Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Greg's Week 9 Rankings

Tough week for a lot of fantasy's top RB's, with LT at probably the lowest you'll ever see him. Granted it's only 4th, but any week he is not in the top 3 is a surprise... Not as many big fantasy losses with this week's bye teams (Rams, Giants, Dolphins, & Bears) as last week, and only 1 more week until we're through all of the byes (and dare I say it, the stretch run for teams trying to get into the playoffs)... As usual, ranking for all positions are below, along with a few comments at each position.

QUARTERBACK
1 Tom Brady NE (at IND)
2 Peyton Manning IND (vs NE)
3 Tony Romo DAL (at PHI)
4 Carson Palmer CIN (at BUF)
5 Brett Favre GB (at KC)
6 Matt Hasselbeck SEA (at CLE)
7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT (vs BAL)
8 Donovan McNabb PHI (vs DAL)
9 Philip Rivers SD (at MIN)
10 Jeff Garcia TB (vs ARI)
11 Jay Cutler DEN (at DET)
12 Derek Anderson CLE (vs SEA)
13 Drew Brees NO (vs JAC)
14 Jon Kitna DET (vs DEN)
15 Jason Campbell WAS (at NYJ)
16 Kurt Warner ARI (at TB)
17 J.P. Losman BUF (vs CIN)
18 Damon Huard KC (vs GB)
19 Joey Harrington ATL (vs SF)
20 Alex Smith SF (at ATL)

Notes:
Anyone know what the over/under is on combined TD's for Brady/Manning? 7? 8? Could be the most watched regular season game in history... I know Derek Anderson has been ridiculously solid all year, but something tells me he doesn't fare that well against the Seahawks, who have only allowed 5 passing TD's all year... On the flip side, the Browns have allowed a whopping 18 passing TD's, making Hass a great matchup this week... I also like Rivers' matchup against the Vikes this week. He may be forced to throw the ball more because of their rush defense, but another 2-3 TD's is highly likely... And my sleeper QB pick of the week is none other than J.P. Losman, who faces a terrible Cincinnati secondary. 250 yards and 1-2 TD's is entirely possible...

RUNNING BACK
1 Brian Westbrook PHI (vs DAL)
2 Joseph Addai IND (vs NE)
3 Adrian Peterson MIN (vs SD)
4 LaDainian Tomlinson SD (at MIN)
5 Willie Parker PIT (vs BAL)
6 Kevin Jones DET (vs DEN)
7 Edgerrin James ARI (at TB)
8 Larry Johnson KC (vs GB)
9 Reggie Bush NO (vs JAC)
10 Willis McGahee BAL (at PIT)
11 Clinton Portis WAS (at NYJ)
12 Marshawn Lynch BUF (vs CIN)
13 Frank Gore SF (at ATL)
14 Selvin Young DEN (at DET)
15 LenDale White TEN (vs CAR)
16 Thomas Jones NYJ (vs WAS)
17 Shaun Alexander SEA (at CLE)
18 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC (at NO)
19 Rudi Johnson CIN (at BUF)
20 Marion Barber DAL (at PHI)
21 LaMont Jordan OAK (vs HOU)
22 Laurence Maroney NE (at IND)
23 DeShaun Foster CAR (at TEN)
24 Jamal Lewis CLE (vs SEA)
25 Earnest Graham TB (vs ARI)
26 Ryan Grant GB (at KC)
27 Kenton Keith IND (vs NE)
28 Jerious Norwood ATL (vs SF)
29 DeAngelo Williams CAR (at TEN)
30 Julius Jones DAL (at PHI)
31 Fred Taylor JAC (at NO)
32 Justin Fargas OAK (vs HOU)
33 Kevin Faulk NE (at IND)
34 A. Echemandu HOU (at OAK)
35 Michael Bennett TB (vs ARI)
36 Warrick Dunn ATL (vs SF)
37 Chris Henry TEN (vs CAR)
38 Ron Dayne HOU (at OAK)
39 Najeh Davenport PIT (vs BAL)
40 Chester Taylor MIN (vs SD)

Notes:
I left Kenny Watson off the list, as it doesn't appear that he'll be playing this week. As I mentioned earlier, a lot of really tough matchups for the top RB's this week, especially LT/Parker/McGahee, who face 3 defenses that have allowed a TOTAL of 5 Rushing TD's combined this year as well as less than 80 yards rushing per game. Now obviously you wouldn't bench any of these guys, and 1 of the 3 is bound to have a good game, but I'd temper my expectations for all of them... Tremendous matchup for Kevin Jones, who faces a Denver defense on a short week that has allowed a staggering 166 yards on the ground per game. Don't be surprised if Jones gets 30 touches this week... Watch for injury updates in both SF and DEN, as both Gore and Young would be bumped up a few notches each if they are confirmed starters for this week... Like Gusto, I'm not totally sold on Ryan Grant. KC's rush defense isn't actually that bad, allowing only 16.6 fantasy points per game against RB's...

