Thursday, November 29, 2007

What the F*** were you thinking?

(Gusto)What up playa? Getting close to end of the season – so it’s money time. Hopefully we can give some good advice for all the fantasy owners out there.

Anyway, on to your rankings. The biggest problem I have is your ranking of Adrian Peterson at #4. Detroit has a decent run defense and according to Minnesota’s coach, Peterson is going to split carries with Chester Taylor. I love Peterson and think he is a special player, but I can’t see him putting up monster numbers this week.

The other one that stood out was Warrick Dunn at #17. Granted, St. Louis doesn’t have the best run defense in the world, but they have played better as a defensive unit lately. And Jason Snelling was just named the short yardage and goal line back by Bobby Petrino so Dunn won’t get any looks near the goal line. His value, already fading as it does every year as the season goes, just took a major hit.

Before you crucify me for my low rankings of the Denver backs, I’ll address it. I see Shanahan pulling some bull shiznit and playing everyone and then going with the hot hand, which will make it virtually impossible for fantasy players to know who to start.

Alright brotha, I’ve said my peace.

(Greg)Yeah, I may have been a little overzealous in my ranking of AP, but even though they’re talking about bringing him back slowly, I don’t see it happening. They actually have a chance at a playoff spot, and Childress is looking to save his job (potentially), so I think they’re going to do whatever is needed to win this week. Not to mention the fact that as I said in my rankings, DET is allowing over 170 total yards per game to RB’s, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Peterson…

If you took a sneak peek at this week’s Start or Bench column, you would have seen why I like Dunn so much this week; in his last 4 games, he is averaging 100 total yards per game, along with 2 TD’s. STL is 3rd worst in rushing TD’s allowed this year, so I think he’s in for a big week. Do your homework playa!

Yeah, I was going to take you to task on the DEN situation. You should have just taken the easy way out like myself and ranked them as a 4-headed monster… I like Ryan Grant as well, but 11th? You do realize that DAL is only allowing about 80 YPG on the ground, with only 5 TD’s allowed all year, right? No way he puts up big #’s again this week…

Moving onto WR’s, I have to ask; you have Lee “I’m screwed because Trent Edwards is my QB” Evans in your top 30, but don’t have Chris Henry, Joe Jurevicius, or Ike Hilliard ranked at all? Henry has a tough matchup vs. PITT, but he owned them last year: 9 catches, 193 yards, and 3 TD’s in two games! And on the flip side, Jurevicius has a fantastic matchup against ARI, and has actually been very consistent lately; in his last 5 games, he has between 4-5 catches in EVERY game. One of these days, he is going to break one – this might be the week… Ike has shown his age the past few weeks, but provided that Garcia plays (a big if, I know), he should rebound a bit. If he doesn’t play, then I completely agree with the non-ranking for him…

You talk about homework, but you fail to mention that Warrick Dunn hasn’t had a play of longer than 9 yards in the last two games (42 touches - 32 carries, 10 receptions). PPR owners got lucky when Dunn had eight receptions in a game two weeks ago, but he’s not a receiving threat anymore. And as I mentioned, Jason Snelling is the new goal-line back so unless Dunn pops a long run, he’s not scoring. I am all set with old running backs on bad teams that don’t get goal line carries.

Yeah, I might have Ryan Grant a little high. However, he catches passes, gets all the goal line carries and is a tough runner. He probably won’t go off, but I can see 100 yards from scrimmage with the strong possibility of scoring.

Lee Evans is in the top 30 cause he is capable of going off at anytime. Might not happen this week, but he is one of the more talented WR in the league.

Joe Jurevicius probably should have been ranked somewhere, but he is the team’s third passing option. He does have a good matchup, however, so he might catch some passes. His upside is limited that is for sure.

Same thing with Chris Henry, he’s the third option on the Bengals. While he’s better than Jurevicius, Pittsburgh’s defense is nasty. Unless Henry scores on some kind of bomb, he won’t be a factor.

Don’t bother with Ike Hilliard this week. Garcia hasn’t been practicing and will NOT play. Luke McCown and Bruce Gradkowski might be the worst pair of backup quaterbacks in the league. Hilliard is done son.

Where is the love for Calvin Johnson? Did you see how many targets he had last week against Green Bay? He is always a threat to score in the red zone because of his massive frame and this week the Lions are playing the Vikings, who normally have trouble defending the pass. I think you’re doing fantasy owners a disservice by not ranking him in the top 25.

Let’s get back to Dunn for a minute – whether he scores or not is a bonus. Your stat alone says it all; he’s had 42 touches the past two weeks (with 56 in the two prior weeks)! I’m completely fine with my #2 RB getting 20-25 touches, especially against a sub-par defense… I will be shocked if Evans has more than 5 fantasy points this week. No way he does anything at all with Edwards at QB… And I wouldn’t say Joe J. has low upside – if the guy catches 4-5 balls a game regardless of opponent, and he’s playing one of the worst defenses in the NFL, I’d say he is probably the best sleeper WR to start this week! And if I remember correctly, although Henry is the “3rd option”, what did the #’s look like a couple of weeks ago when we were checking scores from our phones during the tailgating festivities in Buffalo (my jacket still smells horrible from that fire, by the way…)? Oh yeah, he had 8 catches for 80+ yards (and a TD), the same as Ocho Cinco and Housh. He also outgained both of them in his first game back, so I would be hesitant to say he is always the 3rd option… As I said earlier, I agree on Ike completely if Garcia doesn’t play, so no beef there…

I agree on Calvin Johnson – he should probably be moved up a few spots, but one good week does not make him Randy Moss… Before last week’s game, he had 7 consecutive weeks of 3 or less catches and less than 60 yards in EVERY game…. I’d like to see him have a couple of good games before I anoint Megatron the next WR superstar…

I’m done – feel free to take your parting shots sir…

Sorry to the readers out there, but I gotta discuss Warrick Dunn again. Getting touches is great, but not enough for me to rank someone #17 overall on the board for the week. DeShaun Foster gets touches of the ball too and he sucks donkey bizzles. You have to be able to do something with those touches and Dunn hasn’t been. If he goes over 75 yards from scrimmage, I’ll be shocked.

What does 5 fantasy points mean? I assume you are referring to a PPR league? Well I don’t play in one and not everyone in America does either. So please tell me what you mean. Evans won’t get 50 yards? He might not, but he is explosive enough to score on a long touchdown on any given play. Therefore, he’s around #30 for the week.

Jurevicius, despite all his size, is not used prominently in the red zone - that alone gives him limited upside. 4-5 catches is nice in a PPR league, although as stated not everyone plays in those types of leagues, but otherwise I wouldn’t expect much from him. Arizona’s defense is nothing special, but to call them one of the worst in the league is a bit dramatic.

I’d have Henry in my top 40 if the Bengals weren’t playing Pittsburgh. They have the best overall defense in the league in my opinion.

I guess we’ll agree to disagree on Calvin Johnson. He has been inconsistent this year, but he’s a rookie that is emerging.

That is all for me pal. Hope you aren’t still eating turkey from Thanksgiving, although I would if I still had leftovers.

I don’t really have anything to add either, and if I had leftovers, I’d still probably be eating Turkey sandwiches today. I’ll be sure to bring up Mr. Dunn in next week’s column, as you can mark him down for 90+ yards this week… As for the 5 points for Evans, I wasn't referring to a PPR league - I don't expect him to crack 50 yards receiving this week... And finally, for our readers at home, hopefully your bed looks more comfortable than this (Gusto’s “bed” in Buffalo…):

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