Indianapolis at Carolina
Start: DeAngelo Williams, CAR - With DeShaun Foster surprisingly missing practice on Wednesay, Williams would be in line for a big game against the Colts on Sunday. Look for the Panthers to try to establish the run early in order to keep Peyton & Co. off the field as much as possible. And with the Colts ranked only 21st in YPC (4.2), Williams would be my sleeper of the week if Foster is inactive...
Prediction: 24 Carries, 102 yards, 0 TD's.
Bench: Dallas Clark, INDY - I am going to look pretty foolish if Clark has another strong performance, but as mentioned in my rankings, Carolina is extremely stingy against TE's this year, and with Harrison seemingly healthy again, I don't see Clark getting as many looks as he has thus far...
Prediction: 4 catches, 32 yards, 0 TD's.
Detroit at Chicago
Start: Mushin Muhammed/Bernard Berrian, CHI - I know, I'm taking the easy way out here. Muhammed has shown signs of life with Griese at QB, and Berrian has been decent all year. I like both guys to put up big games against the woeful Detroit pass defense this week...
Prediction: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD for Berrian, and 4 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD for Muhammed.
Bench: All Detroit WR's - Kitna owners are beginning to see that with Kevin Jones back and healthy, the game plan for the Detroit offense is shifting more towards a run-based attack. And when they do pass, it is usually a dump off to Jones; last week, Kitna completed 16 passes total, 6 of which went to Jones. Chicago's run defense is allowing over 130 yards a game, and I see the Lions running the ball as much as possible this week, so temper any expectations for Detroit WR's.
Prediction: 1 TD, no receiver with more than 4 cat ches...
Cleveland at St. Louis
Start: Marc Bulger, STL - Bulger, as well as the entire Rams team, have been utter disappointments this season. But with SJax back this week, Bruce healthy again, and Bulger back at full strength, I like the Rams of old to make a reappearance at home this week against a Cleveland defense that ranks last in the league in Total Yards per game (418.8). If the Rams don't put up big numbers this week, it's safe to jump ship on all of them...
Prediction: 315 yards passing, 3 TD's, 1 INT.
Bench: Jason Wright, CLE- Provided that gimpy Jamal Lewis is out again this week, Wright would get another start at RB. Two reasons why I wouldn't start him this week:
1. This game has all the makings of a shootout, which would limit his attempts.
2. It sounds as if Jerome Harrison will get a handful of carries as well, also limiting his attempts.
Wright is a decent receiver out of the backfield, so he'd be an okay option in a PPR league. But in non-PPR leagues, I'd sit him...
Prediction: 14 carries, 42 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Pittsburgh at Cincinatti
Start: Heath Miller, PITT- This matchup looks like another shootout, and with Pittsburgh likely to have a lot of red zone opportunties, look for Miller to catch more TD's this week. I wouldn't be surprised if he duplicated his numbers from last week...
Prediction: 5 catches, 50 yards, 2 TD's.
Bench: Kenny Watson, CIN- I don't think Watson will be awful this week, but after a monster game last week against the Jets, expectations are high for Cinci's new #1. Pittsburgh's run defense has been terrific this year, but Palmer will be able to spread the field enough that Watson will put up okay yardage #'s. And considering how many teams are on a bye this week, you might have to start him anyways...
Prediction: 17 carries, 65 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
New York Giants at Miami (via London)
Start: Brandon Jacobs, NYG- 2nd week in a row that Jacobs has worked his way onto the "Start" list... I still feel like owners are a little gun shy with him due to injuries, Derrick Ward, and even Reuben Droughns. But if Jacobs gets the start this week (check for injury updates on Sunday), I can see him having a career week against the hapless Dolphins.
Prediction: 24 carries, 130 yards rushing, 2 catches, 17 yards receiving, 2 TD's.
Bench: Jesse Chatman, MIA- Gusto and I debated Chatman's merits at length already, so I don't have anything more to add, other than the fact that Miami is going to be so far behind in this game that the only way Chatman is going to get yards is by catching passes. And considering that he has 21 receptions in his career (48 games), I don't see that happening either...
Prediction: 14 carries 40 yards rushing, 1 catch, 7 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Oakland at Tennessee
Start: Ronald Curry, OAK - Tennessee has been very strong against the run this year, allowing under 60 rushing yards per game. This will force the Raiders to throw more often than usual, and if Daunte has anything left in him, look for Curry to catch a couple of long passes this week.
Prediction: 5 catches for 80 yards & a TD.
Bench: Vince Young, TENN - Young returns to face a Raiders secondary that ranks 11th in the NFL in yards per game, and 7th in receptions allowed per game (18.7). Because their run defense is so poor, look for Tennesse to pound the ball with LenDale White as much as possible, which will limit the number of attempts for VY. If Young punches one in himself this week, he may have more points rushing than passing...
Prediction: 150 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT's, 30 yards rushing, 0 TD's.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Start: Kevin Curtis, PHI - As noted in my rankings column, although I'm not a big Curtis fan (too many ups and downs week to week), the Vikings' pass defense is horrifically bad, and McNabb is going to have a field day with them. In leagues that reward long TD's, Curtis may be the start of the week, as he is likely to have another 50+ yard TD, if not two...
Prediction: 6 catches, 150 yards, 2 TD's.
Bench: Chester Taylor, MINN - This one was by process of elimination. Besides Adrian Peterson, Minnesota may have the worst fantasy team in the NFL! Their QB is horrible, which makes the WR/TE's unownable as well. Taylor is still splitting carries with Peterson, but something tells me Philly blows them out this week, which will cut down the # of carries even further...
