Start: Donald Driver, GB - As good as DAL has been this year, they have only been okay against the pass. They're allowing just under 160 yards per game to WR's, which sandwiches them between NYJ and STL, not exactly juggernauts. They also have allowed 15 TD's through the air - the same as NYJ and STL. While this can be contributed to the fact that teams are throwing far more against DAL because they are trailing most of the time (only 4 teams have allowed more passing attempts.). However, guess who is #2 in attempts this year? You guessed it, Brett Favre. With
Prediction: 7 catches, 105 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Patrick Crayton, DAL – Crayton has been the ultimate hit or miss WR this year; in Weeks 4-5, he had 13 catches, 257 yards, and 3 TD’s. Other than those two games, he has 20 catches, 225 yards, and 2 TD’s. Combine that with the fact that GB has a very strong pass defense, and the fact that Crayton is just coming back from ankle injury makes him an unappealing matchup this week. The only saving grace for Crayton is the possibility that Charles Woodson doesn't play. If he is inactive, Crayton may catch another couple passes, but I still don't expect him to have a big game...
Prediction: 4 catches, 52 yards, 0 TD's.
Start: Tony Gonzalez, KC - I still don't trust Brodie Croyle, but I can't dispute the fact that Tony G. has been superb against SD, with an average of 6 catches for 81 yards in his last 5 games, with no less than 5 catches in any game. He had his highest yardage game with Croyle last week, although it was still less than 50 yards. Still, with KC needing a win to salvage their season and facing a SD team that 1-4 on the road, I just have a hunch that he has a decent game in him this week...
Prediction: 5 catches, 77 yards, 0 TD's
Bench: Phillip Rivers, SD - Yeah, Rivers had a surprisingly good game last week against Baltimore. What was surprising to me that this was the third time he has thrown 3 TD's in a game this year. The games following the other two? 211 yards, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, and 197 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT (against MINN, no less). In his 3 starts against KC, Rivers has averaged 191 yards passing, with 2 TD's and 5 INT's. Given this information, I'd strongly advise you giving him a seat on your bench this week...
Prediction: 199 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT's.
Houston at Tennessee
Start: LenDale White, TEN - Everyone seems to be so down on him this week, seeing that he has been mediocre the past two weeks. But I like him to have a good bounce-back game against HOU this week, who are tied for 4th worst in the NFL in YPC allowed. The key is to get him the ball often, as in Weeks 7-9, he averaged 28 carries for 112 yards per game. In Weeks 10-12, he averaged about 10 carries for 30 yards per game. He had a big game against HOU earlier in the year, and another one is on the way...
Prediction: 24 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Ron Dayne, HOU - As I mentioned in my rankings, TENN has really missed Albert Haynesworth, as their rush defense has looked lost without him, averaging 160 rushing yards per game on average, versus around 70 when he was playing. If he is back this week, the nice stretch of games Dayne has been on will come to an end. Dayne has been a surprise this year, with at least 15 or more carries in 7 games this year, and has averaged almost 100 yards per game in his last 3. If AH does play, he won't get 70 yards rushing...
Prediction: 16 carries, 60 yards, 0 TD's.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Start: David Garrard, JAX - Like Dunn, Garrard is making his 2nd appearance in a row in the "Start" column... In his last start against INDY, Garrard was on pace for another nice game, completing 8 of 12 passes before going down with an ankle injury that kept him out of action for 3 weeks. The Colts may be 4th in the league in INT's (16), but considering that Garrard has a whopping zero in 209 attempts, I don't expect to see any this week... His #'s, like usual will be boring, but in a week where many fantasy owners need a win desperately, 12-14 points from Garrard is almost a given....
Prediction: 220 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT's, 4 carries, 19 yards rushing.
Bench: Anthony Gonzalez, IND - Gonzalez was probably claimed off of the waiver wire in your league this past week, if not as an FA after the news that Marvin Harrison may be out for the rest of the regular season was brought to light. Jacksonville's pass defense may let up a lot of yards through the air (246.5, 5th worst), but doesn't let up a lot of passing TD's (11, 6th best). I don't think this is going to be a high scoring affair, so unless Gonzalez has a ton of passes thrown his way as he did against ATL last week, I don't see him putting up very good #'s this week...
