Green Bay 37, Detroit 26
Prediction: 20 carries, 80 yards rushing, 3 catches, 21 yards, 0 TD’s.
Actual: 20 carries, 93 yards rushing, 2 catches, 27 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Ryan Grant, GB – I guess it's time to admit that I was wrong about this guy. I know Dallas has been pretty dominant this year, but now that the Pack have a solid RB, I think GB is the team to beat in the NFC...
Prediction: 18 carries, 60 yards, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TD’s.
Actual: 15 carries, 101 yards, 6 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD’s.
Start: Jason Witten, DAL – With the game well in hand from the early going, Romo didn't need to throw the ball as much. As a result, the Pokes had their season high in terms of rushing yards, with 174. That being said, Witten still had a nice game, with 54 yards and a TD, just one point shy of my prediction...
Prediction: 6 catches, 67 yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 4 catches, 54 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Thomas Jones, NYJ – Here's what I said on Wednesday: "Don’t expect anything more than around 60 yards rushing from Jones in what may be an ugly blowout...". So then why did I make a small wager online that the Jets would cover this week? I just hope that the spread on the Pats-Jets hits 30. Jones had another mediocre game, averaging just 2.4 YPC, while his brother Julius averaged almost double (4.6 YPC)...
Prediction: 16 carries, 59 yards, 2 catches, 17 yards, 0 TD’s.
Actual: 17 carries, 40 yards rushing, 2 catches, 17 yards, 0 TD's.
Start: Warrick Dunn, ATL – The yardage #'s were a little lower than I had predicted, but the end result is a difference of 1 fantasy point, so I'll take it. Dunn was on pace for a strong game, but because the Falcons couldn't keep up with the Colts, he didn't get that many touches in the 2nd half...
Prediction: 22 carries, 82 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards, 0 TD’s.
Actual: 17 carries, 70 yards, 2 catches, 10 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Adam Vinatieri, IND – At least he didn't miss any FG's, right? Granted, he only had one attempt (24 yard chip shot), and in most fantasy leagues, he had a mediocre 7 points, despite the fact that the Colts had their biggest offensive output in weeks... Greg's Total's So Far: Starts: 3-0-0, Benches: 2-1-0. Total: 5-1-0
Prediction: 2 FG’s, 3-4 Extra Points, 2 Misses.
Actual: 1 FG, 4 Extra Points, 0 Misses.
Start: D.J. Hackett, SEA – I feel like I’m cheating here, but when I looked at his player card on ESPN.com, I saw that he is still available in 1/3rd of all leagues? Really? I’m assuming that there are a lot of 8 team leagues that have him on the Waiver Wire, because in no league where there are more than 9 teams should Hackett be a Free Agent. In his last 3 games, Hackett has 23 catches for 295 yards, with TD’s in every game. Over the course of 16 games, he’d be on pace for 123 catches, 1,573 yards, and 16 TD’s! And with a matchup against a Rams team that is allowing over 20 points/game to WR’s, another 100 yard game is highly likely…
Prediction: 7 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Isaac Bruce, STL – Bruce has actually been halfway decent in PPR leagues the past 3 weeks, averaging 5 catches for 62 yards, along with 1 TD. However, as mentioned by myself ad nauseum, SEA doesn’t allow TD’s through the air very often. Combine that with the fact that STL just isn’t very good, and you have yourself a reason to give Bruce a seat on your bench this week…
Prediction: 4 catches, 46 yards, 0 TD’s.
Tennessee at Cincinnati
Start: Justin Gage, TENN – In the past two weeks, Gage has clearly emerged as the go-to guy for Vince Young, with 13 catches, 156 yards, and 1 TD. Seeing that CINCI is allowing the most TD’s per game (1.7) to WR’s this year, and is 7th worst in passing yards per game, and the fact that Young is on a roll, Gage may have a chance to reach 100 yards receiving in a game for the first time since Week 13 of his rookie year back in 2003…
Prediction: 6 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD.
Bench: Kenny Watson/Rudi Johnson, CIN – What a mess the RB situation has become in CINCI… The past 3 years, Rudi has been an absolute rock. After suffering an injury earlier in the year, Watson stepped in for Rudi and performed honorably. Now Marvin Lewis can’t decide which guy should be starter. As a result, both players have suffered. And this week they face a TENN defense that is 4th best in terms of rushing yards allowed per game vs. RB’s (77.5). Unless you have no other option, I wouldn’t bother starting either of these guys this week... Prediction: Less than 90 yards rushing combined, 0 TD’s.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Start: David Garrard, JAX – In this week’s rankings column, I wrote about how amazingly consistent Jeff Garcia has been this year. But for a guy that wasn’t even supposed to start this year, Garrard was just as good prior to getting injured in Week 7 against INDY. Not including that game, he has scored 14/16/13/12/18/15. He has some tough matchups after this week, but is a very favorable start against the Bills this week…
Prediction: 219 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 0 INT’s.
