One of the problems I've encountered over the years is the notion that where a player is drafted is still relevant once the season starts. Eric Karabell touched on it a bit in his blog on 10/11, but being a bit of a numbers guy, I wanted to dig a little deeper. So I took the average draft position from ESPN.com for QB's, RB's, and WR's, and compared it to their actual rank in terms of scoring for this season thus far. I focused primarily on the top 12 QB's, and the top 24 RB's/WR's (#3 WR's are a bit of a crapshoot anyways).
The results are below, along with comments for each position (players in blue are those that have missed time due to injury).
| Quarterbacks | |||||||
| PLAYER | Draft | Now | Diff | PTS | |||
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 3 | -2 | 92 | |||
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 6 | -4 | 74 | |||
| Tom Brady | 3 | 1 | 2 | 111 | |||
| Drew Brees | 4 | 32 | -28 | 19 | |||
| Marc Bulger | 5 | 27 | -22 | 27 | |||
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 17 | -11 | 51 | |||
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7 | 10 | -3 | 61 | |||
| Vince Young | 8 | 22 | -14 | 41 | |||
| Philip Rivers | 9 | 11 | -2 | 60 | |||
| Tony Romo | 10 | 2 | 8 | 110 | |||
| Matt Leinart | 11 | 27 | -16 | 27 | |||
| Eli Manning | 12 | 9 | 3 | 64 |
Notes:
Before the season started, everyone talked about the big drop-off after the top 6 (Manning/Palmer/Brady/Brees/Bulger/McNabb). After 5 weeks of play, only 3 are in the top 12 in terms of scoring, and only 7 of the top 12 (58%) can be considered a solid #1. Brees has less points on the season than 7 QB's that weren't even ranked in the top 30, and has become borderline droppable in all leagues, although you probably won't find too many GM's that have done so, primarily due to the fact that they drafted him so high.
Other:
Two QB's that made big jumps into the top 12 were Brett Favre (16th Preseason, 4th in scoring), and Matt Schaub (26th Preseason, 12th in scoring). In addition, Derek Anderson went from Unranked to #5 overall in points.
| Running Backs | |||||||||
| PLAYER | Draft | Now | Diff | PTS | |||||
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 3 | -2 | 71 | |||||
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 46 | -44 | 22 | |||||
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 24 | -21 | 35 | |||||
| Frank Gore | 4 | 15 | -11 | 53 | |||||
| Shaun Alexander | 5 | 16 | -11 | 49 | |||||
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 2 | 4 | 73 | |||||
| Willie Parker | 7 | 14 | -7 | 54 | |||||
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 5 | 3 | 67 | |||||
| Rudi Johnson | 9 | 34 | -25 | 28 | |||||
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 24 | -14 | 35 | |||||
| Laurence Maroney | 11 | 38 | -27 | 24 | |||||
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 9 | 3 | 61 | |||||
| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 1 | 12 | 99 | |||||
| Travis Henry | 14 | 12 | 2 | 57 | |||||
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 35 | -20 | 26 | |||||
| Deuce McAllister | 16 | 78 | -62 | 5 | |||||
| Cedric Benson | 17 | 21 | -4 | 40 | |||||
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 27 | -9 | 32 | |||||
| Clinton Portis | 19 | 18 | 1 | 48 | |||||
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 6 | 14 | 64 | |||||
| Marion Barber III | 21 | 4 | 17 | 70 | |||||
| Brandon Jacobs | 22 | 53 | -31 | 16 | |||||
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 11 | 12 | 58 | |||||
| Ahman Green | 24 | 42 | -18 | 23 |
Notes:
Just to confirm the ridiculous number of injuries at RB this season, only 4 of the top 12 RB's drafted are in the top 12 in scoring this year, which is pretty staggering, not to mention very disappointing seasons from guys like Reggie Bush, MJD, and Thomas Jones. Ronnie Brown just missed the top 12, but no one expected him to perform the way he has thus far, especially considering that the Dolphins may be the worst team in football.
Other:
Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan, and Deshaun Foster were all ranked outside the top 24 before the season, and all 3 are in the top 20 after the first 5 weeks, with Peterson and Jordan in the top 10. Despite the fact that
There were also 5 guys not ranked in the top 50 that are now in the top 24, all of which were backups to start the season, including Najeh "I Poop In Closets and Beat Women In Public" Davenport, Derrick Ward, Sammy Morris, Kenton Keith, and DeShawn Wynn. These guys should be owned in all leagues, although Keith is nothing more than an essential handcuff to Addai, and Morris's playing time may be cut with the return of Laurence Maroney.
| Wide Receiver | |||||||
| PLAYER | Draft | Now | Diff | PTS | |||
| Steve Smith | 1 | 5 | -4 | 64 | |||
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 41 | -39 | 27 | |||
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 4 | -1 | 65 | |||
| Torry Holt | 4 | 11 | -7 | 51 | |||
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 7 | -2 | 57 | |||
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | -3 | 54 | |||
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 17 | -10 | 45 | |||
| Marques Colston | 8 | 43 | -35 | 26 | |||
| Roy Williams | 9 | 7 | 2 | 57 | |||
| Randy Moss | 10 | 1 | 9 | 95 | |||
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 11 | 6 | 5 | 63 | |||
| Lee Evans | 12 | 85 | -73 | 9 | |||
| Donald Driver | 13 | 15 | -2 | 47 | |||
| Javon Walker | 14 | 49 | -35 | 22 | |||
| Anquan Boldin | 15 | 15 | 0 | 47 | |||
| Andre Johnson | 16 | 21 | -5 | 42 | |||
| Plaxico Burress | 17 | 2 | 15 | 81 | |||
| Hines Ward | 18 | 63 | -45 | 16 | |||
| Darrell Jackson | 19 | 58 | -39 | 18 | |||
| Santana Moss | 20 | 58 | -38 | 18 | |||
| Laveranues Coles | 21 | 11 | 10 | 51 | |||
| Joey Galloway | 22 | 22 | 0 | 41 | |||
| Reggie Brown | 23 | 102 | -79 | 6 | |||
| Deion Branch | 24 | 25 | -1 | 39 |
Notes:
I was a bit surprised to see that the most consistency was found at WR. 8 of the top 12 (67%) players drafted are still in the top 12 this year, which is a welcome sight given the inconsistencies at QB/RB. Colston has been a huge disappointment, which isn't a surprise, given the performance by Brees thus far. Evans and Brown shouldn't even be owned at this point, although both guys haven't been dropped in the league I run just yet… On the plus side, Laveranues Coles is one of those guys that everyone knows about, but never really gets the respect he deserves in Fantasy. He's having a huge year despite the fact that he has a terrible QB throwing to him.
Other:
Two of the biggest surprises this season is the breakout year by Braylon Edwards, who was valued as a late #2/early #3 preseason, but is currently 3rd in points, and Brandon Marshall, who has moved up 29 spots from his preseason rank of 46th to becoming a solid #2 WR in all leagues.
Finally, 3 guys that came out of nowhere to become legitimate starters are Dwayne Bowe (9th), Patrick Crayton (13th), & Shaun McDonald (17th). Bill Simmons echoed my thoughts about Bowe in a story last week in that for anyone that watched "Hard Knocks” on HBO, he looked like a deer in headlights; missed the beginning of camp because he signed late, dropped a lot of balls in practice, and didn't seem to be all that bright, despite "majoring" in Education at LSU. But the ineffectiveness of LJ early on forced the Chiefs to throw the ball more, and he has stepped up in a major way.
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