Monday, October 15, 2007

FFL Upgrades/Downgrades - Week 6

Below is a list of player upgrades and downgrades following Week 6 of the NFL season (excluding the NYG-ATL Monday Night Game).

FYI - These players fall into different types of categories (superstars, veterans, under-the-radar, rookies, etc.)

UPGRADES

QUARTERBACKS
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DREW BREES – Brees was finally able to get into a rhythm in Sunday’s 28-17 win at Seattle, finishing with 246 yards and two touchdowns. More importantly Brees protected the ball, not throwing an interception in a game for the first time this season. Reggie Bush appears to be in a groove running the ball (97 yards rushing), which helped open things up for Brees. While Brees may have turned the corner, there are still a couple of troubling signs with the offense. The Saints do not have a power running back to control the clock after Deuce McAllister’s season-ending injury and Marques Colston’s play has been suspect through the first six weeks. Furthermore, Devery Henderson, the team’s lone deep threat, has struggled with drops and rookie first round pick Robert Meachem has not even suited up yet this season. Brees has done a good job spreading the ball around in the past so he has the potential to succeed despite throwing to unknown players like Lance Moore, who made his first career start on Sunday.

CLEO LEMON
– It’s tough to upgrade a quarterback on such an awful team, but Lemon had a productive fantasy game and made some nice plays in Sunday’s 41-34 loss at Cleveland. Lemon showed a lot of mobility, running in two touchdowns and throwing for 256 yards with a pair of scores. Lemon has some weapons to work with in the likes of Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers and the Dolphins will be playing from behind quite a bit, which will help Lemon put up some garbage stats. The problem is that Lemon is inexperienced and will make lots of mistakes (two interceptions on Sunday). Also, rookie John Beck is considered the quarterback of the future by many in the organization and will probably play at some point this season if Miami continues to struggle.

TIM RATTAY – Kurt Warner suffered an elbow injury on Sunday and will miss this week’s game at Washington and possibly longer. Rattay is not a great quarterback by any means, but has a pair of talented wide receivers in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin (hip) has missed the last three games, but is expected to return in Week 7, providing a boost to the offense. The Cardinals will probably rely more on Edgerrin James and keep the play book simple for Rattay, but those in need of a quarterback for a bye or injury replacement could do worse.

RUNNING BACKS
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ADRIAN PETERSON– Peterson exploded for 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Sunday’s 34-31 upset win at Chicago. Peterson added a key 53-yard kickoff return late in the game that helped set up the game-winning field goal. He finished with 361 all-purpose yards, the third highest total in NFL history. Peterson’s blend of size, power and speed is more than unique and he has to be considered the front runner for Rookie of the Year. The negative on Peterson, which is not necessarily his fault, is coach Brad Childress’ fascination with using Chester Taylor on a regular basis. Mixing in Taylor to keep Peterson fresh makes sense to a certain degree, but then why have Peterson return kickoffs? The nature of a kickoff is chaotic and dangerous so a potential touchdown does not outweigh the risk of injury for fantasy owners.

MAURICE JONES-DREW – Jones-Drew is finally starting to justify his high draft status with another strong game in Sunday’s 37-17 win over Houston. Jones-Drew finished with 125 yards rushing and two touchdowns and added four receptions for a team-high 59 yards. Jones-Drew has averaged a whopping 9.9 yards per carry over the last two games and has seven receptions with three touchdowns over that period. Fred Taylor suffered a slight groin injury on Sunday, but is still in the mix for carries and the mobile David Garrard probably will steal a few goal line scores. So while Jones-Drew is headed in the right direction, it’s still not a perfect situation.

WIDE RECEIVERS
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WES WELKER – Welker had been quiet over the last two games, but posted a career-high 11 receptions for 124 yards with two touchdowns in Sunday’s 48-27 win at Dallas. Welker also had 92 yards in kickoff/punt returns, a boost to those in leagues that award points for return yardage. Because defenses focus so much attention on Randy Moss, Welker is sure to have a few more games like he had on Sunday. However, the fact that the Patriots have so many weapons will limit his opportunities in other games. The bottom line is that Tom Brady is a machine right now with 21 touchdown passes and Welker is one of his favorite targets. Keep an eye on Ben Watson’s apparent ankle injury (he left Sunday’s game). Welker would surely see a few more looks per game if the injury to Watson were of a significant nature.

