Friday, November 2, 2007

Start or Bench? (Week 9)

Denver at Detroit
Start: Brandon Marshall, DEN - Surprisingly, Gusto didn't beg me to do this particular write up on his own... Nonetheless, Marshall is in line for a career game this week against the slightly improved but still brutal DET pass defense. He might hit the century mark for yards along with a TD as well...
Prediction: 7 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Jon Kitna, DET - Kitna is at the tail end of his "sell-high" phase, as a solid running game has allowed Kitna to throw the ball a lot less. And seeing that he is facing Bly and Bailey this week, there's a reason Gusto has Kevin Jones ranked #1...
Prediction: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT's.

Cincinnati at Buffalo

Start: Lee Evans, BUF - The Bills are actually playing pretty well right now, and Evans had a big game once Losman came back in relief for an injured Trent Edwards. The two have developed a strong chemistry the past few years, and in facing a miserable Cinci pass defense, Evans may go over 100 yards for the 2nd week in a row...
Prediction: 5 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Rudi Johnson, CIN - Is anyone else convinced that he is healthy again? This guy has probably been the most consistent player in fantasy the past few years, but all those carries seem to be catching up with him. If Watson plays, I'll be very surprised if they don't ease Rudi back to his role as starting tailback...
Prediction: 14 carries, 67 yards, 0 TD's, 1 catch, 9 yards.

Carolina at Tennessee

Start: Jeff King, CAR -
With Carr starting again, I have more confidence in King having a big game over Steve Smith, which is a shame. Smith owners probably started off the season well with Delhomme at QB, but are struggling now, as he has not put up #1 numbers... And because TENN has such a good rush defense, look for Carr to throw a ton of passes King's way for the 2nd week in a row...
Prediction: 7 catches, 75 yards, 0 TD's.

Bench: Chris Henry, TENN - Henry has put up very solid numbers as a change of pace/garbage time back, but unless this game turns out to be a blowout, I don't think he'll get enough touches to make an impact this week. It'll be interesting to see what TENN does with him in the offseason though, as LenDale White is proving his worth as a #1 RB for them...
Prediction: 8 carries, 38 yards, 2 catches, 18 yards, 0 TD's.

Green Bay at Kansas City

Start: Dwayne Bowe, KC -
I've probably said this before, but Bowe to me is probably the biggest rookie surprise this year. He looked like a deer in headlights in training camp, and now he is a fairly solid #2 receiver on many fantasy teams. Damon Huard seems to favor Bowe more than anyone except Tony Gonzalez, so even against a fairly tough GB defense, he should still put up good #'s this week...
Prediction: 5 catches, 80 yards, 0 TD's.

Bench: Ryan Grant, GB -
With Wynn out for the year, Grant officially has the #1 role in GB, at least until he has a bad game and Morency/Jackson fight it out afterwards. While you may have burned your #1 waiver spot on him this week, I hope you don't have to use him right away...
Prediction: 18 carries, 49 yards, 1 catch, 11 yards, 0 TD's.

San Diego at Minnesota

Start: Chris Chambers, SD - As a recovering addict from the "I have drafted Chris Chambers more than once" club, it pains me to put him on this list. But because Vincent Jackson is ridiculously overrated, someone has to catch the ball besides Gates, especially against the Vikes. His yardage #'s weren't that great last week, but look for that to change against MINN....
Prediction: 6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: All Minnesota WR's -
I was going to take the easy way out and pick Chester again, but I figured I'd go with someone else. If you are starting any MINN WR, it is either:

a. A ridiculously deep league
b. You are a Vikings fan (and your team is already out of contention)

At this point there is no reason to own any of these guys...
Prediction: No WR with more than 4 catches or 60 yards, 0 TD's.

Washington at New York Jets

Start: Chris Cooley, WAS -
Cooley's numbers have dipped a bit lately because he has been relied upon more for his blocking than pass receiving. Although that may be the case again this week, don't forget: they're playing the JETS! Another TD is highly likely...
Prediction: 4 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ -
What a disappointment this guy has been for NYJ. People forget how bad Jones was earlier in his career with the Cardinals, and it looks like unless he is playing on a solid team, he sucks! 0 TD's midway through the season has fantasy owners scrambling to move him for 40 cents on the dollar, but still can't get any takers...
Prediction: 16 carries, 58 yards, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TD's.

