This column is basically Gusto and I discussing some of our ranking differences for the current week via email. We hope to have this in Podcast format in the near future...
(Greg): Let's start with Quarterbacks. Overall, we only disagreed on 3 guys; Rivers (10th you, 20th me) Cutler (11th you, 19th me) Garcia (17th you, 9th me) 10th for Rivers? Seriously? That game is going to look like this: 1st Down: Handoff to LT 2nd Down: Handoff to LT 3rd Down: Screen Pass to LT for the 1st down... In the first 4 weeks, Rivers attempted over 30 passes a game. Then, after Norv realized that he had LT on his team, Rivers threw 18 and 21 passes the next two games. I can't see him throwing the ball more than 20 times max this week. No way he's a top 10 fantasy QB this week...
(Don): I think Rivers is an average quarterback, but there are a few reasons I ranked him #10. First, Rivers is playing against Houston, which is 20th in pass defense and made Kerry Collins and Roydell Williams look pretty good last week. Rivers has a new toy in Chris Chambers, which will help stretch the field, as well as open up the middle for Antonio Gates to work his magic. LT, Gates, Chambers and VJax are one of the most talented quartets in the NFL and probably could make you or I look good at quarterback. Rivers is at his best when the Chargers have the lead and he doesn't have to shoulder the load. He flourished in those type of situations last year. Coming off a bye week, I see the Chargers getting the lead early and Rivers making a couple of big plays. Put him down for about 250 yards and 2-3 TDs with no INT's. What's up with you having Jay Cutler at #19 below guys like Cleo Lemon and Sage Rosenfels/Matt Schaub? Cutler looked pretty good against a tough Steelers defense last week. And I don't think the Broncos will play with the lead much this year. Rosenfels is a clown and Schaub has two TD passes in the last five games. With a first name like Cleo, I don't have to say much about him. What gives with these controversial rankings?
(Greg): Good argument for Rivers, except that you forgot that Chambers is one of the most overrated wideouts in the NFL! Last year he was targeted 153 times, but only caught 59 passes? Horrific... Plus, he doesn't seem all that bright, which would make it tough for him to grasp the Bolts' playbook in 2 weeks (even with Norv as HC). I will be shocked if Rivers puts up those #'s... The reason I had Cutler so low is because the Packers have a very underrated pass defense, allowing just under 20 completions per game. And one solid game makes us quickly forget that he was on the Waiver Wire in most leagues going into the game, as he has been very mediocre all year, not to mention the fact that Marshall's status may be up in the air due to his DUI, and Henry's ribs are obviously still an issue, as he didn't practice on Wednesday... I had the great combo of Sage/Schaub ahead of Cutler simply due to the fact that they'll be so far behind early, it wouldn't surprise me to see them throw 40 passes on Sunday. My guess would be something like 250 yards passing, w/2 TD's & 2 INT's, which is more than what Cutler will have.... Moving onto RB's, I'll assume that ranking Jamal Lewis was a typo - 16th? He hasn't been ranked that high since Week 1 of the 2004 season! And I'm surprised to see your expectations being so low on SJax. Yeah, he'll be a bit limited in his first game back, but against Cleveland? Behind Maroney, Jesse "I'm no Ronnie Brown" Chatman, and career underachiever Cedric Benson? C'mon Gusto, I used to respect your opinion! By the way, Sox game starts in 20 minutes - prediction? I'm going to say 6-1 Sox....
