantasy drafts.
ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Indianapolis Colts – Another youngster we’ve hyped up this year, Gonzalez probably does not have as much talent as Sidney Rice, but Gonzalez is a very good player and in a much better situation with the Colts. Marvin Harrison (knee) has been hurt most of the year and could be on the decline anyway so Gonzalez has gotten a chance to shine and has been a beast in three of the last four games with a pair of 100-yard games and three touchdowns. Gonzalez might not start next year, but he’ll be one of the league’s best third receivers at worst. 2009 is the probable breakout season for Gonzalez, but he’s still someone to keep a keen eye on, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues.
BRAD SMITH, New York Jets – Smith used to play quarterback in college, but the Jets converted him to wide receiver and he’s on the verge of busting out. Smith has ideal size for a receiver at 6-2, 210 and is very quick and elusive. After catching just nine passes in his rookie season, Smith has 27 receptions this year with a pair of touchdowns and has been used on a bunch of gadget plays. The Jets lack many playmakers on offense so look for Smith to be involved even more next year, his third season in the league and a time when receivers usually develop.
JAMES JONES, Green Bay Packers – Jones has shown flashes in his rookie season, but has mainly taken a back seat to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. The future looks promising for Jones, however. Jones was very productive at San Jose State so he has the confidence and swagger to be a legit playmaker at the wide receiver position. Jones does not have Driver’s experience and is not as fast as Jennings, but he’s fast enough and is terrific after the catch. Brett Favre is at the top of his game and might play a little longer, which is great news for Jones, who should blossom next year in his second season.
JEFF WEBB, Kansas City Chiefs – Webb is what you call a super sleeper. The second-year player has not done much this season as a receiver, catching just 21 passes for 245 yards. It’s not all his fault, though, because the Chiefs’ offensive line has been terrible and they’ve gotten shaky play from their quarterbacks all season. Webb, who has made an impact on special teams with a 20.4 average on kickoff returns, has a big frame at 6-2, 211 and is extremely fast. Aging Eddie Kennison and disappointing Samie Parker have been useless this year so both players might not be back, which would leave the door open for Webb to potentially start across from Dwayne Bowe next season.
NOTE: Stats from Week 16 games are not included.
Quarterbacks
KEVIN KOLB, Philadelphia Eagles – There is a good chance that 2007 will be Donovan McNabb’s last season in Philadelphia. If that is the case, Kolb might start next season in just his second year in the league. The Eagles are very high on Kolb – they selected him out of Houston in the second round of the 2007 NFL Draft over more regarded quarterbacks such as John Beck and Trent Edwards. Kolb played in an offense in college that used a lot of shotgun so he might take some time to adjust in the pros, but he has good size and mobility with a strong arm. If you’re in a deep keeper league, Kolb might be worth stashing on your roster to see what happens with Philadelphia’s quarterback situation.
JAMARCUS RUSSELL, Oakland Raiders – Russell took a lot of time to even sign with the Raiders and has sat on the bench for most of his rookie season. He has gotten a chance to play some recently, however, and might even start one of the team’s final two games. Russell, the number one overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, is huge at 6-6, 255 and has a cannon for an arm. Surprisingly, Russell has fairly good mobility for a quarterback of his size so that should help him in the long term future. Daunte Culpepper probably won’t be back with the Raiders next year so Russell should start over Josh McCown or any other veteran quarterback they may bring into camp. As with most young quarterbacks there will be some growing pains, but Russell has the type of skills to be a dominant player.
Running Backs
MICHAEL TURNER, San Diego Chargers (???) – Considered by many to be the best backup in the league at any position, Turner is extremely stocky (5-10, 237) and has great instincts and speed. Turner, who will become an unrestricted free agent, has served as LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup over the last couple of seasons, but clearly has the talent to be a starter in the NFL. The Chargers tried to deal Turner in the off-season but no team was willing to meet their high asking price. Now San Diego will receive just a low compensatory pick if Turner signs with a team at the end of the year so it’s a safe bet he will be a starter somewhere in 2008 and perhaps a second round selection in many fantasy drafts. If you’re in a keeper league and have a chance to grab Turner this season, stop reading and do so now.
CHRIS HENRY, Tennessee Titans – Henry is a physical freak at 5-11, 232 with 4.4 speed. The problem for Henry is that he is still extremely raw, never starting in high school or college. The University of Arizona product has shown some flashes in his first season in the pros, however, scoring a touchdown in back-to-back weeks during the middle of the season while backup Chris Brown was injured. Other than that, it’s been a quiet season for the rookie running back. LenDale White will probably be the starter again next year, but Brown might not be back with the team as he signed just a one-year deal in the spring. Henry should be the primary backup runner in 2008 and with White’s suspect physique and work ethic - Henry might get a chance to play a lot.
JERIOUS NORWOOD, Atlanta Falcons – This year was supposed to be Norwood’s breakout season. Unfortunately, Norwood and the entire team have struggled through a variety of on and off the field issues. To Norwood’s credit, he is one of the fastest players in the league and is a very solid receiver out of the backfield. The problem is that Norwood might not be an every down back, although the Falcons would never know because they have given him 10+ carries in game just three times in his two-year career. It would be surprising if Warrick Dunn had a major role on the team next season so unless Atlanta drafts a running back in April, Norwood will probably be given an opportunity to take on more of the rushing load.
Wide Receivers
SIDNEY RICE, Minnesota Vikings – We’ve discussed Rice a couple of times this year, but in case you missed it - this kid is a player. At just 21 years old, the sky is the limit for the big (6-4, 202) and talented Rice. It is probable that Rice would have been a first round pick if he had stayed for his junior year at South Carolina, but he chose to come out after just two seasons and has made some plays for the Vikings in his rookie campaign. There is a lot to like about Rice other than his size – he’s fast and athletic and has tremendous leaping ability. Perhaps the only thing that could hold Rice back would be shaky quarterback play next year (Tarvaris Jackson), but Rice will still probably be an eighth to 10th round pick next year in many fantasy drafts.
ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Indianapolis Colts – Another youngster we’ve hyped up this year, Gonzalez probably does not have as much talent as Sidney Rice, but Gonzalez is a very good player and in a much better situation with the Colts. Marvin Harrison (knee) has been hurt most of the year and could be on the decline anyway so Gonzalez has gotten a chance to shine and has been a beast in three of the last four games with a pair of 100-yard games and three touchdowns. Gonzalez might not start next year, but he’ll be one of the league’s best third receivers at worst. 2009 is the probable breakout season for Gonzalez, but he’s still someone to keep a keen eye on, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues.
BRAD SMITH, New York Jets – Smith used to play quarterback in college, but the Jets converted him to wide receiver and he’s on the verge of busting out. Smith has ideal size for a receiver at 6-2, 210 and is very quick and elusive. After catching just nine passes in his rookie season, Smith has 27 receptions this year with a pair of touchdowns and has been used on a bunch of gadget plays. The Jets lack many playmakers on offense so look for Smith to be involved even more next year, his third season in the league and a time when receivers usually develop.
JAMES JONES, Green Bay Packers – Jones has shown flashes in his rookie season, but has mainly taken a back seat to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. The future looks promising for Jones, however. Jones was very productive at San Jose State so he has the confidence and swagger to be a legit playmaker at the wide receiver position. Jones does not have Driver’s experience and is not as fast as Jennings, but he’s fast enough and is terrific after the catch. Brett Favre is at the top of his game and might play a little longer, which is great news for Jones, who should blossom next year in his second season.
