Monday, December 17, 2007

Scouting the League

This week I will take a look at a pair of young and exciting wide receivers that play in the NFC North Division.

 

SIDNEY RICE, Minnesota Vikings

 

After posting just one productive game over the first seven, Rice has turned things around in his rookie season and become a legitimate playmaker. Rice has scored three touchdowns over the last six games and has been used in a variety of ways, even completing a pair of passes for 94 yards, including a 79-yarder to Visanthe Shiancoe, in a win over Oakland on November 18.

 

Rice was selected in the second round of April's NFL Draft after playing two seasons at the University of South Carolina. Rice established himself as one of the premier wide receivers in the country at South Carolina, catching 70 passes for 1,143 yards and 13 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. After tearing up the SEC in his first season, Rice was not as quite as productive as a sophomore, finishing with 1,090 yards and 10 touchdowns. Many draft experts felt Rice would have been an early first-rounder if he had stayed in school one more season.

 

Blessed with a lanky frame (6-4, 202), Rice is more than just a tall receiver. Rice has deceptive speed and quickness and makes just as many plays down the field as he does across the middle. With incredible leaping ability and body control, Rice has a knack for finding the ball in a crowd and has good hands to pull down high passes. The talented Rice runs well after the catch, although that is not necessarily the best part of his game, and could benefit from bulking up a bit. Even at his current weight, Rice should be used prominently in the red zone because he normally can outleap defensive backs for the ball.

 

Tarvaris Jackson has started to develop into at least a respectable quarterback and has been utilizing Rice more and more. Two of Rice's last three touchdowns have come from 40 yards or longer and he posted a career-high 82 receiving yards in a win over the Giants on November 25. Minnesota faces three below average pass defenses over the final set of games in Chicago, Washington and Denver. While the Broncos have not given up many passing yards this season, they have allowed 22 touchdowns in the air, a good thing for the athletic Rice. Expect at least one big outing from Rice over the final three weeks, but because he is a rookie, it's hard to know which game that will happen.

 

Long term there is a lot to like about the 21-year old Rice, other than his obvious physical skills. The Vikings do not have much talent at wide receiver on their current roster, including first and second round busts Troy Williamson and Robert Ferguson, so Rice should be a clear-cut starter next season. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson still needs some time to grow, although he is athletic and has somewhat of a strong arm and Brad Childress seems to have faith in him. What would really help Rice, however, is if Minnesota signed a free agent quarterback in the off-season. Those types of personnel decisions will probably be based on how Jackson plays over the final three games and whether or not the Vikings make the playoffs. Regardless, Rice has undeniable talent and the presence of rookie sensation Adrian Peterson makes Minnesota's offense a formidable one in the future. If you're in a keeper league, Rice is the kind of young player you want on your roster and should produce many 1,000-yard seasons in the near future.

 

GREG JENNINGS, Green Bay Packers

 

Jennings has become Green Bay's best receiver this season and one of the brightest stars in the league. Despite missing the first two contests of the year, Jennings has scored 11 touchdowns and is averaging 17.7 yards per catch through the first 13 games. The second-year Jennings has at least one touchdown in nine of 11 games this season and Brett Favre has grown to trust him in key situations.     

 

The Packers selected Jennings in the second round of the 2006 NFL Draft after he completed a four-year career at Western Michigan. Jennings fared well against the competition in the MAC, especially as a senior when he caught 98 passes for 1,259 yards with 14 touchdowns.

 

In his rookie season Jennings started out the gates quickly, recording a pair of 100-yard games and three touchdowns over the first five weeks. Jennings severely sprained his ankle against Miami in Week 7 and while he missed only one game, the injury lingered for most of the season and reduced his explosiveness. Despite the injury, Jennings had a respectable rookie year, finishing the season with 45 receptions for 632 yards and three touchdowns.

 

This year Jennings has established himself as one of the best deep threats and overall wide receivers in the league. His 17.7 yards per catch average ranks second in the NFL among players with at least 40 receptions. At one point this season, Jennings caught the game-winning touchdown pass in back-to-back victories at Denver and Kansas City with both scores coming from 60+ yards. Jennings also made himself part of history as he hauled in the touchdown from Brett Favre that tied and broke Dan Marino's all-time career touchdown record.

 

Jennings looks like he might be the fastest wide receiver in pro football, although he ran a good but not eye-popping 4.46 at the NFL Scouting Combine in 2006. The up-and-coming Jennings routinely runs away from defensive players and has scored five touchdowns this season from 40+ yards. Jennings seems to have a second gear to blow past defensive backs, but can also make tacklers miss with quick and explosive moves. Jennings has above average leaping ability and possesses good hands and while he is not an undersized receiver (5-11, 197), he would probably be more effective on routes across the middle if he added weight/muscle. The game-breaking speed and run-after-the-catch ability is what has really separated Jennings from other receivers this season.

 

Green Bay likes to throw the ball on most plays even though they have found an emerging talent in running back Ryan Grant. Favre appears to be at the top of his game even late in his career and Jennings has been one of the reasons why Favre has played so well. The Packers have three fantasy-friendly matchups over the final month of the season with games against St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit. The only way Jennings would not produce in the final three weeks would be if Green Bay wrapped up its playoff position before the end of the season. Otherwise, look for Jennings to be effective and continue to make big plays.

 

Donald Driver has been a solid receiver for the Packers over the last six years, but his time as the team's best receiver is over so Jennings is already the go-to guy. Brett Favre appears to have gotten better with age so we might see the veteran gun slinger for a few more seasons. Even if Favre retires soon, the team might be okay with Aaron Rodgers. The former first round pick has not played much with Favre around, but got a chance to show his stuff in a loss to Dallas in late November and played really well, making good decisions and accurate throws. Learning behind Favre has probably helped the youngster so Green Bay appears to be in good shape at the quarterback position moving forward. At this point only injuries could derail Jennings, who looks like one of the best young receivers in the NFL.

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