Arizona at Tampa Bay

Start: Anquan Boldin, ARI -
Now that Boldin has recovered from his hip injury and had a week of rest after last week's bye, he is primed for a big game against a TB defense that is a little overrated. Watch for Warner to target Boldin early and often...
Prediction: 6 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD.

Bench: Michael Bennett, TB
- When Bennett got traded to TB a few weeks ago, fantasy owners everywhere snapped him up as if it was 2002 again! In the 4 years since his 1 good year, Bennett has not rushed for more than 500 yards in a season. His yards per carry have never been bad, but he just can't carry a full load, as he has been very injury-prone...
Prediction: 13 carries, 46 yards, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TD's.

San Francisco at Atlanta

Start: Jerious Norwood, ATL - Norwood hasn’t done a whole lot this season, but it’s not really his fault. For some reason coach Bobby Petrino has an attachment to Warrick Dunn. Petrino has taken a lot of heat in the local media for not giving more carries to Norwood, who has a single game high of just nine rushes. This could be the week he gets 15 carries and that would translate into some strong numbers against a below average 49ers rush defense.
Prediction: 13 carries for 85 yards, 3 catches for 30 yards.

Bench: Alex Smith, SF - Smith attempted 43 passes in Sunday’s loss to New Orleans and reported some soreness this week. He will play at Atlanta, but he’s still not 100 percent. Regardless of health, Smith is rusty and does not have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver and his star running back is playing on a gimpy ankle. Ideally for the 49ers they get the lead and play ball control. That is a strong possibility against an equally bad Falcons team, so do not expect much from Smith.
Prediction: 185 yards passing, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Jacksonville at New Orleans

Start: Drew Brees, NO - Hate to be repetitive, we recommended Brees in this column last week, but the Saints passing game is clicking right now. Over the last three games, Brees has eight touchdowns against just one interception. Brees is spreading the ball around (nine different players caught at least one pass last week) so defenses cannot focus on one or two individuals. Brees is the type of player that stays in the proverbial zone for long stretches so hop on the train. Prediction: 240 yards passing and 2-3TD’s.

Bench: Fred Taylor, JAC - Unless Taylor rips off a long run, he won’t score a touchdown. That’s not the type of player you generally want in your lineup. Taylor received more carries than Maurice Jones-Drew last week because MJD was coming of a knee sprain. Jones-Drew is healthier now and LaBrandon Toefield is in the mix for short yardage and goal line carries. Taylor will probably get around 10-12 carries and that is not much to work with for a guy that is not going to score.
Prediction: 12 carries for 50 yards.

Seattle at Cleveland

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - Hasselbeck has been dealing with an oblique injury, but he did practice on Wednesday so it appears he’ll play with no problem on Sunday. Cleveland has the worst overall defense in the league so this is a great spot for Hasselbeck even if he is not 100 percent. As an additional bonus, D.J. Hackett (ankle) and possibly Deion Branch (foot) are expected to return to the lineup.
Prediction: 225 yards and 2 TD’s with 0 INT’s.

Bench: Jamal Lewis, CLE - Lewis is not as ineffective as some think, but he has definitely lost a step or two and is not the player he was back in 2003 when he ran for 2,066 yards. The Seahawks are average in rush defense this season so it’s not really a good or bad matchup for Lewis. But expect Seattle to jump on the Browns early and force them to pass which is Cleveland’s strength anyway.
Prediction: 50 yards rushing.

New England at Indianapolis

Start: Laurence Maroney, NE - We advised you to start Maroney last week and although he did not score, he came through with 112 yards from scrimmage. Sammy Morris (chest) probably won’t play again so Maroney will see most of the carries. Maroney will score this week, guaranteed.
Prediction: 85 yards rushing and a touchdown.