JEFF WEBB, Kansas City Chiefs – Webb is what you call a super sleeper. The second-year player has not done much this season as a receiver, catching just 21 passes for 245 yards. It’s not all his fault, though, because the Chiefs’ offensive line has been terrible and they’ve gotten shaky play from their quarterbacks all season. Webb, who has made an impact on special teams with a 20.4 average on kickoff returns, has a big frame at 6-2, 211 and is extremely fast. Aging Eddie Kennison and disappointing Samie Parker have been useless this year so both players might not be back, which would leave the door open for Webb to potentially start across from Dwayne Bowe next season.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Instant Accountability
Dallas 20, Carolina 13
Start: Steve Smith, CAR - I made sure to send Gusto an email last night to remind him of his poor ranking for Smith this week, as although Matt Moore had just 182 yards passing and 1 TD, Smith had 137 of the yards, as well as the TD. Great game for Smith, who performed even better than I had expected...
Prediction: 6 catches, 92 yards, at least a 30 yard catch or a TD.
Actual: 9 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD (including a 57 yard catch).
Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Jones was a non-factor in the win by the Cowboys, with just 25 yards on 9 carries, with no carry more than 5 yards. He also added a paltry 2 yards receiving, while MBIII had 126 total yards and a TD. Clearly Wade Phillips has finally figured out that Barber is a superior RB, as the touches per game have continued to shift more and more his way...
Prediction: 55 total yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 10 touches, 27 yards, 0 TD's.
Philadelphia 38, New Orleans 23
Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - Yes, I made sure to email Mr. Goss about this one... Curtis started off the day with a flukey fumble recovery for a TD, but also added another one from McNabb in the 4th quarter. I thought the yardage #'s would have been a bit higher, but the TD's made up for it...
Prediction: 4 catches, 90 yards, probably 1 TD...
Actual: 6 catches, 78 yards, 2 TD's (1 receiving, 1 fumble recovery)
Bench: Aaron Stecker, NO - I nailed the yardage #'s, but didn't take into account that he was going to punch two into the end zone. Stecker missed part of the game due to injury, but wasn't really that effective anyways, with 26 of his 49 yards coming on one play. Still, the TD's make this one a miss...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 4 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Actual: 13 carries, 49 yards, 4 catches, 35 yards, 2 TD's.
Detroit 25, Kansas City 20
Start: Kolby Smith, KC - Although like Stecker, I nailed it in terms of total yards, but because he didn't find his way into the end zone (the one carry Jackie Battle had was a 3 yard TD run, which probably burned many Smith owners) this one goes down as a miss as well...
Prediction: 24 carries, 105 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 17 carries, 60 yards, 7 catches, 55 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - You think Millen'll try to trade up to get BC Quarterback Matt Ryan in the 2008 NFL Draft? Kitna only had to throw the ball 16 times in the win over KC, but was mediocre, with 0 TD's, and less than 125 yards passing. There's a great chance that he'll be holding a clipboard on the sidelines next season...
Prediction: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, at least 1 INT.
Actual: 115 yards passing, 0 TD's, 1 INT.
Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14
Start: Kenny Watson, CIN - Watson didn't disappoint, as the weather conditions forced CIN to focus on the ground attack. 150 total yards and a TD qualifies as a fantastic day, even with the lost fumble. Nice win for the Bengals, who'll look to avoid double digit losses in Week 17 against the Dolphins down in Miami... Speaking of Miami, I just started watching the Showtime series "Dexter". Good stuff if you haven't seen it yet...
Prediction: 19 carries, 93 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Actual: 30 carries, 130 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost.
Bench: Phil Dawson, CLE - Dawson didn't even attempt an FG, as Derek Anderson reverted back to v.2006 today, as it took him almost 50 attempts to get to 250 yards...
Prediction: 2 FG's, 4 XP's (2 if weather is a factor).
Actual: 0 FG's, 2 XP's.
Chicago 35, Green Bay 7
Start: Donald Lee, GB - Ugh. Ugly game for the Pack today, as Brett Favre continues to have problems in Chi-Town. Jennings led the Pack with just 42 yards receiving, and Lee was worse, with just 1 catch for 2 yards on the day...
Prediction: 4 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 1 catch, 2 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Mushin Muhammad/Bernard Berrian, CHI - MM/BB didn't disappoint, with just 1 catch for 14 yards COMBINED. Adrian Peterson shouldered the load, with almost as many total yards as the rest of the team (118 vs 122)...
Prediction: No more than 45 yards receiving for either player, 0 TD's.
Actual: 1 catch, 14 yards, 0 TD's for BB, 0 catches for MM.
NY Giants 38, Buffalo 21
Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Even though Jacobs missed part of the game due to injury, he still had his best game as a pro, with almost 150 yards on the ground, and two TD's. And considering that Bradshaw had 17 carries himself, Jacobs might have neared 200 yards had he been healthy the entire game...
Prediction: 25 carries, 109 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 24 carries, 145 yards rushing, 1 catch, 6 yards receiving, 2 TD's.
Bench: Robert Royal, BUF - Hopefully you didn't have to start this guy, as he put up a big fat zero on the day. Another tough weather game for the Bills, who couldn't beat the G-Men despite 5 fumbles and 2 INT's by Eli...
Prediction: 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 0 catches.
Indianapolis 38, Houston 15
Start: Dallas Clark, IND - Big game for Clark, who caught 2 TD's through the air, and even ripped off a 15 yard run! A special eff you goes to Joseph Addai, who, along with Colston, cost me 3rd place in my league. Thanks guys! Yes, I'm extremely bitter this evening...
Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 6 catches, 60 yards receiving, 1 carry, 15 yards rushing, 2 TD's.
Bench: Kevin Walter, HOU - I'm done picking on Walter, who has clearly become an end zone target for Rosenfels. I had the total # of catches right, but that was about it...
Prediction: 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 4 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD.
Greg's Totals: Starts: 5-3-0, Benches: 5-3-0. Total: 10-6-0.
Prediction: 15 carries for 65 yards with 1-2 TD’s.
Actual: 10 carries, 44 yards rushing, 6 catches, 96 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Bench: Dominic Rhodes/LaMont Jordan, OAK - I don't know if I should give this one to Gusto or not. Jordan didn't have a touch, while Rhodes actually had a very strong game, with 124 yards of total offense. Screw it, I'm in a giving mood today, so we'll call this one a hit...
Prediction: Combined 125 yards from scrimmage.
Actual: 124 yards for Rhodes, 0 touches for Jordan.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 27
Start: Edgerrin James, ARI - I was really hoping Gusto's prediction would be right here, as I needed a game like this to give me a chance to win. Unfortunately, he didn't score, nor did he have 100 yards rushing. He wasn't awful, with just under 100 total yards in the OT win over ATL, but it wasn't enough for me or this pick...
Prediction: 24 carries for 100 yards with 1 TD.
Actual: 25 carries, 76 yards rushing, 5 catches, 21 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jerious Norwood, ATL - ATL couldn't get the rushing attack going today, as Travis Williams (?) led the team with 37 yards on the ground, on his lone carry. Norwood actually had negative yards receiving, and only 8 touches on the day in what continues to be a frustrating year for him, as well as all of his fantasy owners...
Prediction: 11 touches for 70 yards.
Actual: 8 touches for 29 yards, 0 TD's.
San Francisco 21, Tampa Bay 19
Start: Jeff Garcia, TB - Even though he didn't hit Gusto's projections, I'm going to call this one a push, as the Bucs let Garcia sit out the 2nd half to keep him fresh for the playoffs. He still managed to throw for almost 200 yards and a TD, although he did have a fumble as well...
