Heading into Week 17, there were a total of 95 RB’s with at least 20 carries this year. I decided to take a closer look according to age grouping.
Group A (21-25 years old) – 42 players.
Group B (26-29 years old) – 42 players.
Group C (30+ years old) – 11 players.
For Group A, the yards per carry on average was 4.4, with total yards from scrimmage just over 600 yards (447 rushing, 155 receiving) on 123 touches (103 attempts, 20 receptions).
For Group B, the YPC actually dipped to 4.1, but the total yards from scrimmage jumped 26%, to over 750 yards per player (577 rushing, 181 receiving) on 164 touches (140 attempts, 24 receptions). This seems to be the “prime” years for a RB, as you’ll see below.
As expected, for Group C, the YPC dropped significantly, to 3.2. In addition, the yards from scrimmage was less than 400 yards per player (309 rushing, 70 receiving) on just 79 touches (71 attempts, 8 receptions). Of the RB’s that are 30+, only 6 of them have played at least 12 games: Aaron Stecker, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor, Mike Sellers, and Shaun Alexander. After looking at this list, you have to give an enormous amount of credit to Fragile Fred, as he is having a spectacular season, regardless of age.
So now that this season is in the books from a fantasy standpoint, let’s take a look at which players are making the jump into Group B for the 2008 season, as well as the players to be wary of, as they will hit the big “3-0” at some point during the season. In total, there are 12 RB’s turning 26 in 2008, as well as 12 RB’s turning 30. Below is a list of all 24 players, along with notes on each (in order by DOB)…
Group B
Michael Turner (2/13/82) – Turner has over 1,200 yards rushing in his career on just 217 carries (5.6 YPC). Depending on what starting RB opportunities open up, look for him to have a strong season, as he should be an excellent RB2 next year. Turner is already a THIMD favorite, and will likely be a great value pick in fantasy drafts…
Cadillac Williams (4/21/82) – Williams has been injury prone, with 2 games missed in each of his first two seasons, and 12 games this year. Because of this, he does have low mileage on the legs, but with the breakout campaign by Earnest Graham, there may be a timeshare in TB (or Graham may have the job to himself), limiting Williams’ potential.
Musa Smith (5/31/82) – Smith has been injury-prone throughout his career, but may get a few bites on the FA market this year, as there aren’t too many young RB’s with low mileage available. Smith has proven himself to be a good pass-catcher out of the backfield as well, with 24 receptions this year, despite very limited playing time. If he re-signs with BAL, draft him only if you have McGahee. If he signs elsewhere as a starter, his value will increase to at least an RB3, depending on where he ends up…
Brandon Jacobs (7/6/82) – Although he missed a few games due to injury, Jacobs was a monster during the second half. Although he may not be listed as a top 12 RB next season, I expect him to be a low-end RB1 next year, and will be a great 2nd round pick…
Jason Wright (7/12/82) – Wright did okay when Jamal Lewis was injured, but don’t look for him to be anything more than a handcuff once again next year, as Lewis is firmly entrenched as the starter in CLE. Wright and Jerome Harrison are already signed through 2008, so I don’t know if either one of them will be draft-worthy next year…
Andre Hall (8/20/82) – You never know what’s going on in Shanny’s head, but it appears that the starting RB in DEN will be Selvin Young next year, with Hall serving as a backup. Henry is signed through 2012, but he’ll probably be either traded for a draft pick, or given his rolling (err…) walking papers…
Kevin Jones (8/21/82) – Jones has been extremely injury prone the past two years, and with the ACL tear, will once again be drafted as no more than a RB3, as you just can’t trust him to give you 14+ games. Keep an eye on the Mike Martz situation, as a new offensive coordinator may help Jones next year.
