FF Upgrades/Downgrades after Week 12

Below is a list of player upgrades/downgrades in fantasy football value following Week 12 of the NFL season (excluding Monday night's MIA-PIT game).

UPGRADES

Running Backs
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Adrian Peterson, CHI – The other Adrian Peterson took over for an injured Cedric Benson (ankle) in the second quarter of Sunday’s win against Denver and finished with 17 carries for 45 yards with a touchdown. Peterson has been a special teams performer for most of his six-year career, but he’s been solid as a backup running back. And Peterson has some positive traits, he has good size (5-10, 210) and power and catch the ball well out of the backfield (five receptions for 41 yards on Sunday). Benson’s injury looks to be serious, he was spotted on the sidelines with crutches, and there are rumors that it’s of a season ending nature. Peterson will shoulder the load on the ground if Benson is out, but rookie Garrett Wolfe will be in the mix as well. Peterson should receive all of the goal line work, however, so he is certainly valuable for the stretch run of the fantasy season.

Jamal Lewis, CLE – Lewis ran for 134 yards on a season-high 29 carries and scored a touchdown in Sunday’s win over Houston. Lewis has been inconsistent this season, but has been productive in three of the last four games so it’s time to upgrade the veteran runner. At this point in his career, Lewis is not the explosive player he used to be. But he plays in a potent offense and keeps the chains moving with his physical running style. As a bonus, the schedule looks favorable for Cleveland from a fantasy perspective with Arizona, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincinnati and San Francisco coming up over the final five games. As the weather gets colder expect Lewis to be heavily involved in the offense and remain effective with weak opponents on the schedule.

Kolby Smith, KC – Smith made his first start of the season on Sunday against Oakland and finished with 31 carries for 150 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The only negative for Smith was that he got stuffed on a key fourth down and one late in the game from deep inside Raiders’ territory. Otherwise, Smith displayed some nice skills, reading blocks and showing a nice burst through holes. The one thing to keep in mind is that Oakland’s rush defense is one of the worst in the league, but Smith’s performance was impressive nonetheless. Larry Johnson’s foot injury appears to be serious, but at the very least Smith looks like a capable backup if Johnson should return.

Wide Receivers
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Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – Fitzgerald had another monster game in Sunday’s overtime loss, catching nine passes for 156 yards and scoring twice. For the season Fitzgerald has 75 catches for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns, but he has been ridiculous over the last three games with 25 receptions for 323 yards and five touchdowns. Arizona has talked about getting Edgerrin James going, but Kurt Warner and the passing game has been the team’s most effective way of moving the ball all season. Anquan Boldin (hip) is not 100 percent, but he’s playing through the injury and actually helping Fitzgerald because opposing defenses have to account for both of them. The Cardinals have a couple of nice fantasy matchups down the stretch so expect Fitzgerald to keep on his torrid pace.

DOWNGRADES

Quarterbacks
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Eli Manning, NYG – Manning’s annual second-half collapse has already begun. Manning was awful in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, finishing with just one touchdown and four interceptions, three of which were returned for a touchdown. Over the last four games, Manning has three touchdowns against six picks with a completion percentage of 56 percent. It's not all his fault, Manning has been hurt by drops and a couple of the picks he threw on Sunday were fluky, but he is making poor decisions in general. For all the talent Manning has and for whatever reason, he simply does not play well in the second half of the season. Manning threw 24 touchdowns in both 2005 and 2006, but he tossed just 10 scores in the second half of 05’ and only nine in the final eight games of 06’. Manning’s interception rate has increased in the second half of the last two years as well, averaging 1.31 picks per game over the final eight contests as compared to 0.88 interceptions per game over the first half of 2005 and 2006. What does this all mean? If you believe in historical trends, expect Manning to struggle in the final five games of this year.

Running Backs
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LenDale White, TEN – White has not had much success over the last three games, including Sunday’s dismal performance of eight carries for 27 yards. In fairness to White, Tennessee has played poorly as a team in the last three games and has been forced to play from behind, minimizing the running game. And White is not a good receiver so he’s basically useless when the Titans are playing catch up. Furthermore, Chris Brown has returned and been used more often than third-string back Chris Henry was when Brown was out with an ankle injury. The bottom line is that White is a big, slow running back that is not dynamic enough to be a force unless Tennessee starts playing better and controls the clock.

Wide Receivers
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Lee Evans, BUF – We upgraded Evans a few weeks back, but he had another disappointing game in Sunday’s loss at Jacksonville, grabbing only two passes for 19 yards. Evans was actually held without a catch until the final couple of minutes so his stat line is much worse than appears. After exploding for big games against the Jets and Cincinnati in Weeks 8 and 9, Evans has posted just 10 catches for 124 with no touchdowns over the last three weeks. J.P. Losman has started lately and while he has a strong arm, he has not been able to connect with Evans on long pass plays or any kind of pattern for that matter. Evans has faced tough defenses (New England and Jacksonville) over the last two games, but he needs to be downgraded because of his inconsistency. Trent Edwards was just named the starting quarterback for the rest of the season, yet another strike against Evans because Edwards prefers to throw the short stuff and dump passes off to backs and tight ends. The speedy Evans is always capable of going off, but at this point there is no way to tell when or if it will happen.

Tight Ends
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Tony Gonzalez, KC – Gonzalez had just three catches for 48 yards in Sunday’s loss to Oakland and has not been productive since Brodie Croyle took over as the starting quarterback a few games ago. Croyle likes to go down the field to his receivers on the edges while former starter Damon Huard preferred to use Gonzalez in the middle of the field. Gonzalez is not totally useless - we’re talking about a Hall of Fame player and one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the history of the league. But it’s unreasonable to expect 100-yard games like Gonzalez had earlier in the season when Huard was the starting quarterback.