Prediction: 5 catches, 62 yards, 0 TD's.
Buffalo at Washington
Start: Jason Campbell, WAS - Campbell is nearing every week starter status, with 2 straight 300+ yard games, along with 6 TD's in his past 3 games. Yes, he still makes mistakes (costly ones at that), but the good has far outweighed the bad lately. What's more amazing is that his top WR's are either old (McCardell, Thrash), a bit banged up (Moss), or a perennial underachiever (Randle-El). And this week he gets to face a BUFF team that is 4th worst in passing yards allowed per game, and 5th worst in TD's allowed through the air. Expect Campbell to come out blazing in what should be a one-sided affair...
Prediction: 280 yards passing, 2-3 TD's, 1 INT.
Bench: Lee Evans, BUF - Here are Trent Edwards' numbers for his last 3 starts before getting injured: 176 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 153 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 130 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. See a pattern here? In Evans' last 3 games, he has a TOTAL of 10 catches, 124 yards, and 0 TD's. Yeah, I don't think you want him anywhere near your starting lineup this week. And with the immortal Fred Jackson likely to get the start at RB, Edwards may struggle to reach 125 yards passing this week...
Prediction: 3 catches, 39 yards, 0 TD's.
Detroit at Minnesota
Start: Sidney Rice, MIN - Rice is a player to keep an eye on next year, a la Santonio Holmes from last year. If MINN can snag McNabb next season, he'll be a very nice sleeper pick. In two of the past 3 games Sidney has had over 60 yards receiving along with 2 TD's, and looks to continue his run against DET, who is 2nd worst (behind MINN) in passing yards allowed per game. With AP back, he should be able to spread the field more, allowing Jackson to throw some long passes Rice's way...
Prediction: 4 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - On the surface, Kitna looks like a no-brainer start; facing the worst pass defense facing a team that has more passing attempts than all but 5 teams this year. However, what you don't know is that Kitna has had his struggles against MINN in recent years; in his last 3 games, he has averaged 255 yards per game, which is okay, but nothing spectacular considering how bad the Vikes have been the past two years. However, the numbers that stick out most is that he has only 3 TD's, along with an ugly 7 INT's, including two 3 INT games. And after picking off Eli 4 times last week, it could be a long game for Kitna, as the Vikes can tie the Lions for 2nd in the NFC North with a win...
Prediction: 265 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT's.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Start: Warrick Dunn, ATL - Going into the season, Dunn was the 35th RB taken on average in ESPN drafts this year, and has turned out to be a pleasant surprise this year, much to the chagrin of Jerrious Norwood. In his last 4 games, Dunn has averaged 100 total yards per game, along with 2 of his 3 TD's. This week he gets to face a STL rush defense that has allowed more rushing TD's than every team except OAK & MIA, making this a favorable matchup. If your #2 RB can get close to 100 total yards and a TD, you'll probably be in very good shape to win this week...
Prediction: 17 carries, 70 yards, 3 receptions, 22 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Drew Bennett, STL - Much to my surprise, Isaac Bruce was not on this week's injury report, despite spraining his hand last week against NO. Bennett is a reach to start with, but considering that he has some hamstring issues, along with the fact that in his two games where Frerotte was QB he had 6 catches for 67 yards combined (with a TD), I would stay far away this week. ATL is actually decent against the pass, ranking 7th this year in yards allowed through the air, making almost impossible to justify starting Bennett in any format this week...
Prediction: 3 catches, 38 yards, 0 TD's.
Seattle at Philadelphia
Start: Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - So far my track record with recommending sure-fire starters has been spotty at best, but Hass has been on a monster roll lately, with 2 TD's in 5 of his last 6 games, as well as 275+ passing yards in 4 of them. And while he has thrown for at least 1 INT in 8 of his last 9 games, Philly's pass defense is pretty ordinary (last in the league in INT's with 6), Although Alexander looks like he'll be back this week, I don't think he'll be getting that many carries, as Hass will be throwing downfield often to Engram and Branch...