Prediction: 9 carries, 32 yards rushing, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving, 0 TD's.
Buffalo at NY Jets
Start: Lee Evans, BUF
As documented this week, THIMD is high on Evans for the second half of the season and Sunday’s opponent is a favorable matchup for him. The speedy Evans has not scored this year, but should this week against a Jets’ pass defense that allows 240 yards per game and has given up 11 touchdowns for the season.
Prediction: 5 catches for 80 yards with a touchdown.
Bench: Chad Pennington, NYJ
Pennington will start again this week despite his season-long shaky play. Pennington did okay last week at Cincinnati, but made a couple of crucial mistakes, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown in the final minute of a close game. Pennington could post decent numbers against a poor Bills secondary, but he is just as likely to get pulled for Kellen Clemens, who has become a fan/media favorite in New York.
Prediction: 220 yards with 1 TD and 2-3 INT's.
Washington at New England
Start: Laurence Maroney, NE
Even though the Redskins have a good rush defense, Maroney is long overdue for a big game. Maroney was not listed on this week’s injury report, a sign that he might be completely over the groin injury that forced him to miss three games. He did play last week at Miami, but wasn’t needed much because Tom Brady continued his mind-boggling pace. With Sammy Morris (chest) not expected to play, count on Maroney shouldering the load and playing well.
Prediction: 100 yards from scrimmage and at least 1 TD. Bench: Clinton Portis, WAS
Portis scored two touchdowns last week, but don’t be fooled – he’s not running the ball well right now. Portis’ long run of the season is only 19 yards and he has 38 carries for 107 yards (2.8 avg.) over the last two games. The Redskins have some offensive line injuries and the passing game is struggling so that has hindered Portis as well. New England has a very strong rush defense and if the game gets out of hand, as been the case with every Patriots’ game this season, Portis will struggle to produce.
Prediction: 60 yards rushing and 0 TD's.
Houston at San Diego
Start: Philip Rivers, SD
Rivers is not a great quarterback, but he has some serious weapons to work with and Houston’s pass defense is below average. Chris Chambers was acquired via trade during the team’s bye week and while he is probably a little overrated, he does have speed and this will help open up Antonio Gates in the middle of the field. Look for Rivers to make a couple of big plays to LT and company.
Prediction: 250 yards with 2-3 TD's.
Bench: Ahman Green, HOU
There are so many reasons to not like Green this week. The most obvious being he is old and slow. The other being San Diego’s seventh-ranked rush defense. Finally, this game could easily turn into a blowout, which will limit the number of opportunities for Green. Stay away from Green unless your options are players like Justin Fargas or Aaron Stecker.
Prediction: 40 yards rushing and 0 TD's.
New Orleans at San Francisco
Start: Drew Brees, NO
Brees has put together two straight fantasy-friendly games, both wins by New Orleans, and appears to have shaken off his poor play from earlier in the season. Reggie Bush has been running the ball better lately too, which has helped open things up for the entire offense. Marques Colston does not seem to be 100 percent with a back injury, but Brees has done a good job spreading the ball around lately so Colston is only a minor concern. Even though the 49ers’ secondary is solid, Brees should be productive enough to start.
Prediction: 220 yards with 2 TD's and 0 INT's.
Bench: Darrell Jackson, SF
Jackson’s numbers have been very bad this season, especially over the last two games. DJax has just two catches for six yards in each of the last two games. He did manage to grab a short touchdown last week, his first of the season, but that came with 16 seconds left in a blowout loss to the Giants. The Saints defense has played better recently and with San Francisco not getting strong quarterback play, it’s hard to envision Jackson catching more than a few passes.
Prediction: 3 catches for 35 yards.
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Start: Ike Hilliard, TB
Surprisingly, it’s time to hop on the Ike Hilliard bandwagon. Hilliard’s career has been a disappointment since being selected seventh overall in the 1997 draft. However, he is playing his best ball in years with four consecutive productive games. With the steady Jeff Garcia at quarterback, Hilliard is getting plenty of catches and yards, although Hilliard might not be your guy in touchdown heavy leagues. Despite the fact that Jacksonville has a strong defense, expect another solid game in terms of receptions and yards.
Prediction: 5-6 receptions for 80 yards.
Bench: Dennis Northcutt, JAX
Northcutt is Jacksonville’s leading receiver this year, but that is not saying much. Northcutt, who has only one touchdown, has not recorded more than 75 yards or five catches in any game this season. With an inexperienced Quinn Gray starting this week against a pretty tough defensive unit, things do not look good for the Jags passing game.
Prediction: 3 catches for 45 yards.
Green Bay at Denver
Start: Tony Scheffler, DEN
Scheffler is another guy that THIMD is high on after he caught five passes for 50 yards with a touchdown in last week’s win over Pittsburgh. Scheffler is one of the most talented receiving tight ends you’ve never heard about and has developed a nice rapport with Jay Cutler (they entered the league together as rookies in 2006). Scheffler appeared to injure his leg last week, but practiced on Wednesday. Check to see if he practices on Friday, always an indicator if someone will play or not.
Prediction: 4-5 catches for 55 yards with 1 TD.
Bench: Green Bay’s running backs
DeShawn Wynn, Vernand Morency, Brandon Jackson and Ryan Grant have been the worst quartet of running backs in the NFL this season. All four have been injured at some point and don’t bring much to the table anyway. Morency is probably the most talented of the bunch, but he can’t stay healthy and doesn’t have a great instincts. Wynn has been fairly productive, scoring four touchdowns, so start him if you have to choose a guy on a team that is pass heavy to begin with.
Prediction: Combined 65 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving and 0 TD's.
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