Prediction: 220 yards with 2 TD’s.
Actual: 196 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT's, 1 fumble (recovered by himself).
Bench: Shaun Hill, SF - 123 yards passing isn't exactly what you'd call a good day, but 3 TD's and only 1 turnover (INT) made this one a miss. Hill only completed 11 passes on the day, but 3 of them went for TD's in the upset win over the Bucs...
Prediction: 200 yards with 2 turnovers.
Actual: 123 yards passing, 3 TD's, 1 INT.
Seattle 27, Baltimore 6
Start: Bobby Engram, SEA - Engram wasn't that bad today, with 69 yards through the air. But because he didn't score, I'm going to have to classify this one as a miss. Hass actually had a tough time with BAL, with just 199 yards passing, along with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. The big surprise was that Shaun Alexander actually played well, with almost 90 total yards and a TD...
Prediction: 6 receptions for 80 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 5 catches, 69 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Derrick Mason - Although Troy Smith was pretty ineffective today, throwing for just 199 yards and 1 TD (and 2 lost fumbles), Mason was on the receiving end for about half of the yards, as well as the TD in a strong performance. Actually, he ended up being the only BAL player worth starting, as no other player had more than 55 total yards...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 50 yards.
Actual: 5 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD.
Tennessee 10, New York Jets 6
Start: LenDale White, TEN - Nice call by Gusto here, but like Kolby Smith, this one goes down as a miss because White didn't find the end zone (Chris Brown scored instead). I'm so upset this game wasn't broadcast here though, as it looked like a real barnburner...
Prediction: 23 carries for 90 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 23 carries, 103 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ - Jones continued his mediocre season today, with 58 yards rushing on 21 carries, or less than 3 YPC. Hopefully you had better options, as TENN's defense smothered the ground "attack" of the J-E-T-S all day...
Prediction: 17 carries for 60 yards.
Actual: 21 carries, 58 yards rushing, 3 catches, 5 yards receiving, 0 TD's, 1 fumble lost.
New England 28, Miami 7
Start: Jabar Gaffney, NE - Although he didn't have any catches in the 2nd half (which sucked, as my league has a bonus for 100 yards receiving), Gaffney's 82 yards and a TD in the first half made this a solid call by Gusto. He actually led the Pats in receiving on the day, as Brady didn't play very well in the 2nd half...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 65 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Cleo Lemon, MIA - Lemon wasn't great, but he didn't turn the ball over at all, passing for 171 yards and a TD. His completion percentage was a paltry 44% on the day, with just 18 completions in 41 attempts (4.17 YPA, which is miserable). I hate to give a miss to Gusto here, but unfortunately, it is...
Prediction: 185 yards with 1 TD and 2-3 turnovers.
Actual: 171 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 turnovers.
Washington 32, Minnesota 21
Start: Ryan Longwell, MIN - You know you're having a bad week when even your kicker prediction turns out to be wrong. Longwell only attempted 1 FG in Sunday night's game, missing a 53 yarder...
Prediction: 2-3 field goals with at least one from 40+ yards.
Actual: 0 FG's, 3 XP's.
Bench: Clinton Portis, WAS - Gusto's hatred for Portis continues.... And he continues to get burnt. Even against the strong MINN rush defense, Portis had 124 total yards and a TD, as well as throwing for a TD! Very strong game for the Skins, who now control their own destiny for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. For all the crap Gibbs has received lately, he has the team playing extremely well right now, even after the tragic loss of Sean Taylor, as well as Jason Campbell...
Prediction: 15 carries for 55 yards.
Actual: 20 carries, 76 yards rushing, 5 catches, 48 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, 2 TD's.
San Diego 23, Denver 3
Start: Antonio Gates, SD - Gates had another quiet game, with just 1 catch for 24 yards. Chambers was the only receiver/TE to make any sort of fantasy impact, with 70+ yards and a TD in the convincing win over the Broncos...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 60 yards with 1 TD.
Actual: 1 catch, 24 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jay Cutler, DEN - As predicted by Gusto, Cutler had a miserable game, with just 155 yards passing, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, and 2 fumbles, one of which was recovered by SD. The only bright spot was the 42 yards he had on the ground...
Prediction: 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
Actual: 155 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, 2 fumbles.
Gusto's Totals: Starts: 2-5-1, Benches: 4-4-0. Total: 6-9-1.
Start: Steve Smith, CAR - I made sure to send Gusto an email last night to remind him of his poor ranking for Smith this week, as although Matt Moore had just 182 yards passing and 1 TD, Smith had 137 of the yards, as well as the TD. Great game for Smith, who performed even better than I had expected...
Prediction: 6 catches, 92 yards, at least a 30 yard catch or a TD.
Actual: 9 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD (including a 57 yard catch).
Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Jones was a non-factor in the win by the Cowboys, with just 25 yards on 9 carries, with no carry more than 5 yards. He also added a paltry 2 yards receiving, while MBIII had 126 total yards and a TD. Clearly Wade Phillips has finally figured out that Barber is a superior RB, as the touches per game have continued to shift more and more his way...
Prediction: 55 total yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 10 touches, 27 yards, 0 TD's.
Philadelphia 38, New Orleans 23
Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - Yes, I made sure to email Mr. Goss about this one... Curtis started off the day with a flukey fumble recovery for a TD, but also added another one from McNabb in the 4th quarter. I thought the yardage #'s would have been a bit higher, but the TD's made up for it...
Prediction: 4 catches, 90 yards, probably 1 TD...
Actual: 6 catches, 78 yards, 2 TD's (1 receiving, 1 fumble recovery)
Bench: Aaron Stecker, NO - I nailed the yardage #'s, but didn't take into account that he was going to punch two into the end zone. Stecker missed part of the game due to injury, but wasn't really that effective anyways, with 26 of his 49 yards coming on one play. Still, the TD's make this one a miss...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 4 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Actual: 13 carries, 49 yards, 4 catches, 35 yards, 2 TD's.
Detroit 25, Kansas City 20
Start: Kolby Smith, KC - Although like Stecker, I nailed it in terms of total yards, but because he didn't find his way into the end zone (the one carry Jackie Battle had was a 3 yard TD run, which probably burned many Smith owners) this one goes down as a miss as well...
Prediction: 24 carries, 105 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 17 carries, 60 yards, 7 catches, 55 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - You think Millen'll try to trade up to get BC Quarterback Matt Ryan in the 2008 NFL Draft? Kitna only had to throw the ball 16 times in the win over KC, but was mediocre, with 0 TD's, and less than 125 yards passing. There's a great chance that he'll be holding a clipboard on the sidelines next season...
Prediction: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, at least 1 INT.
Actual: 115 yards passing, 0 TD's, 1 INT.
Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14
Start: Kenny Watson, CIN - Watson didn't disappoint, as the weather conditions forced CIN to focus on the ground attack. 150 total yards and a TD qualifies as a fantastic day, even with the lost fumble. Nice win for the Bengals, who'll look to avoid double digit losses in Week 17 against the Dolphins down in Miami... Speaking of Miami, I just started watching the Showtime series "Dexter". Good stuff if you haven't seen it yet...
Prediction: 19 carries, 93 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Actual: 30 carries, 130 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost.
Bench: Phil Dawson, CLE - Dawson didn't even attempt an FG, as Derek Anderson reverted back to v.2006 today, as it took him almost 50 attempts to get to 250 yards...
Prediction: 2 FG's, 4 XP's (2 if weather is a factor).
Actual: 0 FG's, 2 XP's.
