FF Upgrades/Downgrades after Week 13

Below is a list of player upgrades/downgrades in fantasy football value following Week 13 of the NFL season (excluding the NE-BAL game on Monday night).

UPGRADES

Running Backs
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Ron Dayne, HOU – Dayne had 18 carries for 86 yards with a touchdown in Sunday’s loss at Tennessee and has run well of late. Filling in for an injured Ahman Green (knee), Dayne has averaged 19 carries and 94 yards over the last four games with a pair of touchdowns over that span. The bruising Dayne is not a great runner, but he moves the chains and has actually shown some big-play ability with at least one run of 20+ yards in three of the last four games. Green has been slow to recover from his injury so Dayne could be the starter for at least a couple more games. The downside to Dayne right now is the team’s quarterback situation – starter Matt Schaub suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday and figures to miss some time. Sage Rosenfels is the backup quarterback and has shown flashes at times, but he probably won’t move the ball like Schaub does so Dayne’s productivity could be hampered. Keep in mind, however, that Houston plays the Broncos, a team that cannot stop the run, in Week 15 or the first round of the playoffs for many fantasy owners.

Fred Taylor, JAC – Taylor ran for 104 yards on 14 carries in Sunday’s loss at Indianapolis and had the exact stat line the week before in a win over Buffalo. Three weeks ago, Taylor carried the ball 20 times for 85 yards so he has been productive in terms of yardage over the last three games. The problem with Taylor is that he doesn’t get the ball much from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line and he is not much of a factor in the passing game with just seven catches this season. With that said, Taylor has shown a nice burst lately and is making the type of cuts that he made in his rookie season of 1998. Surprisingly, fragile Fred has somewhat busted the label that he is injury prone, not missing a game this year and just one in 2006. Taylor should continue to put up solid yardage totals just don’t expect many touchdowns, although he is always capable of popping a long scoring run.

Reuben Droughns, NYG – Droughns had 10 carries for just 25 yards on Sunday, but he scored another short touchdown, a two-yard score to give him six for the season. The two-time 1,200-yard rusher actually scored another touchdown on Sunday, but Bears’ coach Lovie Smith threw a red flag late to challenge the previous play. Derrick Ward, who was filling in for starter Brandon Jacobs, suffered a serious leg injury in the game and could be done for the season. Jacobs has a hamstring issue which often takes a lot of time to heal properly so Droughns is a valuable commodity right now. At the very least Droughns figures to remain the goal-line back, even if Jacobs returns soon.

Wide Receivers
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Sidney Rice, MIN – Rice has scored in each of the last two games and seems to be getting more comfortable in his rookie season. It also doesn’t hurt Rice that Tarvaris Jackson is actually making plays and not looking like the league’s worst quarterback. We’ve discussed Rice in a couple of columns before, but for those that don’t know much about him, he’s big and fast with excellent leaping ability. Rice has scored in three of the last five games and two of those touchdowns came from 40+ yards so he is already a playmaker in just his freshman year. He’ll probably be inconsistent as a fantasy performer for the rest of 2007, but he might be a good option for you depending on the team’s matchup. And if you’re in a keeper league, you should seriously consider Rice because he might be a top 20 wide receiver within a couple of years.

DOWNGRADES

Running Backs
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Jesse Chatman, MIA – Chatman has played admirably for an injured Ronnie Brown (knee), but has struggled lately and the Dolphins stink in general. Chatman ran for only 26 yards on 11 carries in Sunday’s loss to the Jets and had to leave the game in the second half after he aggravated his sprained ankle. The right ankle has been bothering him for weeks and he is going to have to deal with the pain for the rest of the year. Chatman is a tough runner and is still the main guy in Miami, especially after Ricky Williams suffered a season-ending injury in his first game back, but things do not look great schedule wise with Baltimore and New England on the horizon. A starting running back always has value in fantasy football, but don’t expect too much from Chatman moving forward.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC – It’s only fitting we downgrade Jones-Drew after upgrading his backfield mate Fred Taylor in this same column. After running for 101 yards four weeks ago, Jones-Drew has not done much since. Granted, Jones-Drew is scoring touchdowns but he is not receiving as many carries as Taylor and has not been as productive with those touches of the ball. MJD was having a terrible game two weeks ago against a soft Bills’ rush defense until he ran for a 17-yard touchdown in garbage time. He would have finished that contest with nine rushes for negative seven yards if not for the scoring run on his last carry of the game. There are whispers by people close to the Jaguars organization that the team is calling too many running plays to the outside for Jones-Drew, which is not his strength because he is a good inside runner and can hide behind the offensive line. Whatever the case, Jones-Drew has not looked good over the last three games and has been playing mainly on 3rd downs and in red zone situations. The touchdowns are nice, but MJD needs to see the ball more on 1st and 2nd down to be the fantasy force many expect him to be.

Reggie Bush, NO – Bush had another so-so game in Sunday’s loss, running for 64 yards and catching just three passes for 13 yards. Bush still hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game this season and has a long run of only 22 yards, which is also his career high. In Bush’s defense he has been dealing with a shin injury, but he wasn’t explosive earlier in the year when healthy. The receptions and receiving yards is what make Bush a valuable fantasy option, but he has a mere six catches over the last two games. If he’s not a monster in the passing game, he is not much of a threat at the current time. Bush has a couple of decent matchups in the team’s remaining games but unless he turns things around completely, look for him to be just an average fantasy performer.

Tight Ends
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Antonio Gates, SD – Gates had one of the worst games you’ll ever see from a superstar in Sunday’s win at Kansas City, catching just one pass for a loss of one yard. The more disturbing part is that Gates was targeted just two times by Philip Rivers, who didn’t air it out but attempted 21 passes. Either Rivers is doing a poor job finding Gates or defenses are paying extra attention to the talented tight end. Regardless, Gates has been very inconsistent this season, especially over the last five games with two strong performances and three awful outings. We’re not recommending you to drop Gates or make some nonsensical trade because he is still a premier tight end. However, Gates has been more up-and-down this year than usual, a sign that he is mortal.