Bench: Kenton Keith, IND - Keith was a trendy waiver pickup a few weeks ago, but his value has already decreased after Sunday’s monster performance by Joseph Addai. Keith would have been serviceable in most leagues if coach Tony Dungy stuck to what he said about keeping Addai fresh. But Addai is the workhorse again and Keith won’t see the field much.
Prediction: 3 carries for 10 yards.

Houston at Oakland

Start: Kevin Walter, HOU - Walter has been putting up good numbers for two reasons. First, Andre Johnson (knee) hasn’t played since Week 2. Secondly, the Texans have been playing from behind lately and have been forced to air it out, maximizing Walter’s opportunities. Johnson is expected to miss one more game so ride out Walter while you can.
Prediction: 6 catches for 85 yards.

Bench: Josh McCown, OAK - McCown was officially named the starter by coach Lane Kiffin on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean you should use him. McCown is always a threat to put up some decent yardage because he will take his shots down the field, but he also does not protect the ball well. On top of that, McCown missed a bunch of games with a toe injury so his mobility could still be limited. Despite a nice matchup this weekend against Houston, stay away from the turnover-prone McCown.
Prediction: 200 yards passing, 1 TD and 3 turnovers.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Start: Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown, PHI - Curtis has been pretty solid all season and Brown is starting to perform like many expected. Philadelphia has always been a pass-first team and the Cowboys are vulnerable to big plays. The Eagles best shot at beating Dallas is airing it out so expect good numbers from their starting wide receivers.
Prediction: 10 catches, 175 yards and at least 1 TD.

Bench: Julius Jones, DAL - Unless you’re in a deep league or are thin at RB because of injuries or byes, chances are Jones is not in your starting lineup. However, in case you thought about using Jones this week, don’t do it. Jones does not score touchdowns because Marion Barber is a red zone beast and he won’t get many yards because the Cowboys prefer the passing game. Furthermore, the Eagles defend the run extremely well so it all adds up to a bad game for Jones. Prediction: 40 yards and 0 TD’s.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Start: Jeff Reed, PIT - It’s pretty weak to recommend a kicker, but this dude is long overdue for a multi-field goal game. Reed is 10-for-11 in field goal tries this season, but has a total of only two attempts over the last four games. Pittsburgh can move the ball, but Baltimore has a stingy defense. Look for this game to be a close, low scoring affair.
Prediction: At least 3 field goals made, including one from 40+ yards.

Bench: Willis McGahee, BAL - McGahee has never been a big touchdown scorer and Monday night’s opponent has allowed just one rushing touchdown all season. The Steelers are also tough in rushing yardage allowed, giving up just 77.7 yards per game on the ground for fourth best in the league. It would be surprising if the Steelers do not completely focus on McGahee and let Steve McNair beat them.
Prediction: 75 yards from scrimmage and 0 TD’s.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Which 2 RBs do you start this week:

Marion Barber
Frank Gore
Laurence Maroney

Greg Stipkovich said...

Bundy? If so, start Barber/Maroney. If not, definately start Gore, as it appears that he is going to get the ball a lot. Barber and Maroney are a toss-up as far as I'm concerned - the yardage #'s will probably be the same, so your guess is as good as mine as to who scores the TD...

Anonymous said...

Yeah..this is Bundy..I haven't put the effort into getting an account on here so I just keep posting with the 'anonymous' identity.

Most of the ESPN guys have them ranked Barber, Gore then Maroney. Gore's injuries are my main worry. I'll have to keep an eye on the injury reports to see if it helps with the decision.

Bundy

Greg Stipkovich said...

Did you see this on Rotoworld:

In a conference call with Falcons reporters Thursday, 49ers coach Mike Nolan indicated his game plan for Week 9 is to "Give it to Frank a lot."

If that's the case, he's clearly above the other two...

Don Goss said...

Bundy, start Barber and Maroney. Seriously, don't take a chance on Gore this week. He is a game-time decision. Even if he plays, how effective will he be? Maroney and Barber will do fine, trust me.

Don/Gusto

Greg Stipkovich said...

Bundo, obviously you can make moves up to 5 minutes before the game. If Gore is inactive, listen to Gusto. If he plays, I would start him...