Prediction: 270 yards passing, 2 TD's, 0 INT's.
Bench: Reggie Brown/Kevin Curtis, PHI - If McNabb is back at 100% and plays, I'd upgrade Curtis a bit, but going with the assumption that Feeley starts, I think he will not come close to the #'s he put up last week, as Westbrook is going to be a full workload this week, with at least 20 carries. And there's that fact that SEA continues to lead the league in TD passes against, with only 6 allowed all year. To put it in to perspective, the 11-0 Patriots have allowed 15, despite 35 less passes attempted against them. Curtis will have a better game regardless, but I don't like either of these guys this week...
Prediction: No more than 4 catches, 60 yards receiving for each, with 0 TD's.
New York Jets at Miami
Start: Thomas Jones, NYJ
Jones had a rough game against Dallas last week, rushing for just 40 yards on 17 carries, but he is a much better player than that. And keep in mind that Jones still hasn’t scored this season - he is too talented to be held out of the end zone for much longer, even on a suspect team. Look for Jones to be involved heavily against a below average Miami rush defense.
Prediction: 22 carries for 90 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Marty Booker, MIA
There is a good chance you’re not relying on Booker this season, unless you’re in a deep league, but someone for Miami has to be benched in this column and Booker is that guy. He actually had a nice game in the rain and slop at Pittsburgh on Monday, catching five passes for 54 yards and making the biggest gain of the game (21-yard reception). And Booker is the team’s most experienced receiver and has enjoyed success in the past. However, Booker has scored just one touchdown this year because of shaky quarterback play and the team likes to rely on the run anyway. With a rookie quarterback starting, look for Miami to pound the ball with Jesse Chatman (or Samkon Gado).
Prediction: 4 catches for 50 yards.
San Francisco at Carolina
Start: Trent Dilfer, SF
Frank Gore is the obvious choice here, but we’re gonna go out on a limb. Dilfer looked real sharp in last week’s upset win at Arizona, throwing for 256 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. Dilfer spread the ball around and even got Gore involved in the passing game, which is smart because Gore is their best offensive weapon. Carolina has just an average pass defense so the matchup is favorable for Dilfer to post solid numbers.
Prediction: 225 yards and 2 TD’s.
Bench: DeShaun Foster, CAR
Last week Foster had one of the worst games of the season for any running back in the league, losing five yards on nine carries. He actually had a six-yard rush which means his other eight carries went for negative 11 yards. Foster is an average runner and doesn’t score touchdowns so even though the 49ers do not defend the rush very well, don’t expect much.
Prediction: 13 carries for 50 yards.
Cleveland at Arizona
Start: Jamal Lewis, CLE
Lewis surprised me last week, rushing for 134 yards and scoring a touchdown in the team’s win over Houston. Lewis has been productive in three of the last four games and should not have much trouble this week against an average Cardinals’ defense. Expect the Browns to utilize Lewis, who scores on a short touchdown run.
Prediction: 20 carries for 95 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Edgerrin James, ARI
After a promising start to the season, James has been below average over the last few months. James does not have a run longer than nine yards in the last four games and has not gone over 88 yards rushing since Week 5. James was not used at the goal line last week, Marcel Shipp scored on a one-yard touchdown run, and he does not catch passes anymore so he appears to be on the decline fantasy wise. Cleveland has an awful defense overall, but Kurt Warner and the passing game are Arizona’s strong point.
Prediciton: 16 carries for 65 yards.
Denver at Oakland
Start: Justin Fargas, OAK
Fargas had another big game in Sunday’s win at Kansas City with 139 yards and a touchdown. Fargas has only been shut down once in the four games since being named starter and that was against Minnesota’s great rush defense. Although the Broncos have defended the run better lately, they’re still a suspect unit. Look for Fargas to get the ball early and often and put up good numbers.