Chicago 35, Green Bay 7
Start: Donald Lee, GB - Ugh. Ugly game for the Pack today, as Brett Favre continues to have problems in Chi-Town. Jennings led the Pack with just 42 yards receiving, and Lee was worse, with just 1 catch for 2 yards on the day...
Prediction: 4 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 1 catch, 2 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Mushin Muhammad/Bernard Berrian, CHI - MM/BB didn't disappoint, with just 1 catch for 14 yards COMBINED. Adrian Peterson shouldered the load, with almost as many total yards as the rest of the team (118 vs 122)...
Prediction: No more than 45 yards receiving for either player, 0 TD's.
Actual: 1 catch, 14 yards, 0 TD's for BB, 0 catches for MM.
NY Giants 38, Buffalo 21
Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Even though Jacobs missed part of the game due to injury, he still had his best game as a pro, with almost 150 yards on the ground, and two TD's. And considering that Bradshaw had 17 carries himself, Jacobs might have neared 200 yards had he been healthy the entire game...
Prediction: 25 carries, 109 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 24 carries, 145 yards rushing, 1 catch, 6 yards receiving, 2 TD's.
Bench: Robert Royal, BUF - Hopefully you didn't have to start this guy, as he put up a big fat zero on the day. Another tough weather game for the Bills, who couldn't beat the G-Men despite 5 fumbles and 2 INT's by Eli...
Prediction: 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 0 catches.
Indianapolis 38, Houston 15
Start: Dallas Clark, IND - Big game for Clark, who caught 2 TD's through the air, and even ripped off a 15 yard run! A special eff you goes to Joseph Addai, who, along with Colston, cost me 3rd place in my league. Thanks guys! Yes, I'm extremely bitter this evening...
Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 6 catches, 60 yards receiving, 1 carry, 15 yards rushing, 2 TD's.
Bench: Kevin Walter, HOU - I'm done picking on Walter, who has clearly become an end zone target for Rosenfels. I had the total # of catches right, but that was about it...
Prediction: 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 4 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD.
Greg's Totals: Starts: 5-3-0, Benches: 5-3-0. Total: 10-6-0.
Start: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC - Drew didn't do much on the ground, with just 44 yards rushing, but had a huge day catching the ball out of the backfield, with just under 100 yards receiving, including a 43 yard play. Overall, a very nice day for MJD...
Prediction: 15 carries for 65 yards with 1-2 TD’s.
Actual: 10 carries, 44 yards rushing, 6 catches, 96 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Bench: Dominic Rhodes/LaMont Jordan, OAK - I don't know if I should give this one to Gusto or not. Jordan didn't have a touch, while Rhodes actually had a very strong game, with 124 yards of total offense. Screw it, I'm in a giving mood today, so we'll call this one a hit...
Prediction: Combined 125 yards from scrimmage.
Actual: 124 yards for Rhodes, 0 touches for Jordan.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 27
Start: Edgerrin James, ARI - I was really hoping Gusto's prediction would be right here, as I needed a game like this to give me a chance to win. Unfortunately, he didn't score, nor did he have 100 yards rushing. He wasn't awful, with just under 100 total yards in the OT win over ATL, but it wasn't enough for me or this pick...
Prediction: 24 carries for 100 yards with 1 TD.
Actual: 25 carries, 76 yards rushing, 5 catches, 21 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jerious Norwood, ATL - ATL couldn't get the rushing attack going today, as Travis Williams (?) led the team with 37 yards on the ground, on his lone carry. Norwood actually had negative yards receiving, and only 8 touches on the day in what continues to be a frustrating year for him, as well as all of his fantasy owners...
Prediction: 11 touches for 70 yards.
Actual: 8 touches for 29 yards, 0 TD's.
San Francisco 21, Tampa Bay 19
Start: Jeff Garcia, TB - Even though he didn't hit Gusto's projections, I'm going to call this one a push, as the Bucs let Garcia sit out the 2nd half to keep him fresh for the playoffs. He still managed to throw for almost 200 yards and a TD, although he did have a fumble as well...
Prediction: 220 yards with 2 TD’s.
Actual: 196 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT's, 1 fumble (recovered by himself).
Bench: Shaun Hill, SF - 123 yards passing isn't exactly what you'd call a good day, but 3 TD's and only 1 turnover (INT) made this one a miss. Hill only completed 11 passes on the day, but 3 of them went for TD's in the upset win over the Bucs...
Prediction: 200 yards with 2 turnovers.
Actual: 123 yards passing, 3 TD's, 1 INT.
Seattle 27, Baltimore 6
Start: Bobby Engram, SEA - Engram wasn't that bad today, with 69 yards through the air. But because he didn't score, I'm going to have to classify this one as a miss. Hass actually had a tough time with BAL, with just 199 yards passing, along with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. The big surprise was that Shaun Alexander actually played well, with almost 90 total yards and a TD...
Prediction: 6 receptions for 80 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 5 catches, 69 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Derrick Mason - Although Troy Smith was pretty ineffective today, throwing for just 199 yards and 1 TD (and 2 lost fumbles), Mason was on the receiving end for about half of the yards, as well as the TD in a strong performance. Actually, he ended up being the only BAL player worth starting, as no other player had more than 55 total yards...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 50 yards.
Actual: 5 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD.
Tennessee 10, New York Jets 6
Start: LenDale White, TEN - Nice call by Gusto here, but like Kolby Smith, this one goes down as a miss because White didn't find the end zone (Chris Brown scored instead). I'm so upset this game wasn't broadcast here though, as it looked like a real barnburner...
Prediction: 23 carries for 90 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 23 carries, 103 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ - Jones continued his mediocre season today, with 58 yards rushing on 21 carries, or less than 3 YPC. Hopefully you had better options, as TENN's defense smothered the ground "attack" of the J-E-T-S all day...
Prediction: 17 carries for 60 yards.
Actual: 21 carries, 58 yards rushing, 3 catches, 5 yards receiving, 0 TD's, 1 fumble lost.
New England 28, Miami 7
Start: Jabar Gaffney, NE - Although he didn't have any catches in the 2nd half (which sucked, as my league has a bonus for 100 yards receiving), Gaffney's 82 yards and a TD in the first half made this a solid call by Gusto. He actually led the Pats in receiving on the day, as Brady didn't play very well in the 2nd half...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 65 yards with a touchdown.
Actual: 5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Cleo Lemon, MIA - Lemon wasn't great, but he didn't turn the ball over at all, passing for 171 yards and a TD. His completion percentage was a paltry 44% on the day, with just 18 completions in 41 attempts (4.17 YPA, which is miserable). I hate to give a miss to Gusto here, but unfortunately, it is...
Prediction: 185 yards with 1 TD and 2-3 turnovers.
Actual: 171 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 turnovers.
Washington 32, Minnesota 21
Start: Ryan Longwell, MIN - You know you're having a bad week when even your kicker prediction turns out to be wrong. Longwell only attempted 1 FG in Sunday night's game, missing a 53 yarder...
Prediction: 2-3 field goals with at least one from 40+ yards.
Actual: 0 FG's, 3 XP's.
Bench: Clinton Portis, WAS - Gusto's hatred for Portis continues.... And he continues to get burnt. Even against the strong MINN rush defense, Portis had 124 total yards and a TD, as well as throwing for a TD! Very strong game for the Skins, who now control their own destiny for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. For all the crap Gibbs has received lately, he has the team playing extremely well right now, even after the tragic loss of Sean Taylor, as well as Jason Campbell...
Prediction: 15 carries for 55 yards.
Actual: 20 carries, 76 yards rushing, 5 catches, 48 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, 2 TD's.