Bench: Anthony Thomas, BUF – After allowing a staggering 282 yards rushing in a Week 1 loss to TENN, the Jags have only allowed 721 yards on the ground in the last 9 games, or about 80 per game. The Jags will likely have control of this game, limiting the number of touches Thomas gets. 60 yards on the ground would exceed my expectations for him this week...
Prediction: 14 carries, 50 yards, 2 catches, 11 yards, 0 TD’s.
Oakland at Kansas City
Start: Justin Fargas, OAK – In terms of Yards from Scrimmage, Fargas has 97, 119, 104, and 89 in his past 4 games. And seeing that Jordan probably won’t be playing another game for the Raiders, and Michael Bush won’t be seeing any action this year, it’s down to Fargas and Dominic Rhodes, who has 3 carries for 3 yards this month. Needless to say, expect Fargas to get at least 18-22 touches per game the rest of the year. And because he has strong pass catching skills, he should be helpful even if the Raiders are losing…
Prediction: 19 carries, 74 yards rushing, 3 catches, 22 yards receiving, 0 TD’s.
Bench: Tony Gonzalez, KC – As I mentioned earlier this week, OAK has only allowed 1 TD to TE’s for the year. And in his past 2 games, Gonzalez has a total of 7 catches for 75 yards, or around his per game averages when Huard was QB. It wouldn’t surprise me if he performed a little bit better this week, but right now I have no trust in Croyle getting the ball to him… Prediction: 5 catches, 62 yards, 0 TD’s.
Washington at Tampa Bay
Start: Jeff Garcia, TB – I really wanted to put Earnest Graham here again, but he’s nearing must-start status every week in most leagues, and should have another nice game. Instead I’ll go with Mr. Consistency, who should have around 14 points again this week. The guy just doesn’t make mistakes either; take out the abnormally bad performance against the Jags in Week 9, and his TD/INT ratio is 10/0. Zero INT’s!
Prediction: 220 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 0 INT’s.
Bench: Jason Campbell, WAS – The only reason Campbell cracked my top 20 this week was because of his performance in the previous two games. Tampa has been outstanding in defending the pass this year, allowing only 7 TD’s this year, along with a miniscule 5.98 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the NFL. Campbell is going to have a tough time picking up yards this week, in what should be a low-scoring snorefest…
Prediction: 174 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Start: Drew Brees, NO - Brees has not done that well the last two weeks after playing at a high level over the previous four games. Brees has also struggled against Carolina in his career with just one touchdown in 112 pass attempts. With all of that said, THIMD has a good feeling this week about Brees. Look for Reggie Bush to make a couple of plays in the running game, which will help open up the passing game.
Prediction: 275 yards with 2 TD’s.
Bench: DeShaun Foster, CAR - For being such an average running back, Foster sure gets the ball a lot. Foster does nothing with his opportunities, however, as evidenced by two important stats.
A) He does not score touchdowns (two this season and just nine in his career)
B) He does not make plays (long run of 13 yards over the last nine games).
The Saints actually defend the run fairly well so look for Foster to get his usual workload without big results.
Prediction: 18 carries for 70 yards.
Minnesota at New York Giants
Start: Eli Manning, NYG - Manning has been up and down this season, as been the case throughout his career, but this week he faces one of the worst pass defenses in football. The Giants’ key runners are banged up and the Vikings defend the run well anyway. Look for Manning to throw early and often and post his first multi-touchdown game since October 21. Prediction: 250 yards and 2-3 TD’s.
Bench: Chester Taylor, MIN - Taylor exploded last week against Oakland for 164 yards and three touchdowns, but that was against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. The Giants will be much tougher to run against and be geared up to stop Minnesota’s only threat on offense. Expect New York to shut down the running game and make Tarvaris Jackson beat them. Prediction: 15 carries for 65 yards.
