Start or Bench?

As usual, I'll start with a recap of Thursday night's game. As a disclaimer for this week, for games that have weather issues, the Instant Accountability will be a little more lenient than usual...

Pittsburgh 41, St.Louis 24

Start: Torry Holt, STL - Despite the fact that Bulger threw 3 TD's, Holt caught none of them. In fact, he only caught 3 passes all game. I didn't see it, but apparently he got into a yelling match with HC Scott Linehan at one point, probably because they weren't throwing to him!
Prediction: 6 catches, 85 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 3 catches, 41 yards, 0 TD's.

Bench: Santonio Holmes, PITT - It's never fun to start the week 0-2, as Holmes proved me wrong with an early 83 yard reception. Other than that, he was pretty quiet. But even though he didn't score, most teams would take 13 points from their #2/#3 WR...
Prediction: 5 catches, 60 yards, 0 TD's.
Actual: 4 catches, 133 yards, 0 TD's.

Dallas at Carolina

Start: Steve Smith, CAR - Smith has received lots of hatred from fantasy owners for his performance this year, but how can you blame him based on the production from CAR's QB's? Carr's YPA is 4.7, which is ridiculously awful. Vinny's is 5.5, and Matt Moore's is 6.3. Moore averaged 7.7 YPA last week, which gave Smith owners some hope. And considering that in 6 of Smith's 7 home games, he has had at least 5 catches, this may be the week that he finally has a game worthy of his draft position....
Prediction: 6 catches, 92 yards, at least a 30 yard catch or a TD.

Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Jones appears to be heading in the wrong direction; for the year he's averaging 3.7 YPC, but in his last 4 games, he's averaging just 3.3. On the flip side, Barber's averages over the last 4 have been higher (5.3, vs. 5.0 for the year). Not to mention the fact that in terms of touches, it the split has become close to 60/40 in those games. Jones might get some extra carries if the game gets out of hand early, but I wouldn't take my chances with him this week...
Prediction: 55 total yards, 0 TD's.

Philadelphia at New Orleans

Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - I talked about Curtis a bit in my ranking notes for this week, and although I'm not a big fan overall, he should definitely be a solid #2 WR this week. Against the two worst defenses in terms of yards allowed per game through the air (MINN/DET), Curtis averaged 22.2 YPC. If McNabb plays the way he did last week, Curtis will have at least 80 yards... And by the way, why hasn't anyone made light of the fact that his middle name is "Deevon"? Fantastic...
Prediction: 4 catches, 90 yards, probably 1 TD...

Bench: Aaron Stecker, NO - You'd think I would have learned my lesson after last week, but PHI is very strong against the run, allowing only 14.7 fantasy PPG to RB's, 6th best in the league. And in their last 5 games, PHI has not allowed more than 75 yards rushing or multiple TD's to any RB. Stecker's pass catching abilities may help his #'s, but I can't see anything close to a repeat performance of last week...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 4 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD's.

Kansas City at Detroit

Start: Kolby Smith, KC - Smith has been decent in 2 of his 3 starts since his dominating performance against OAK, with 80+ yards rushing in 2 of the 3 games, but no TD's. Look for #'s closer to the ones he put up in Week 12, as DET is almost as bad at stopping the run than OAK, allowing more yards from scrimmage per game than any team. They've also let up more rushing TD's than everyone but, you guessed it, the Raiders. I had him ranked 13th this week, but don't be surprised if he finishes in the top 10...
Prediction: 24 carries, 105 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - KC is allowing less than 200 YPG through the air, and just 16 passing TD's. Kitna has been horrific lately, with 12 INT's in his past 6 games, after throwing just 6 in his first 8. KC isn't a very good team, but the way the Lions are playing right now, just about any team could beat them...
Prediction: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, at least 1 INT.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Start: Rudi Johnson, CIN - Rudi's last 6 vs. CLE: 137 rushing yards per game, with at least 115 yards in all but one of the games, and at least 1 TD in every game. His only 100 yard game of 2007 also came against CLE. Needless to say, he OWNS the Browns. I don't care how up and down he's been this year. You can mark down at least 90 yards and a TD from Johnson this week, unless his hamstring issues don't allow him to play... (Ed. Note: subsitute Watson for Rudi if he doesn't play, as the numbers will be the same, if not better on the receiving yard totals...)
Prediction: 19 carries, 93 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 1 TD.