San Diego 23, Denver 3
Start: Antonio Gates, SD - Gates had another quiet game, with just 1 catch for 24 yards. Chambers was the only receiver/TE to make any sort of fantasy impact, with 70+ yards and a TD in the convincing win over the Broncos...
Prediction: 5 receptions for 60 yards with 1 TD.
Actual: 1 catch, 24 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jay Cutler, DEN - As predicted by Gusto, Cutler had a miserable game, with just 155 yards passing, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, and 2 fumbles, one of which was recovered by SD. The only bright spot was the 42 yards he had on the ground...
Prediction: 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
Actual: 155 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, 2 fumbles.
Gusto's Totals: Starts: 2-5-1, Benches: 4-4-0. Total: 6-9-1.
Injury Update for Week 16 Late Games
LARRY FITZGERALD (groin) and ANQUAN BOLDIN (toe) are both active against Atlanta. Both are not 100 percent, but Boldin appears to be a little healthier.
TODD HEAP (hamstring) will not play at Seattle. QUINN SYPNIEWSKI will start in Heap's place.
SHAUN ALEXANDER (wrist) is active against Baltimore. Alexander has not done much this year and the Ravens defend the run well so you might want to sit him if you have better options.
D.J. HACKETT (ankle) will not play against Baltimore. Hackett is making progress and he probably could have suited up if the game were a must-win for Seattle.
LENDALE WHITE (knee) will play against the Jets and should have a solid game.
KELLEN CLEMENS (ribs/shoulder) is listed as being active at Tennessee, but CHAD PENNINGTON will start. It appears the Jets are taking a cautious approach with their young quarterback.
FRANK GORE (ankle) will start versus Tampa Bay. He missed a couple of practices this week, but is good to go.
JESSE CHATMAN (ankle) is active at New England. He'll probably split carries with SAMKON GADO, however.
BEN WATSON (ankle) and KYLE BRADY (foot) will both not play against Miami. STEPHEN SPACH will receive more work in their absence.
TODD HEAP (hamstring) will not play at Seattle. QUINN SYPNIEWSKI will start in Heap's place.
SHAUN ALEXANDER (wrist) is active against Baltimore. Alexander has not done much this year and the Ravens defend the run well so you might want to sit him if you have better options.
D.J. HACKETT (ankle) will not play against Baltimore. Hackett is making progress and he probably could have suited up if the game were a must-win for Seattle.
LENDALE WHITE (knee) will play against the Jets and should have a solid game.
KELLEN CLEMENS (ribs/shoulder) is listed as being active at Tennessee, but CHAD PENNINGTON will start. It appears the Jets are taking a cautious approach with their young quarterback.
FRANK GORE (ankle) will start versus Tampa Bay. He missed a couple of practices this week, but is good to go.
JESSE CHATMAN (ankle) is active at New England. He'll probably split carries with SAMKON GADO, however.
BEN WATSON (ankle) and KYLE BRADY (foot) will both not play against Miami. STEPHEN SPACH will receive more work in their absence.
Injury Update for Week 16 Early Games
BRIAN WESTBROOK (ankle) and REGGIE BROWN (knee) are both active at New Orleans. Westbrook is obviously a must-start in all fantasy leagues while Brown might be a decent play this week depending on your options.
MARQUES COLSTON (back) will play against Philadelphia. He missed Friday's practice, but he is available.
REGGIE BUSH (knee) will not play against Philadelphia. AARON STECKER will start again and has looked good in each of the last two games.
RUDI JOHNSON (hamstring) is inactive for the game versus Cleveland. KENNY WATSON will start and DEDE DORSEY should receive a couple of carries as well.
RON DAYNE (ankle) is active at Indianapolis, but will not start. Dayne should receive a bunch of carries, but DARIUS WALKER will be given the official start.
MATT SCHAUB (shoulder) will be the emergency quarterback at Indianapolis. SAGE ROSENFELS will once again start for Houston.
MARVIN HARRISON (knee) is inactive again for the game against Houston. ANTHONY GONZALEZ will start in Harrison's absence and has played very well in three of the last four games.
BRANDON JACOBS (hamstring) will play at Buffalo. The weather and field conditions are not expected to be good so Jacobs might see more work than usual.
PLAXICO BURRESS (hamstring, ankle) is active at Buffalo. It's hard to recommend Burress, however, because he has been very inconsistent in the second half of the season and the weather in Buffalo is rainy and windy.
MARQUES COLSTON (back) will play against Philadelphia. He missed Friday's practice, but he is available.
REGGIE BUSH (knee) will not play against Philadelphia. AARON STECKER will start again and has looked good in each of the last two games.
RUDI JOHNSON (hamstring) is inactive for the game versus Cleveland. KENNY WATSON will start and DEDE DORSEY should receive a couple of carries as well.
RON DAYNE (ankle) is active at Indianapolis, but will not start. Dayne should receive a bunch of carries, but DARIUS WALKER will be given the official start.
MATT SCHAUB (shoulder) will be the emergency quarterback at Indianapolis. SAGE ROSENFELS will once again start for Houston.
MARVIN HARRISON (knee) is inactive again for the game against Houston. ANTHONY GONZALEZ will start in Harrison's absence and has played very well in three of the last four games.
BRANDON JACOBS (hamstring) will play at Buffalo. The weather and field conditions are not expected to be good so Jacobs might see more work than usual.
PLAXICO BURRESS (hamstring, ankle) is active at Buffalo. It's hard to recommend Burress, however, because he has been very inconsistent in the second half of the season and the weather in Buffalo is rainy and windy.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Random Thoughts from Around the NFL
Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning combined to throw five interceptions and just one touchdown on Sunday. Thanks guys - a lot of fantasy seasons were destroyed in the process.
Speaking of Romo, is there a bigger pimp in the NFL (besides Tom Brady of course)? First Romo was dating Carrie Underwood, now he’s with Jessica Simpson, who was at the game on Sunday. Too bad Romo has played like shiznit (27-of-65 for 355 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions) in the two games when Underwood and Simpson have attended. Even Romo’s boy Terrell Owens is getting pissed by the whole thing, although it doesn’t take much to get T.O. heated.
Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are throwing a party right now for not only clinching the NFC South Division, but scoring on a kickoff return for the first time in franchise history. It only took 32 years!!!!!
If you lost your fantasy game on Sunday because Brian Westbrook decided to intentionally fall down at the one yard line with two minutes left to secure Philly’s win, I am sorry for you. The play is being over-hyped by the media though, proclaiming Westbrook as the most unselfish athlete of all time. While it was an intelligent move, Westbrook could have scored and it still would have been more than a long shot for the Cowboys to get a touchdown and a two-point conversion AND a field goal in the final two minutes.
If any of you watch games on the NFL Network, you know how painful it is to listen to Bryant Gumbel. Specifically when Gumbel states repeatedly that player X appears to have the first down. Bryant, the guy literally made the first down by nine yards, it’s not apparent, it’s definite!!!!!
The Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week and as usual there were a couple of snubs, but nothing too earth-shattering. The biggest surprise might have been that Jacksonville and Tampa Bay had zero Pro Bowlers and one could make the case for Fred Taylor and/or Joey Galloway this season. Do you realize Taylor and Galloway have NEVER been to a single Pro Bowl? It’s rare to see players with over 10,000 career yards not make at least one appearance to the NFL’s All-Star Game.
While I’m on the topic of the Pro Bowl - props to “Big Game” Torry Holt, who was selected to the game for the seventh time in his career despite playing on a bad knee and under difficult circumstances in St. Louis this season. FYI – Holt is the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (83.8).
