Friday, November 16, 2007

Scouting the League

This week I will discuss a pair of quarterbacks with many differences. One is a young quarterback with promise (Derek Anderson) while the other is savvy veteran (Jeff Garcia).

DEREK ANDERSON, Cleveland Browns

Anderson has set the league on fire this year and been a surprise to many with his strong play. In last week’s tough loss at Pittsburgh, Anderson had only 123 yards but tossed three touchdowns to give him 20 for the season. In six of nine games this season, Anderson has tossed for at least 245 yards and two touchdowns and owns an overall quarterback rating of 90.7. If Anderson stays on his current rate, he’ll finish the season with 3,966 yards and 36 touchdowns.

Baltimore selected Anderson out of Oregon State in the sixth round of the 2005 NFL Draft, but he was released by the Ravens that September. Cleveland scooped up Anderson off waivers and signed him to its practice squad where he stayed for the entire season. Anderson made a couple of starts for the Browns in 2006 and showed some potential, but finished with five touchdown passes and eight interceptions in five games.

In 2007, the Browns drafted much-heralded Brady Quinn in the first round and Charlie Frye was the favorite to win the starting job so it appeared that Anderson would be the odd man out. However, Anderson took over for Frye in the second half of the first game after Frye was sacked five times and threw for just 34 yards with an interception. Frye was subsequently traded to Seattle and Anderson has kept Quinn on the sidelines with a clipboard all season.

Blessed with a strong arm, Anderson is the prototypical NFL quarterback at 6-6, 230 lbs. DA, as his teammates refer to him, shows tremendous poise in the pocket with his cool persona. Some have labeled him as too loose, however, and question his consistency. The other knock on Anderson is the fact that he has too much trust in his own arm, thinking he can make every throw imaginable. Despite a prolific career at Oregon State, that type of logic led to a lot of interceptions (four games of 3+ INT’s during his junior year) and a poor completion percentage with the Beavers. He has matured to a certain degree, however, and somewhat cut down on the interceptions with nine picks in nine games this season. DA is also making quick decisions in the pocket, not getting sacked in his last 84 pass attempts and just eight times all season, another key sign of development.

Anderson has established a special relationship on the field with third-year wide receiver Braylon Edwards and to a lesser degree talented tight end Kellen Winslow. Edwards has caught half of Anderson’s 20 touchdowns this season and there does not seem to be any type of pass that Edwards cannot catch. Because of this and the fact that the Browns play lousy defense and are usually in shootouts, expect Anderson to put up gaudy numbers the rest of the way. As a bonus, the schedule looks phenomenal with Houston, Arizona, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincinnati and San Francisco as six of the seven remaining opponents on Cleveland’s schedule.

With Brady Quinn around the long term future for Anderson as a member of the Browns is cloudy. On the other hand, prized quarterbacks like Quinn sometimes need time to learn on the bench before they are ready to start. If Anderson continues to play well, there is a slim chance he won’t be the starter in 2008. After that though, Cleveland will probably have to make a decision. Will the team trade away a proven commodity in Anderson like San Diego did with Drew Brees or will they learn from the Chargers mistake and stand pat? Either way Quinn will probably get a shot with the Browns down the line due to injury or other circumstances, but at this point Anderson looks like a franchise quarterback.

JEFF GARCIA, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay’s bye in Week 10 came at the right time for Garcia after he had perhaps his two worst performances of the season in Weeks 8 and 9. In those two games Garcia threw only one touchdown against three interceptions and completed just 54 percent of his pass attempts. Garcia was on a roll through the first seven weeks, however, tossing seven touchdown passes with no interceptions and a completion percentage of slightly over 70 percent.

Garcia, an undrafted free agent out of San Jose State, played five seasons in the Canadian Football League before signing with the 49ers in 1999. Garcia started 10 games that season, filling in for an injured Steve Young, before taking over for good in 2000. He went to the Pro Bowl from 2000-2002, tossing 84 touchdowns and adding 12 scores on the ground over that span. After leaving San Francisco at the end of the 2003 season, Garcia made unsuccessful stops in Cleveland and Detroit before revitalizing his career with Philadelphia last year. Garcia started the final six games for an injured Donovan McNabb and went 5-1 with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions, leading the Eagles to the playoffs.

After signing with Tampa Bay, Garcia entered training camp with a minor challenge from youngster Chris Simms, who was returning from a serious spleen injury, but as expected Garcia beat out Simms in the pre-season to become the undisputed starter. Garcia has been very steady this season, through nine games he is on pace for 3,497 yards and just five interceptions.

Garcia is a crafty player that gets the most out of his ability. He seems to thrive on the criticism that he’s too small (6-1, 205) or does not have enough arm strength. Garcia is a very accurate quarterback and makes good reads in the pocket, but he is also very nimble and can create plays on the run. Some of Garcia’s best plays from his San Francisco days were when he scrambled outside the pocket and threw deep to Terrell Owens on a busted play. Still able to move around for an old man at 37 years old, Garcia is not as productive running the ball as he used to be though (just four rushing touchdowns since 2004). Garcia has a funky delivery, perhaps part of the reason he was not drafted in 1994, and does get passes batted down at the line of scrimmage from time-to-time because of his somewhat small stature, but neither shortcoming is much of a hindrance. The bottom line is that Garcia knows how to play the quarterback position and his teams are normally in playoff contention.

Even though Garcia plays in John Gruden’s quarterback-friendly system, touchdown passes have not been plentiful this season for the Bucs. While Garcia protects the ball and the team is winning, nine touchdown passes in nine games is not too appealing from a fantasy football perspective. Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard have played well this year, though, so there is hope for the rest of the year. And the schedule looks promising with Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Houston and San Francisco left up for Tampa Bay. It would be surprising if Garcia did not stay on his current pace in terms of yardage with a strong possibility of bumping up his touchdown production to finish around 20 by season’s end.

The fact that Garcia is approaching 40 years old does not necessarily mean that he is future less with the Bucs. Simms, Luke McCown and Bruce Gradkowski are the other quarterbacks on the team’s roster and while they’re young, they all have their fair share of deficiencies. It is possible Tampa Bay could select a quarterback in next year’s NFL Draft, but quarterbacks usually don’t make much of an impact in their rookie season. Garcia should be the starter in 2008 and possibly beyond so he’s not a bad keeper, especially if you’re in a deep league and he represents late-round value. Just keep in mind that Garcia is starting to look like one of those quarterbacks that is better in real life than in fantasy football.

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