Bench: Phil Dawson, CLE - I couldn't bring myself to recommending any player to be benched against CINCI's defense, so I figured I'd go with Dawson, who may have 4-5 XP's, but not many FG's. He's 6th in the league in kicking, but has only attempted 3 FG's or more twice all season, and only once since Week 2 against CINCI...
Prediction: 2 FG's, 4 XP's (2 if weather is a factor).

Green Bay at Chicago

Start: Donald Lee, GB - I don't have too many TE's in this week's column, so I'll go out on a limb a bit here. Lee hasn't been that great lately, with 9 catches and 115 yards in his last 4 games (along with 2 TD's). But although CHI isn't bad against the pass, they haven't been that great vs. TE's, who are averaging 7.5 fantasy PPG, 4th worst in the league. I don't think his yardage #'s will be that high again, but he should be able to find the end zone for the 3rd straight game...
Prediction: 4 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Mushin Muhammad/Bernard Berrian, CHI - I feel like I'm taking the easy way out on this one, but the stats don't lie; since Mushin joined the Bears, they have COMBINED to average 2 catches for 45 YPG against GB, and only 2 TD's (6 games for Berrian, 4 for Muhammad). And GB has only allowed an average of 8.5 receptions to WR's this year, 2nd only to the Raiders. Bears fans may be in for another long day...
Prediction: No more than 45 yards receiving for either player, 0 TD's.

NY Giants at Buffalo

Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Because he missed a handful of games during the first month of the season, you tend not to hear his name too much. But Jacobs has been extremely consistent in virtually every game; not including Week 1, he has 100+ total yards in 6 out of the 8 games he played, with 80+ in the other two. He doesn't score a lot, but has been an outstanding #2 RB this year. With rain and snow showers possible on Sunday, and Eli Manning continuing to be awful, look for the G-Men to pound the ball with Jacobs, resulting in another 100+ yard day...
Prediction: 25 carries, 109 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD's.

Bench: Robert Royal, BUF - In 56 career games, Royal has just one game with over 50 yards receiving, zero games with more than 4 receptions, and just 1 multi-TD game (2 weeks ago vs MIA). On the year he's averaging 2 catches for 16 yards per game. Hopefully you have better options, as I was misguided in my attempt to sell him as a "Start" last week...
Prediction: 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD's.

Houston at Indianapolis

Start: Dallas Clark, IND - (note, for both players, I'm assuming that Dungy is leaving the starters in for the entire game...) In his career, Clark has scored at least 1 TD in 4 of the 6 games against HOU, with just under 50 YPG. With the way Manning plays against the Texans, Clark should be good for 50 yards and a TD this week, making him a solid TE start...
Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Kevin Walter, HOU - INDY has allowed a staggeringly low 5.64 YPA this year, and no team allows less fantasy points against WR's. Andre Johnson should be fine to start, but I wouldn't bother with Walter this week. Since AJ has returned, Walter has only topped 50 yards receiving once, averaging just 37 YPG. Again, the only way he'd be worthy of starting is if we knew Dungy's plan for starters in this game. Unless it is revealed (highly doubtful), I wouldn't take my chances..
Prediction: 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's.

Oakland at Jacksonville

Start: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
Jones-Drew has not done much recently as Fred Taylor has re-emerged as a workhorse running back. This week’s opponent should allow both runners to be successful, but look for Jones-Drew to punch in at least one short touchdown and get more carries than usual because of a lopsided score.
Prediction: 15 carries for 65 yards with 1-2 TD’s.

Bench: Dominic Rhodes/LaMont Jordan, OAK
The Raiders can certainly run the ball, but will Rhodes or Jordan get more carries? Because of the uncertainty, avoid both players if possible. Collectively they might put up okay numbers, but neither can be trusted at this point.
Prediction: Combined 125 yards from scrimmage.

Atlanta at Arizona

Start: Edgerrin James, ARI
James has over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns this season, but it’s been a very quiet year without many big games. This could be the week James explodes, however. The Falcons do not defend the run well and there is a good chance the Cardinals will get the lead early this week. Expect Arizona to pound the ball with James and control the clock.
Prediction: 24 carries for 100 yards with 1 TD.

Bench: Jerious Norwood, ATL
Norwood has shown some flashes lately with a play of 25+ yards in three straight games. The Cardinals do not have a good defense, but the Falcons stink in general so they’re likely to get down early and be forced to throw a lot, killing any chance that Norwood might have had for a good game. Look for the usual numbers from the talented, yet underused Norwood.
Prediction: 11 touches for 70 yards.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco

Start: Jeff Garcia, TB
We recommended Garcia last week in this column and he burned us. There was some rust last week with Garcia, but that was because he missed the previous two games with a back injury. Garcia does not throw interceptions so he certainly won’t hurt you in that area. Look for Garcia to bounce back this week against his former team.
Prediction: 220 yards with 2 TD’s.