PATRICK CRAYTON – Crayton struggled early in the season with drops and it looked like he might lose his starting job. But with another touchdown in Sunday’s 48-27 loss to New England, Crayton now has scored four times over the last three games. Crayton still does not get targeted as much as Terrell Owens or Jason Witten, but Tony Romo has done a good job spreading the ball around and Crayton is easily the third option in a pass-heavy offense. Crayton’s touchdown on Sunday came in the red zone so it appears that Romo has plenty confidence in him. If Crayton continues to play well it will not matter if Terry Glenn returns this season from a knee injury or not.

MARQUES HAGANS – Hagans, a converted quarterback from Virginia, caught a career-high five passes for 74 yards in Sunday’s 22-3 loss at Baltimore. Isaac Bruce (hamstring) missed his second straight game and Drew Bennett had to leave Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury of his own. With Torry Holt (knee) not 100 percent, Hagans is climbing up the depth chart. Hagans actually had to take a couple of snaps at the end of Sunday’s game because Gus Frerotte got knocked out. Marc Bulger is expected to return this week, but Hagans has value as a wide receiver and quarterback with the current state of the Rams.

REGGIE BROWN – Brown finally had a productive game, posting a season-high 89 yards in Sunday’s 16-9 victory over the Jets. Brown still has not scored this season, although he had a touchdown called back due to penalty in Philadelphia’s last game before its bye week. Donovan McNabb and Brown were very efficient working together on Sunday as Brown hauled in six of the seven passes thrown his way. Kevin Curtis had another big game on Sunday, but he is more of Philadelphia's deep threat. The Eagles talked about getting Brown more involved in the offense during their bye week and they stayed true to that on Sunday. Brown was dropped in many leagues after his early struggles so he might be someone to target on the waiver wire.

DAVID PATTEN – Patten helped the Saints pull off an upset at Seattle on Sunday with a season-high eight catches for 113 yards. More impressive was the fact that over a quarter of Drew Brees’ 36 pass attempts went in Patten’s direction (10 targets). Brees, who played his best game of the season and appears to be back on track, found Patten on both short and deep routes as the pair were comfortable together. Marques Colston was held to one catch for two yards and does not seem to be the player he was last year. Also, Devery Henderson has been a disappointment this season, failing to catch a pass on Sunday, and rookie Robert Meachem has been inactive for all five games. This means more opportunities for Patten, who could be headed for a productive second half.

DEVIN HESTER – Hester had another big game in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, returning a punt for an 89-yard touchdown. The bigger news is Hester caught an 81-yard touchdown from Brian Griese in the fourth quarter. Hester has just two catches this season, but he is too much of a playmaker to not get more offensive snaps as the season moves forward. At the very least, Hester is a serious threat to return a kick or punt for a touchdown each and every week.

TIGHT ENDS
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CHRIS COOLEY – Cooley recorded a season-high nine receptions for 105 yards with a touchdown in Sunday’s 17-14 loss at Green Bay. Cooley has been a consistent scorer this season with a touchdown in four straight games, but had been very quiet in terms of catches and yards heading into Sunday’s game against the Packers. Jason Campbell played better on Sunday than his numbers showed (the Redskins dropped six passes and his interception came off Santana Moss’ hands) and appears to have a solid rapport with Cooley. Moss has not had a good season and does not appear to be fully recovered from a groin injury while Antwaan Randle-El is too small to be used in the red zone. This means Cooley should continue to get a lot of looks from Campbell, especially deep in their opponent’s territory. With four touchdowns already, Cooley should not have much of a problem breaking his career high of seven set in 2005.

DOWNGRADES

QUARTERBACKS
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CHAD PENNINGTON – Pennington struggled yet again in Sunday’s 16-9 loss against Philadelphia, completing just 52 percent of his passes for 128 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Pennington’s arm strength, always a liability, is getting worse by the minute. Pennington simply cannot make plays anymore and it’s only a matter of time before Kellen Clemens, considered by many to be a franchise quarterback, takes over for good. Coach Eric Mangini said Pennington will start again this week against Cincinnati so this could be his last chance before the Clemens era officially begins.

MATT SCHAUB – Schaub looks to be a good quarterback, a big improvement over David Carr, but his stats are taking a hit because of all the injuries to Houston’s playmakers. Andre Johnson (knee) remains out and speedster Jacoby Jones (shoulder) is not yet 100 percent while the running game has been inconsistent with Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. Schaub appeared to be a world beater after the first two games, but he has struggled since with just two touchdown passes over the last four weeks. A healthy Andre Johnson would make a big difference, but his rehab has been going slow and it looks like he could be out for several more games. Until Johnson returns and/or the running game gets going, look for Schaub to post mediocre numbers.