Brian Billick needs to be fired like right now. Last week he decided to NOT go for the touchdown on fourth and goal from the one-yard line with 12 seconds left. The Ravens kicked the field goal instead to tie the game and lost in overtime. He is an awful coach and deserves to be banned from the NFL.
Do we really have to see and hear from Bill Parcells again? He is simply an ego maniac and an annoying figure these days.
Steve Young made an astute observation a couple of Monday’s ago when he said that Aaron Stecker gave the Saints a better chance to win because he is a true running back while Reggie Bush is a specialty player. I could not have said it better myself. Stecker obviously does not have the talent that Bush has, but New Orleans can just hand the ball off to him and pound defenses. Bush dances to much at the line of scrimmage and might be too undersized to play every down and you’re not going to line him up at wide receiver every snap so what do you do with him? New Orleans has played suspect defenses over the last two weeks, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team has performed much better offensively with Stecker as the every down back.
Bobby Engram has played in the league for 12 years, yet never had a 1,000-yard season until now. Already with a career high in yardage, Engram needs just four receptions and two touchdowns to post personal bests in those categories as well. I guess some things do age like fine wine.
Speaking of Romo, is there a bigger pimp in the NFL (besides Tom Brady of course)? First Romo was dating Carrie Underwood, now he’s with Jessica Simpson, who was at the game on Sunday. Too bad Romo has played like shiznit (27-of-65 for 355 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions) in the two games when Underwood and Simpson have attended. Even Romo’s boy Terrell Owens is getting pissed by the whole thing, although it doesn’t take much to get T.O. heated.
Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are throwing a party right now for not only clinching the NFC South Division, but scoring on a kickoff return for the first time in franchise history. It only took 32 years!!!!!
If you lost your fantasy game on Sunday because Brian Westbrook decided to intentionally fall down at the one yard line with two minutes left to secure Philly’s win, I am sorry for you. The play is being over-hyped by the media though, proclaiming Westbrook as the most unselfish athlete of all time. While it was an intelligent move, Westbrook could have scored and it still would have been more than a long shot for the Cowboys to get a touchdown and a two-point conversion AND a field goal in the final two minutes.
If any of you watch games on the NFL Network, you know how painful it is to listen to Bryant Gumbel. Specifically when Gumbel states repeatedly that player X appears to have the first down. Bryant, the guy literally made the first down by nine yards, it’s not apparent, it’s definite!!!!!
The Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week and as usual there were a couple of snubs, but nothing too earth-shattering. The biggest surprise might have been that Jacksonville and Tampa Bay had zero Pro Bowlers and one could make the case for Fred Taylor and/or Joey Galloway this season. Do you realize Taylor and Galloway have NEVER been to a single Pro Bowl? It’s rare to see players with over 10,000 career yards not make at least one appearance to the NFL’s All-Star Game.
While I’m on the topic of the Pro Bowl - props to “Big Game” Torry Holt, who was selected to the game for the seventh time in his career despite playing on a bad knee and under difficult circumstances in St. Louis this season. FYI – Holt is the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (83.8).
Brian Billick needs to be fired like right now. Last week he decided to NOT go for the touchdown on fourth and goal from the one-yard line with 12 seconds left. The Ravens kicked the field goal instead to tie the game and lost in overtime. He is an awful coach and deserves to be banned from the NFL.
Do we really have to see and hear from Bill Parcells again? He is simply an ego maniac and an annoying figure these days.
Steve Young made an astute observation a couple of Monday’s ago when he said that Aaron Stecker gave the Saints a better chance to win because he is a true running back while Reggie Bush is a specialty player. I could not have said it better myself. Stecker obviously does not have the talent that Bush has, but New Orleans can just hand the ball off to him and pound defenses. Bush dances to much at the line of scrimmage and might be too undersized to play every down and you’re not going to line him up at wide receiver every snap so what do you do with him? New Orleans has played suspect defenses over the last two weeks, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team has performed much better offensively with Stecker as the every down back.
Bobby Engram has played in the league for 12 years, yet never had a 1,000-yard season until now. Already with a career high in yardage, Engram needs just four receptions and two touchdowns to post personal bests in those categories as well. I guess some things do age like fine wine.
Start or Bench?
As usual, I'll start with a recap of Thursday night's game. As a disclaimer for this week, for games that have weather issues, the Instant Accountability will be a little more lenient than usual...
Pittsburgh 41, St.Louis 24
Start: Torry Holt, STL - Despite the fact that Bulger threw 3 TD's, Holt caught none of them. In fact, he only caught 3 passes all game. I didn't see it, but apparently he got into a yelling match with HC Scott Linehan at one point, probably because they weren't throwing to him!
Prediction: 6 catches, 85 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 3 catches, 41 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Santonio Holmes, PITT - It's never fun to start the week 0-2, as Holmes proved me wrong with an early 83 yard reception. Other than that, he was pretty quiet. But even though he didn't score, most teams would take 13 points from their #2/#3 WR...
Prediction: 5 catches, 60 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 4 catches, 133 yards, 0 TD's.
Dallas at Carolina
Start: Steve Smith, CAR - Smith has received lots of hatred from fantasy owners for his performance this year, but how can you blame him based on the production from CAR's QB's? Carr's YPA is 4.7, which is ridiculously awful. Vinny's is 5.5, and Matt Moore's is 6.3. Moore averaged 7.7 YPA last week, which gave Smith owners some hope. And considering that in 6 of Smith's 7 home games, he has had at least 5 catches, this may be the week that he finally has a game worthy of his draft position....
Prediction: 6 catches, 92 yards, at least a 30 yard catch or a TD.
Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Jones appears to be heading in the wrong direction; for the year he's averaging 3.7 YPC, but in his last 4 games, he's averaging just 3.3. On the flip side, Barber's averages over the last 4 have been higher (5.3, vs. 5.0 for the year). Not to mention the fact that in terms of touches, it the split has become close to 60/40 in those games. Jones might get some extra carries if the game gets out of hand early, but I wouldn't take my chances with him this week...
Prediction: 55 total yards, 0 TD's.
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - I talked about Curtis a bit in my ranking notes for this week, and although I'm not a big fan overall, he should definitely be a solid #2 WR this week. Against the two worst defenses in terms of yards allowed per game through the air (MINN/DET), Curtis averaged 22.2 YPC. If McNabb plays the way he did last week, Curtis will have at least 80 yards... And by the way, why hasn't anyone made light of the fact that his middle name is "Deevon"? Fantastic...
Prediction: 4 catches, 90 yards, probably 1 TD...
Bench: Aaron Stecker, NO - You'd think I would have learned my lesson after last week, but PHI is very strong against the run, allowing only 14.7 fantasy PPG to RB's, 6th best in the league. And in their last 5 games, PHI has not allowed more than 75 yards rushing or multiple TD's to any RB. Stecker's pass catching abilities may help his #'s, but I can't see anything close to a repeat performance of last week...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 4 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Kansas City at Detroit
Start: Kolby Smith, KC - Smith has been decent in 2 of his 3 starts since his dominating performance against OAK, with 80+ yards rushing in 2 of the 3 games, but no TD's. Look for #'s closer to the ones he put up in Week 12, as DET is almost as bad at stopping the run than OAK, allowing more yards from scrimmage per game than any team. They've also let up more rushing TD's than everyone but, you guessed it, the Raiders. I had him ranked 13th this week, but don't be surprised if he finishes in the top 10...