Bench: Shaun Hill, SF
In his first career start last week against Cincinnati, Hill played like a seasoned veteran, throwing and running for a touchdown to lead the team to victory. Hill was accurate and made good decisions, but that was against the Bengals. This week’s opponent is very good against the pass and inexperienced quarterbacks usually struggle in their second start. Look for Hill to make a couple of key mistakes and not do much in general.
Prediction: 200 yards with 2 turnovers.

Baltimore at Seattle

Start: Bobby Engram, SEA
Engram is having a career season and Matt Hasselbeck has a lot of trust and confidence in the 12-year veteran. Baltimore’s secondary is really banged up and has played terribly as of late so look for Hasselbeck to have a big game and find Engram early and often.
Prediction: 6 receptions for 80 yards with a touchdown.

Bench: Derrick Mason
Mason has been solid this season, but this is not a good spot for him. Seattle has allowed a league-best 10 passing touchdowns this season and has been a dominant home team for a number of years. Kyle Boller (concussion) might not play, which would mean regular snaps for rookie Troy Smith. Mason will probably do fine in terms of receptions, but do not expect much yardage or a touchdown with a rookie quarterback starting.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 50 yards.

NY Jets at Tennessee

Start: LenDale White, TEN
White is starting to show signs of life and this week’s opponent cannot defend the run. The formula for success all season for the Titans has been to hand the ball off to White and play solid defense. There is no reason that won’t be the case on Sunday against the hapless Jets.
Prediction: 23 carries for 90 yards with a touchdown.

Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ
Jones will probably finish the season with around 1,100 yards rushing, but he has been unusable in many leagues because of his lack of scoring (one touchdown all year). The Titans are solid against the run, especially with Albert Haynesworth in the lineup, so do not expect much from Jones, who provides very little as a receiver.
Prediction: 17 carries for 60 yards.

Miami at New England

Start: Jabar Gaffney, NE
Gaffney and the other Patriots’ receivers were not a factor last week due to the poor weather conditions in Foxboro. That should not be the case this week against a porous Dolphins’ defense. Donte Stallworth has fallen out of favor in New England’s offense with Gaffney seeing more snaps in three-receiver sets. Expect Brady to get close to Peyton Manning’s touchdown record and have a scoring strike to Gaffney.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 65 yards with a touchdown.

Bench: Cleo Lemon, MIA
Lemon had one of his best games as a pro in Sunday’s win over Baltimore, throwing for 315 yards and a touchdown. That doesn’t mean you should use him as a starter, however. Besides, Lemon was not even having a particularly good game last week against a suspect Ravens’ secondary until he chucked a long touchdown pass in overtime. Lemon is always good for a couple of turnovers so stay away from him unless you are seriously desperate or mentally ill.
Prediction: 185 yards with 1 TD and 2-3 turnovers.

Washington at Minnesota

Start: Ryan Longwell, MIN
Longwell has been very solid this year, hitting 19-of-22 field goal attempts, including 10-of-11 between 40 and 49 yards. The Vikings often stall deep in their opponent’s territory and the Redskins are one of the best in the league at preventing teams from scoring touchdowns inside the red zone. As such look for Longwell to kick a couple of field goals, including one from long range
Prediction: 2-3 field goals with at least one from 40+ yards.

Bench: Clinton Portis, WAS
Portis was coming off four lousy games until he looked like his former self in last week’s win over the Giants. Portis has struggled in general this season, not breaking many long runs and averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. The Vikings boast the best rush defense in the league so it’s not going to be easy for Portis this week. We’ve recommended sitting him a couple of times this year and this week it will pay off.
Prediction: 15 carries for 55 yards.

Denver at San Diego

Start: Antonio Gates, SD
Gates has alternated productive and unproductive games over the last four and this week he is due for a good one with just one catch for eight yards last Sunday. Gates has been slowed by a back injury, but was rested for most of the second half last week with the Chargers up big. Look for Rivers to hook up with Gates a couple times in the first half, including a scoring strike.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 60 yards with 1 TD.

Bench: Jay Cutler, DEN
Cutler has played well as of late, but there are a couple of major issues to overcome this week - he has a back injury and the Chargers are a great home team. Also, Cutler has struggled more than most quarterbacks on the road this season with just six touchdowns and six interceptions. Expect Cutler and the Broncos to fizzle this week against a hot San Diego squad.
Prediction: 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.