Houston at Cleveland
Start: Matt Schaub, HOU - Schaub played well in last week’s win over New Orleans, throwing for 293 yards and recording his first multi-touchdown game since Week 2. Andre Johnson returned from a seven-game absence and scored on a bomb so things are looking up for the Texans offense. Facing a suspect Cleveland defense, Schaub should put up good numbers.
Prediction: 250 yards with 2 TD’s.
Bench: Jamal Lewis, CLE - Lewis had done okay this season with seven touchdowns, but four of them came in one game. Also, Lewis has not run well against Houston in his career with just 66 yards on 28 carries. Expect the Browns to get behind early and air it out with Derek Anderson and company.
Prediction: 16 carries for 60 yards.
San Francisco at Arizona
Start: Kurt Warner, ARI - Warner has been productive in nine career starts against the 49ers, averaging about two touchdowns per game. Plus, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have owned San Francisco over the last couple of years. Warner might have a turnover or two, as he is prone to do, but expect above average numbers.
Prediction: 250 yards with 2-3 TD’s and 1 INT.
Bench: EVERY offensive player on San Francisco - Unless you’re in a super deep league or own Frank Gore, there is really no reason to start any player on the 49ers. Even Gore is not an automatic play anymore though because his supporting cast is so awful. We would be very surprised if San Francisco scores more than two offensive touchdowns this week against a ball-hawking Cardinals’ defense.
Prediction: 230 net yards and 13 points scored as a team.
Denver at Chicago
Start: Jay Cutler, DEN - We’ve recommended Cutler a few times in this column and he’s played well most of those times. Cutler has always been talented, but he’s starting to find his groove and has a couple of nice weapons to work with in Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley and Tony Scheffler. Chicago’s pass defense has been below average this year so Cutler should post strong numbers.
Prediction: 225 yards with 2 TD’s.
Bench: Muhsin Muhammad, CHI - Muhammad is having a respectable year, averaging 15.6 yards per catch with three touchdowns. And the 34-year old Muhammad has actually been a big-play receiver this year too with four receptions of 30+ yards. But before you consider starting him, keep in mind that he is facing Denver’s strong cornerbacks. Rex Grossman is erratic too so you never know what you’re going to get from the Bears’ passing game when he is starting at quarterback.
Prediction: 4 receptions for 50 yards.
Baltimore at San Diego
Start: Matt Stover, BAL - Advising to start a kicker is kind of weak, but we expect this game to be a low-scoring affair. Stover made all three of his field goals last week, including one from 47 yards, and is 21-of-24 on attempts this season. Expect the Ravens to move the ball, but bog down in the red zone and leave things up to the reliable veteran.
Prediction: 2-3 field goals, including one from around 40 yards.
Bench: LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - Tomlinson’s numbers are way down from last season and previous years as well. Outside of a four-score game against the Raiders in October, Tomlinson does not have a multi-touchdown game. And he’s averaging a human-like 4.1 yards per carry this season with just two 100+ yards games. Baltimore’s rush defense is second in the league in yards allowed so look for Tomlinson to do his normal thing in the passing game, but not be much of a factor on the ground.
Prediction: 90 yards from scrimmage with 0 TD’s.
Philadelphia at New England
Start: Donte Stallworth, NE - Stallworth should have some extra motivation this week, facing his former team. The speedy Stallworth has not been as much of a fantasy force as Randy Moss or Wes Welker, but he’s still involved in the offense (5 catches for 56 yards and dropped a pass that would have gone for at least 30 yards last week).
Prediction: 4 catches for 80 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Kevin Curtis, PHI - Curtis has been inconsistent this season and not been a big scorer outside of this three-touchdown game against Detroit. With A.J. Feeley expected to start, do not expect much from the team’s leading wide receiver.
Prediction: 4 catches for 55 yards.
Miami at Pittsburgh
Start: Willie Parker, PIT - Normally Parker is a must start every week, but he has just two touchdowns this season and fantasy owners are getting worried. The Dolphins are last in the league in rushing yards allowed and Santonio Holmes (ankle) is expected to miss the game so Parker should get a lot of work and be productive. But also expect him to record his first touchdown since Week 8, possibly getting a couple of scores.
Prediction: 105 yards rushing and 1-2 TD’s.
Bench: Jesse Chatman, MIA - Chatman has been a pleasant surprise for the Dolphins this season, taking over for an injured Ronnie Brown. There are two things working against Chatman this week, however. A) Chatman is banged up with an ankle injury and won’t be 100 percent. B) Pittsburgh has one of the nastiest and most effective defenses in the league.
Prediction: 13 carries for 50 yards.
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