Prediction: 24 carries, 105 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - KC is allowing less than 200 YPG through the air, and just 16 passing TD's. Kitna has been horrific lately, with 12 INT's in his past 6 games, after throwing just 6 in his first 8. KC isn't a very good team, but the way the Lions are playing right now, just about any team could beat them...
Prediction: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, at least 1 INT.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Start: Rudi Johnson, CIN - Rudi's last 6 vs. CLE: 137 rushing yards per game, with at least 115 yards in all but one of the games, and at least 1 TD in every game. His only 100 yard game of 2007 also came against CLE. Needless to say, he OWNS the Browns. I don't care how up and down he's been this year. You can mark down at least 90 yards and a TD from Johnson this week, unless his hamstring issues don't allow him to play... (Ed. Note: subsitute Watson for Rudi if he doesn't play, as the numbers will be the same, if not better on the receiving yard totals...)
Prediction: 19 carries, 93 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Bench: Phil Dawson, CLE - I couldn't bring myself to recommending any player to be benched against CINCI's defense, so I figured I'd go with Dawson, who may have 4-5 XP's, but not many FG's. He's 6th in the league in kicking, but has only attempted 3 FG's or more twice all season, and only once since Week 2 against CINCI...
Prediction: 2 FG's, 4 XP's (2 if weather is a factor).
Green Bay at Chicago
Start: Donald Lee, GB - I don't have too many TE's in this week's column, so I'll go out on a limb a bit here. Lee hasn't been that great lately, with 9 catches and 115 yards in his last 4 games (along with 2 TD's). But although CHI isn't bad against the pass, they haven't been that great vs. TE's, who are averaging 7.5 fantasy PPG, 4th worst in the league. I don't think his yardage #'s will be that high again, but he should be able to find the end zone for the 3rd straight game...
Prediction: 4 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Mushin Muhammad/Bernard Berrian, CHI - I feel like I'm taking the easy way out on this one, but the stats don't lie; since Mushin joined the Bears, they have COMBINED to average 2 catches for 45 YPG against GB, and only 2 TD's (6 games for Berrian, 4 for Muhammad). And GB has only allowed an average of 8.5 receptions to WR's this year, 2nd only to the Raiders. Bears fans may be in for another long day...
Prediction: No more than 45 yards receiving for either player, 0 TD's.
NY Giants at Buffalo
Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Because he missed a handful of games during the first month of the season, you tend not to hear his name too much. But Jacobs has been extremely consistent in virtually every game; not including Week 1, he has 100+ total yards in 6 out of the 8 games he played, with 80+ in the other two. He doesn't score a lot, but has been an outstanding #2 RB this year. With rain and snow showers possible on Sunday, and Eli Manning continuing to be awful, look for the G-Men to pound the ball with Jacobs, resulting in another 100+ yard day...
Prediction: 25 carries, 109 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Robert Royal, BUF - In 56 career games, Royal has just one game with over 50 yards receiving, zero games with more than 4 receptions, and just 1 multi-TD game (2 weeks ago vs MIA). On the year he's averaging 2 catches for 16 yards per game. Hopefully you have better options, as I was misguided in my attempt to sell him as a "Start" last week...
Prediction: 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD's.
Houston at Indianapolis
Start: Dallas Clark, IND - (note, for both players, I'm assuming that Dungy is leaving the starters in for the entire game...) In his career, Clark has scored at least 1 TD in 4 of the 6 games against HOU, with just under 50 YPG. With the way Manning plays against the Texans, Clark should be good for 50 yards and a TD this week, making him a solid TE start...
Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Kevin Walter, HOU - INDY has allowed a staggeringly low 5.64 YPA this year, and no team allows less fantasy points against WR's. Andre Johnson should be fine to start, but I wouldn't bother with Walter this week. Since AJ has returned, Walter has only topped 50 yards receiving once, averaging just 37 YPG. Again, the only way he'd be worthy of starting is if we knew Dungy's plan for starters in this game. Unless it is revealed (highly doubtful), I wouldn't take my chances..
Prediction: 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's.
Pittsburgh 41, St.Louis 24
Start: Torry Holt, STL - Despite the fact that Bulger threw 3 TD's, Holt caught none of them. In fact, he only caught 3 passes all game. I didn't see it, but apparently he got into a yelling match with HC Scott Linehan at one point, probably because they weren't throwing to him!
Prediction: 6 catches, 85 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 3 catches, 41 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Santonio Holmes, PITT - It's never fun to start the week 0-2, as Holmes proved me wrong with an early 83 yard reception. Other than that, he was pretty quiet. But even though he didn't score, most teams would take 13 points from their #2/#3 WR...
Prediction: 5 catches, 60 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 4 catches, 133 yards, 0 TD's.
Dallas at Carolina
Start: Steve Smith, CAR - Smith has received lots of hatred from fantasy owners for his performance this year, but how can you blame him based on the production from CAR's QB's? Carr's YPA is 4.7, which is ridiculously awful. Vinny's is 5.5, and Matt Moore's is 6.3. Moore averaged 7.7 YPA last week, which gave Smith owners some hope. And considering that in 6 of Smith's 7 home games, he has had at least 5 catches, this may be the week that he finally has a game worthy of his draft position....
Prediction: 6 catches, 92 yards, at least a 30 yard catch or a TD.
Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Jones appears to be heading in the wrong direction; for the year he's averaging 3.7 YPC, but in his last 4 games, he's averaging just 3.3. On the flip side, Barber's averages over the last 4 have been higher (5.3, vs. 5.0 for the year). Not to mention the fact that in terms of touches, it the split has become close to 60/40 in those games. Jones might get some extra carries if the game gets out of hand early, but I wouldn't take my chances with him this week...
Prediction: 55 total yards, 0 TD's.
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - I talked about Curtis a bit in my ranking notes for this week, and although I'm not a big fan overall, he should definitely be a solid #2 WR this week. Against the two worst defenses in terms of yards allowed per game through the air (MINN/DET), Curtis averaged 22.2 YPC. If McNabb plays the way he did last week, Curtis will have at least 80 yards... And by the way, why hasn't anyone made light of the fact that his middle name is "Deevon"? Fantastic...
Prediction: 4 catches, 90 yards, probably 1 TD...
Bench: Aaron Stecker, NO - You'd think I would have learned my lesson after last week, but PHI is very strong against the run, allowing only 14.7 fantasy PPG to RB's, 6th best in the league. And in their last 5 games, PHI has not allowed more than 75 yards rushing or multiple TD's to any RB. Stecker's pass catching abilities may help his #'s, but I can't see anything close to a repeat performance of last week...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 4 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Kansas City at Detroit
Start: Kolby Smith, KC - Smith has been decent in 2 of his 3 starts since his dominating performance against OAK, with 80+ yards rushing in 2 of the 3 games, but no TD's. Look for #'s closer to the ones he put up in Week 12, as DET is almost as bad at stopping the run than OAK, allowing more yards from scrimmage per game than any team. They've also let up more rushing TD's than everyone but, you guessed it, the Raiders. I had him ranked 13th this week, but don't be surprised if he finishes in the top 10...
Prediction: 24 carries, 105 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - KC is allowing less than 200 YPG through the air, and just 16 passing TD's. Kitna has been horrific lately, with 12 INT's in his past 6 games, after throwing just 6 in his first 8. KC isn't a very good team, but the way the Lions are playing right now, just about any team could beat them...