WIDE RECEIVER
1 Randy Moss NE (at IND)
2 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN (at BUF)
3 Chad Johnson CIN (at BUF)
4 Reggie Wayne IND (vs NE)
5 Braylon Edwards CLE (vs SEA)
6 Terrell Owens DAL (at PHI)
7 Steve Smith CAR (at TEN)
8 Marvin Harrison IND (vs NE)
9 Wes Welker NE (at IND)
10 Roy Williams DET (vs DEN)
11 Larry Fitzgerald ARI (at TB)
12 Donald Driver GB (at KC)
13 Brandon Marshall DEN (at DET)
14 Joey Galloway TB (vs ARI)
15 Laveranues Coles NYJ (vs WAS)
16 Anquan Boldin ARI (at TB)
17 Roddy White ATL (vs SF)
18 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ (vs WAS)
19 Marques Colston NO (vs JAC)
20 Chris Chambers SD (at MIN)
21 Santonio Holmes PIT (vs BAL)
22 Bobby Engram SEA (at CLE)
23 Deion Branch SEA (at CLE)
24 Lee Evans BUF (vs CIN)
25 Derrick Mason BAL (at PIT)
26 Dwayne Bowe KC (vs GB)
27 Kevin Curtis PHI (vs DAL)
28 Hines Ward PIT (vs BAL)
29 Brandon Stokley DEN (at DET)
30 Patrick Crayton DAL (at PHI)
31 Ronald Curry OAK (vs HOU)
32 Kevin Walter HOU (at OAK)
33 Ike Hilliard TB (vs ARI)
34 Reggie Brown PHI (vs DAL)
35 Donte' Stallworth NE (at IND)
36 Greg Jennings GB (at KC)
37 Antwaan Randle El WAS (at NYJ)
38 David Patten NO (vs JAC)
39 Calvin Johnson DET (vs DEN)
40 James Jones GB (at KC)

Notes:
Even though the Colts have the top ranked pass defense in terms of yards per game, I just can't see them stopping Moss/Welker from putting up big games again this week. The same goes for Wayne/Harrison. I don't know what the Over/Under line is for the game, but unless it is 60+, it's a "lock of the year" to take the Over...
Obviously Roy Williams has a tough matchup against the Broncos, but one surprising fact is that as good as their secondary is, they are allowing the most yards per attempt in the NFL. So while Williams may not catch 7-8 passes, the 4-5 he does catch may result in enough yardage to make him a solid play (especially if he scores a TD as well)... On the other hand, I don't like any of the other Lions receivers this week, which is why the only other one I have ranked in the top 40 is Megatron... I
have to pass along the fact that Gusto has an enormous man-crush on Brandon Marshall, and I do like him this week against the still-terrible Lions defense, allowing just under 27 completions per game. In all honesty, I could hear drool dripping onto the phone when Don was professing his love for Marshall earlier in the week. Don, all you need is a scar running down the front of your face, and you can be "the white Omar"... Finally, I like Lee Evans to have one of his vintage 2nd half of 2006-type games against Cincy this week, with another long TD...

TIGHT END
1 Antonio Gates SD (at MIN)
2 Tony Gonzalez KC (vs GB)
3 Jason Witten DAL (at PHI)
4 Dallas Clark IND (vs NE)
5 Heath Miller PIT (vs BAL)
6 Kellen Winslow CLE (vs SEA)
7 Vernon Davis SF (at ATL)
8 Chris Cooley WAS (at NYJ)
9 Jeff King CAR (at TEN)
10 Donald Lee GB (at KC)
11 Tony Scheffler DEN (at DET)
12 Todd Heap BAL (at PIT)
13 Alge Crumpler ATL (vs SF)
14 Eric Johnson NO (vs JAC)
15 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN (vs SD)
15 Zach Miller OAK (at HOU)
16 Bo Scaife TEN (vs CAR)
17 L.J. Smith PHI (vs DAL)
18 Chris Baker NYJ (vs WAS)
20 Kyle Brady NE (at IND)

Notes:
Gates may put up better #'s than most WR's this week in an extreeeemely favorable matchup against the Vikes. Another multiple TD game is very likely... Ranked a close 2nd is Tony Gonzalez, who faces a GB defense that is one of two teams that allow double digits in fantasy points to TE's this year (Denver is the other). Both of these guys are in line for big weeks... Yes, Vernon Davis definitely shut me up a bit last week, although I still think he is highly overrated. Nonetheless, he has a favorable matchup in Week 9 against the Falcons... And finally, THIMB favorite Tony Scheffler has a nice matchup against the Lions, and another TD this week might push him into the Top 10 very shortly...

KICKER
1 Stephen Gostkowski NE (at IND)
2 Adam Vinatieri IND (vs NE)
3 Nicholas Folk DAL (at PHI)
4 Matt Stover BAL (at PIT)
5 Kris Brown HOU (at OAK)
6 David Akers PHI (vs DAL)
7 Josh Brown SEA (at CLE)
8 Phil Dawson CLE (vs SEA)
9 Rob Bironas TEN (vs CAR)
10 Shayne Graham CIN (at BUF)
11 Jason Elam DEN (at DET)
12 Jason Hanson DET (vs DEN)
13 Mason Crosby GB (at KC)
14 Jeff Reed PIT (vs BAL)
15 Matt Bryant TB (vs ARI)
16 Nate Kaeding SD (at MIN)
17 Neil Rackers ARI (at TB)
18 Morten Andersen ATL (vs SF)
19 Ryan Longwell MIN (vs SD)
20 John Kasay CAR (at TEN)

DEFENSE
1 DST Chargers SD (at MIN)
2 DST Seahawks SEA (at CLE)
3 DST Vikings MIN (vs SD)
4 DST Steelers PIT (vs BAL)
5 DST Titans TEN (vs CAR)
6 DST Texans HOU (at OAK)
7 DST Redskins WAS (at NYJ)
8 DST Lions DET (vs DEN)
9 DST Patriots NE (at IND)
10 DST Cowboys DAL (at PHI)
11 DST Bills BUF (vs CIN)
12 DST Bengals CIN (at BUF)
13 DST Ravens BAL (at PIT)
14 DST Raiders OAK (vs HOU)
15 DST Falcons ATL (vs SF)
16 DST Buccaneers TB (vs ARI)
17 DST Colts IND (vs NE)
18 DST Chiefs KC (vs GB)
19 DST Jaguars JAC (at NO)
20 DST Packers GB (at KC)

As always, comments are welcome!

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