Leon Washington (8/29/82) – Washington is a very interesting player for 2008, as Thomas Jones will be joining the 30+ club (see below). Don’t be surprised to see either Jones get injured, opening up the starting RB gig for Leon, or, at the minimum, at least 10-12 touches per game for Washington, who showed flashes of brilliance for the Jets in what has been a forgettable season…
Leonard Weaver (9/23/82) – Unless Maurice Morris (who I expect to be the starter in SEA next year) gets hurt, Weaver will be nothing more than a handcuff for MoMo next year, as Alexander will probably not be around…
Samkon Gado (11/13/82) – No fantasy impact…
Ryan Grant (12/9/82) – After amassing just 27 yards in the first 7 weeks, Grant has exploded as the starter for the Packers, averaging just under 100 yards rushing per game since Week 8. Before the season started, there were rumors that GB would be targeting Michael Turner in 2008, but clearly Grant has earned the starting job for 2008 and beyond, and will be an early draft pick in most leagues next year…
Cedric Benson (12/28/82) – I don’t really know what to say about Benson. He was pretty terrible this year, but from a fantasy standpoint, as long as the Bears were winning (which wasn’t very often), Benson did okay, with an average of 22 touches and 77 total yards per game. What was interesting to me was that in losses, Benson averaged 3.74 YPC, while in wins, he averaged just 3.18. Don’t be surprised if there is a timeshare with Peterson next year (or if CHI drafts a RB), which will limit Benson’s fantasy impact…
Group C
Kenny Watson (3/13/78) – Watson had a breakout year in 2007 with Rudi hobbled by injury. With rumors that Johnson will be released after this season, look for Watson to be the main beneficiary, as DeDe Dorsey does not have what it takes to be an every down back.
Ron Dayne (3/14/78) – Dayne will be drafted in your league next year, and dropped at least once, as he is every year. Between the always lingering weight issues, and the fact that he hasn’t played a full season since 2002, limits his value for next year. That being said, he still has a chance to set a career high in rushing yards on Sunday, as he is only 85 yards behind his rookie year mark of 770 yards on the ground…
Maurice Hicks (7/22/78) – No fantasy impact…
Edgerrin James (8/1/78) – Edge hasn’t been as bad as most fantasy owners have thought this year, but the fact that he has a lot of mileage on his legs (13th all time in attempts, and should move up to 12th after this week), and only has 12 TD’s in two years with ARI (he had 14 in 2005 with INDY) throws up a ton of red flags going into next season. He’ll probably be drafted as an RB2, but I wouldn’t want him on my team…
Michael Bennett (8/13/78) – No fantasy impact…
Thomas Jones (8/19/78) – As I mentioned with Leon Washington, Jones is another risky pick for next year. Due to his inability to find the end zone, don’t expect Jones to be drafted in the Top 20 for RB’s. He’s another one with high mileage, with just under 1,650 career attempts. I expect him to continue a downward trend next year, as he probably only has another couple of years left in the league…
Reuben Droughns (8/21/78) – Droughns probably won’t be back with the Giants, as they already have Jacobs, Ward, and rookie Ahmad Bradshaw. At best, Droughns will be a handcuff elsewhere. In other words, he’s not worth anything more than a late round pick at best next year…
Correll Buckhalter (10/6/78) – Buckhalter is signed through the 2008 season, so look for another year of being fantasy stud Brian Westbrook’s backup (and essential handcuff). Buckhalter has been a perfectly acceptable backup this year, with around 300 yards rushing, and 4 TD’s. Again, I wouldn’t bother drafting him unless you have Westbrook on your roster…
Travis Henry (10/29/78) – Even though he signed a 5 year deal with the Broncos in 2007, I expect Henry to be on his 3rd team in 3 years in 2008. As I mentioned earlier, I just can’t see the Broncos wasting millions in cap space on Henry when they have a much cheaper alternative in Selvin Young. If he latches on as a starter elsewhere, he’ll definitely be drafted as a RB2, but don’t expect him to go in the Top15, as he did in many leagues this year…
LaMont Jordan (11/11/78) – Jordan will be released by the Raiders at some point in the coming months, as they already have a veteran back in Dominic Rhodes, a young back in rookie Michael Bush, who will be competing for the starting job next year, as well as Justin Fargas, who played very well as the starter. Jordan has relatively low mileage given his age (792 carries in 97 games), but I don’t expect him to be signed to be a starter by anyone. Instead, he’ll probably accept a 1 year as a backup with a team that is in need of a veteran back…
Deuce McAllister (12/27/78) – McAllister burned many fantasy owners (myself included) by tearing an ACL for the 2nd time in 3 years. Although McAllister is signed through 2012, he’s not guaranteed to make the Saints next year, as they already have Reggie Bush, as well as Aaron Stecker, who has been solid in relief of the other two in the past few weeks. If Deuce makes the team, it’ll probably be a timeshare between him and Bush again, with the split leaning more towards Bush. Either way, expect his draft value to be a lot lower next year…
Heath Evans (12/30/78) – No fantasy impact…
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