Prediction: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, at least 1 INT.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Start: Rudi Johnson, CIN - Rudi's last 6 vs. CLE: 137 rushing yards per game, with at least 115 yards in all but one of the games, and at least 1 TD in every game. His only 100 yard game of 2007 also came against CLE. Needless to say, he OWNS the Browns. I don't care how up and down he's been this year. You can mark down at least 90 yards and a TD from Johnson this week, unless his hamstring issues don't allow him to play... (Ed. Note: subsitute Watson for Rudi if he doesn't play, as the numbers will be the same, if not better on the receiving yard totals...)
Prediction: 19 carries, 93 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Bench: Phil Dawson, CLE - I couldn't bring myself to recommending any player to be benched against CINCI's defense, so I figured I'd go with Dawson, who may have 4-5 XP's, but not many FG's. He's 6th in the league in kicking, but has only attempted 3 FG's or more twice all season, and only once since Week 2 against CINCI...
Prediction: 2 FG's, 4 XP's (2 if weather is a factor).
Green Bay at Chicago
Start: Donald Lee, GB - I don't have too many TE's in this week's column, so I'll go out on a limb a bit here. Lee hasn't been that great lately, with 9 catches and 115 yards in his last 4 games (along with 2 TD's). But although CHI isn't bad against the pass, they haven't been that great vs. TE's, who are averaging 7.5 fantasy PPG, 4th worst in the league. I don't think his yardage #'s will be that high again, but he should be able to find the end zone for the 3rd straight game...
Prediction: 4 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Mushin Muhammad/Bernard Berrian, CHI - I feel like I'm taking the easy way out on this one, but the stats don't lie; since Mushin joined the Bears, they have COMBINED to average 2 catches for 45 YPG against GB, and only 2 TD's (6 games for Berrian, 4 for Muhammad). And GB has only allowed an average of 8.5 receptions to WR's this year, 2nd only to the Raiders. Bears fans may be in for another long day...
Prediction: No more than 45 yards receiving for either player, 0 TD's.
NY Giants at Buffalo
Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Because he missed a handful of games during the first month of the season, you tend not to hear his name too much. But Jacobs has been extremely consistent in virtually every game; not including Week 1, he has 100+ total yards in 6 out of the 8 games he played, with 80+ in the other two. He doesn't score a lot, but has been an outstanding #2 RB this year. With rain and snow showers possible on Sunday, and Eli Manning continuing to be awful, look for the G-Men to pound the ball with Jacobs, resulting in another 100+ yard day...
Prediction: 25 carries, 109 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Robert Royal, BUF - In 56 career games, Royal has just one game with over 50 yards receiving, zero games with more than 4 receptions, and just 1 multi-TD game (2 weeks ago vs MIA). On the year he's averaging 2 catches for 16 yards per game. Hopefully you have better options, as I was misguided in my attempt to sell him as a "Start" last week...
Prediction: 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD's.
Houston at Indianapolis
Start: Dallas Clark, IND - (note, for both players, I'm assuming that Dungy is leaving the starters in for the entire game...) In his career, Clark has scored at least 1 TD in 4 of the 6 games against HOU, with just under 50 YPG. With the way Manning plays against the Texans, Clark should be good for 50 yards and a TD this week, making him a solid TE start...
Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Kevin Walter, HOU - INDY has allowed a staggeringly low 5.64 YPA this year, and no team allows less fantasy points against WR's. Andre Johnson should be fine to start, but I wouldn't bother with Walter this week. Since AJ has returned, Walter has only topped 50 yards receiving once, averaging just 37 YPG. Again, the only way he'd be worthy of starting is if we knew Dungy's plan for starters in this game. Unless it is revealed (highly doubtful), I wouldn't take my chances..
Prediction: 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's.
Start: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
Jones-Drew has not done much recently as Fred Taylor has re-emerged as a workhorse running back. This week’s opponent should allow both runners to be successful, but look for Jones-Drew to punch in at least one short touchdown and get more carries than usual because of a lopsided score.
Prediction: 15 carries for 65 yards with 1-2 TD’s.
Bench: Dominic Rhodes/LaMont
The Raiders can certainly run the ball, but will Rhodes or Jordan get more carries? Because of the uncertainty, avoid both players if possible. Collectively they might put up okay numbers, but neither can be trusted at this point.
Prediction: Combined 125 yards from scrimmage.
Start: Edgerrin James, ARI
James has over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns this season, but it’s been a very quiet year without many big games. This could be the week James explodes, however. The Falcons do not defend the run well and there is a good chance the Cardinals will get the lead early this week. Expect
Prediction: 24 carries for 100 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Jerious
Prediction: 11 touches for 70 yards.
We recommended Garcia last week in this column and he burned us. There was some rust last week with Garcia, but that was because he missed the previous two games with a back injury. Garcia does not throw interceptions so he certainly won’t hurt you in that area. Look for Garcia to bounce back this week against his former team.
Prediction: 220 yards with 2 TD’s.
Bench: Shaun Hill, SF
In his first career start last week against
Prediction: 200 yards with 2 turnovers.
Start: Bobby Engram, SEA
Engram is having a career season and Matt Hasselbeck has a lot of trust and confidence in the 12-year veteran.
Prediction: 6 receptions for 80 yards with a touchdown.
Bench: Derrick Mason
Mason has been solid this season, but this is not a good spot for him.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 50 yards.
NY Jets at
White is starting to show signs of life and this week’s opponent cannot defend the run. The formula for success all season for the Titans has been to hand the ball off to White and play solid defense. There is no reason that won’t be the case on Sunday against the hapless Jets.
Prediction: 23 carries for 90 yards with a touchdown.
Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ
Jones will probably finish the season with around 1,100 yards rushing, but he has been unusable in many leagues because of his lack of scoring (one touchdown all year). The Titans are solid against the run, especially with Albert Haynesworth in the lineup, so do not expect much from Jones, who provides very little as a receiver.
Prediction: 17 carries for 60 yards.
Start:
Gaffney and the other Patriots’ receivers were not a factor last week due to the poor weather conditions in Foxboro. That should not be the case this week against a porous Dolphins’ defense. Donte Stallworth has fallen out of favor in
Prediction: 5 receptions for 65 yards with a touchdown.
Bench: Cleo Lemon, MIA
Lemon had one of his best games as a pro in Sunday’s win over
Prediction: 185 yards with 1 TD and 2-3 turnovers.
Start: Ryan Longwell, MIN
Longwell has been very solid this year, hitting 19-of-22 field goal attempts, including 10-of-11 between 40 and 49 yards. The Vikings often stall deep in their opponent’s territory and the Redskins are one of the best in the league at preventing teams from scoring touchdowns inside the red zone. As such look for Longwell to kick a couple of field goals, including one from long range
Prediction: 2-3 field goals with at least one from 40+ yards.
Bench:
Portis was coming off four lousy games until he looked like his former self in last week’s win over the Giants. Portis has struggled in general this season, not breaking many long runs and averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. The Vikings boast the best rush defense in the league so it’s not going to be easy for Portis this week. We’ve recommended sitting him a couple of times this year and this week it will pay off.
Prediction: 15 carries for 55 yards.
Start: Antonio Gates, SD
Gates has alternated productive and unproductive games over the last four and this week he is due for a good one with just one catch for eight yards last Sunday. Gates has been slowed by a back injury, but was rested for most of the second half last week with the Chargers up big. Look for Rivers to hook up with Gates a couple times in the first half, including a scoring strike.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 60 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Jay Cutler, DEN
Cutler has played well as of late, but there are a couple of major issues to overcome this week - he has a back injury and the Chargers are a great home team. Also, Cutler has struggled more than most quarterbacks on the road this season with just six touchdowns and six interceptions. Expect Cutler and the Broncos to fizzle this week against a hot
Prediction: 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
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