Prediction: 110 yards from scrimmage.
Bench: Javon Walker, DEN
Walker (knee) played just eight snaps on Sunday and even though Mike Shanahan said he would receive much more playing time this week, Walker is somewhat unreliable at this point. Don’t get us wrong – Walker is one of the most talented wide receivers in the game and can go nuts at any time, but it’s probably going to take him a week or two to regain his explosiveness. Only play Walker if you have limited options or just want to take a chance for the home run.
Prediction: 4 receptions for 40 yards.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Start: Reggie Bush, NO
When healthy, most fantasy owners don’t consider benching Bush on a week-to-week basis. However, Bush is a little dinged up with a shin injury and has not run well over the last three games, concerning some owners. There are some things to like about Bush this week, however. The Buccaneers are much better at defending the pass so there could be some running lanes and the team lightened Bush’s workload last week, keeping him fresh for this key divisional game. Expect better rushing numbers from Bush this week and his usual stats in the passing game.
Prediction: 110 yards from scrimmage with 4-6 receptions.
Bench: Joey Galloway, TB
Galloway struggled last week as Jeff Garcia sat out most of the game with a back injury. Garcia has not practiced this week and is unlikely to play at New Orleans, meaning either Luke McCown or Bruce Gradkowski will start. Look elsewhere for a receiver because McCown and Gradkowski might be the worst pair of backup quarterbacks in the league.
Prediction: 3 catches for 45 yards.
New York Giants at Chicago
Start: Adrian Peterson, CHI
Peterson has been a solid backup for years and now he gets his chance to shine with Cedric Benson’s season-ending ankle injury. Peterson has good size and power and can catch the ball well so at the very least he should be productive in the passing game. Rookie Garrett Wolfe will be in the mix, but Peterson should receive most of the carries and all the goal line work.
Prediction: 85 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD.
Bench: Jeremy Shockey, NYG
Shockey, who has always been a little overrated, has just two truly productive games this season and done nothing lately. Chicago’s defense is not what it used to be, but Eli Manning looks shaky right now. Expect the Giants to focus on their running game with Shockey catching just a couple of passes.
Prediction: 4 catches for 38 yards.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Start: Heath Miller, PIT
Miller was held without a catch last week, but that was mainly due to some of the sloppiest field conditions of all time. Cincinnati has been abused all season by opposing tight ends and Miller is one of the best in the league at his position. Look for Miller to catch a bunch of passes and make at least one big play, either a long gain or touchdown.
Prediction: 5 receptions for 65 yards with a 25+ yard catch or TD.
Bench: Rudi Johnson, CIN
Johnson had one of his best games of the season last week, finishing with 88 yards on 25 carries and scoring a touchdown. This week things will get much tougher for Johnson, however, as the Steelers are second in the league in rush defense and have allowed a league-best two touchdowns on the ground. The Bengals do seem committed to using Johnson so he’ll probably receive a lot of work, but don’t expect great results.
Prediction: 17 carries for 65 yards.
New England at Baltimore
Start: Stephen Gostkowski, NE
It’s too easy to advise starting most of the Patriots offense so we’re going to take a different approach. Gostkowski has yet to attempt more than two field goals in a game this season so the law of averages says he’s going to get three of four chances sooner than later. Call this a somewhat of a hunch, but if you have Gostkowski and another effective kicker and can only start one, go with Gostowski this week.
Prediction: 3 field goals and millions of extra points.
Bench: Willis McGahee, BAL
McGahee has played well this year, but the lack of fire power on the Ravens offense is going to hurt his numbers in the long run. He has been able to score a touchdown in each of the last six games, but he’s been held to 60 yards or less in three of the last four. McGahee was a factor in the passing game earlier in the season, but has been unproductive in that role over the last five games with 11 receptions for only 49 yards. Chances are the Patriots are going to get up early on the Ravens and force them to throw so don’t expect much from McGahee this week, especially considering he hasn’t been catching passes lately.
Prediction: 12 carries for 50 yards, 2 receptions for 10 yards.
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