RUNNING BACKS
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SHAUN ALEXANDER – How the mighty have fallen! Alexander, who is just two years removed from running for 1,880 yards and scoring 28 touchdowns, has been shaky the last two weeks with only 60 yards on 25 carries. Alexander was benched in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss to New Orleans, although Seattle trailed by double digits and was forced to air it. All the blame cannot be placed on Alexander, however, because the offensive line has struggled and the team’s best wide receivers (D.J. Hackett and Deion Branch) have been injured. The bottom line is that Alexander has been held without a touchdown since Week 2 and does not have the same burst he used to as evidenced by his season long run of just 22 yards. Hackett is expected back soon and Branch will return after the Week 8 bye week. That should help the offense, but we may have seen the last of a dominate Alexander.

CHRIS BROWN – Brown suffered an ankle injury in Sunday’s 13-10 loss at Tampa Bay. As a result LenDale White got 25 carries, although he only ran for 64 yards. Brown had rushed for 26 yards on five carries, but also lost a fumble before leaving the game. Considering Brown’s history of nagging injuries, this is not a good sign. White is nothing special, but he is a big, bruising back that can chew up the clock. If Brown misses any time, White could gain complete control of this dreaded running back by committee situation.

JUSTIN FARGAS – Fargas had just two carries for 10 yards in Sunday’s 28-14 loss at San Diego after exploding for 179 yards in Week 4. LaMont Jordan (back) was not expected to play on Sunday, but received most of the work with 18 carries. Dominic Rhodes also returned from a four-game suspension, although he did not carry the ball or make any catches. Coach Lane Kiffin wants to work Rhodes into the lineup slowly so Fargas’ value will take even more of a hit once Rhodes gets up to speed.

EARNEST GRAHAM
– Graham has not fared well in two games since Cadillac Williams suffered a serious knee injury. Graham ran for just 29 yards on 13 carries in Sunday’s 13-10 win over Tennessee, although he did chip in six catches for 17 yards. Graham is a stocky back that hits the hole quickly, but the problem is that he cannot make things happen on his own and has never been an every-down back. Maybe there is a reason that Graham had just 52 carries over his three-year career entering the 2007 campaign?

DESHAUN FOSTER – It only took six weeks for DeAngelo Williams to make a big play. Williams ripped off a 75-yard run and finished with 121 yards in Sunday’s win at Arizona while Foster had just 43 yards on 17 carries. Foster continues to start and has received most of the carries so far this season, but Williams is more explosive and protects the ball better (Foster has already fumbled four times this season with three lost). Foster is not someone that fantasy owners can drop or completely disregard, but do not be fooled by the fact that he starts each week.

WIDE RECEIVERS
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SANTANA MOSS – Moss had an awful game in Sunday’s 17-14 loss at Green Bay. Moss fumbled on an end around in the third quarter and the ball was scooped up for a momentum-swinging touchdown by Charles Woodson. Moss also failed to make a catch the entire game and had a pass deflect off his hands into the arms of a defender. Moss actually benched himself late in the game for his poor play and because of his lingering groin injury. Apparently Moss is not yet 100 percent and that is not a good thing for a player that relies so much on speed. The good news is that Jason Campbell has developed into a solid quarterback and throws a nice deep ball so Moss could definitely turn things around once healthy.

TORRY HOLT – Holt is one of the best wide receivers in football, but this looks like a bad season for him and the Rams. Orlando Pace, their best offensive lineman, is done for the season, Steven Jackson (groin) has not played since Week 3 and Marc Bulger (ribs) has missed the last two games. With the offense in turmoil, Holt has actually played fairly well up until Sunday’s loss at Baltimore in which he caught four passes for just 33 yards. The bigger concern for Holt owners is the status of his right knee, which he had surgery on in the off-season. Holt has experienced swelling in the knee as of late and is somewhat “gutting” it out every week. There is some speculation that Holt might even shut things down before the season ends.

DONALD DRIVER – Driver is the best receiver on a pass-heavy offense so it’s hard to downgrade someone like that and a player of his caliber. However, Driver has just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns through the first six games of the season. Brett Favre has a deep receiving corps this season with Greg Jennings, rookie James Jones and Ruvell Martin so he has not been forcing the ball to Driver as much as past years. Driver still has been productive this season with 36 receptions, but his average of 11.4 yards per catch is well below his career mark of 14.1 – a sign that he is not running as many deep routes and/or not as elusive as previous seasons.

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