(Don): Good point about Chambers' awful percentage last year. But I can counter that in two ways. First, the Dolphins had some awful QB's throwing to him last year so who's to say that a high number of the passes thrown his way were uncatchable by even Jerry Rice of 1987. Also, Chambers doesn't have to be a good receiver to stretch the field. He has good speed and defenses have to respect that, thus opening up the field for Gates. You're right about Cutler, he has been mediocre for most of the season and one game doesn't suddenly mean everything. And the Packers do have a strong pass defense with Al Harris and Charles Woodson. But Cutler is talented kid and has some weapons, even without Javon Walker. Brandon Marshall is a freak, and oh by the way he will play this week so don't worry about the DUI, Brandon Stokley is a solid possession receiver and Tony Scheffler is a great pass-catching tight end. Like I said, the Broncos aren't as good this season as some thought so they'll be playing from behind and I like Cutler this week and moving forward. I don't care how many times the Texans throw the ball on Sunday, Rosenfels/Schaub won't put up better numbers than Cutler. Especially if it's Rosenfels. His fourth-quarter garbage numbers won't happen again against a rested Chargers defensive unit. On to that felon Jamal Lewis. No doubt he is a shell of his former self, but I like him this week against a terrible St. Louis squad. They are tied for 2nd worst in rushing TD's allowed this year. Assuming Lewis is acutally healthy and plays the entire game, I see about 80 yards and a touchdown. I might have SJax too low, but how effective is this guy going to be in his first game back since tearing his groin? I've never played RB in the NFL, but I assume coming back from a serious groin injury will limit some things for SJax early on. I want to see him play a week before I rank him in the top 20. Plus, the Browns have only given up 3 rushing TD's all season, which is very good. Don't hate on Jesse Chatman, he is a solid runner. Very stocky with a low center of gravity. The Giants DEF is strong, but I think he'll do fine this week. Cedric Benson is a stiff, but did you see what Earnest Graham did against the Lions? They made him look like a hero. If Benson can't run against Detroit, I'm done with him. Maroney will bust out this week, mark my words. He's finally healthy and Tom Brady is due for an average game for him of 250 yards and three TD's. Why do you have Addai at #4? Didn't you see the way they used him and Kenton Keith on Monday? Tony Dungy is a smart coach because there is no need to give Addai 90 percent of the carries like earlier in the season. Expect about a 65-35 split this week and moving forward. Jumping to WR, Marvin Harrison at #9 looks too high to me. Harrison is not completely healthy and has just one touchdown this year anyway. Reggie Wayne is the man over there now and Dallas Clark to a certain degree too. And why do you have a San Francisco WR at #30 (DJax)? I had a tough time putting Arnaz Battle at #40, but he has completely outplayed your boy DJax this year. That passing game is awful.
Not so many questions next time, this thing is freakin' huge.
(Greg): I'll let you have the last word on the QB's, as this thing is getting to be novel-length.... Chatman won't have strong #'s because they'll be down 21-0 before they reach London! As for Addai, I'd probably drop him a bit after Dungy's comments about more of a split, but I wouldn't drop him out of the top 10 this week... I can't see Maroney busting out this week, especially considering that the Skins are only allowing 3.5 YPC, along with only 3 rushing TD's this year... As for Harrison, I think he is back at full strength this week, and the Colts want to make a statement before next week's game against the Pats. As I noted in my rankings, I am not high at all on Clark this week, so I expect Harrison to get more looks than usual... And yes, I ranked DJax 30th this week. I had him in my top 40 last week as well, and he rewarded owners with a TD (we won't talk about the fact that he only had 2 catches for 6 yards). I think he is starting to show some signs of life, although he was downgraded to Questionable this week, which would have a big impact on his ranking... If he plays, I could see 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD this week, which would be perfectly acceptable for your #3... Where's the love for Torry Holt - 12th? I know he is having a tough year, but with Bulger back, SJax back, and a horrible Cleveland pass defense, he'll definately be in the Top 10 this week... And Greg Jennings at 25? If Dre Bly and Champ Bailey don't play, I have no problem with that ranking. But if they do play (both are expected to), he is going to be blanketed all night...
(Don): The Skins have a good rush defense, but the Pats can do whatever they want.
If they want to feature Maroney and the running game, they'll be successful. And I think they might this week. I'd take action on DJax putting up those type of numbers this week. He hasn't done that all season. And his TD last week came in the final minute during garbage time. Yeah, I probably have Torry "Big Game" Holt too low. I'd bump him into the top 10. Although I am worried about him for the entire season because of that nagging knee injury. Greg Jennings is ranked at #25 because the Packers have no running game and Favre seems to like him. Jennings caught Favre's record tying and breaking TD's this season. Champ and Dre are nasty, but Jennings will be productive enough.
I never answered your question about a Sox prediction for tonight. But I
will say Boston in 6 games.
(Greg): On that note, we'll call it a night... Go SOX!!!
Thursday, October 25, 2007
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2 comments:
Gus 1, Stinka 0
Stinka, your comments are further evidence why you get bounced every year in our league. Prop's to my former co-GM/draft day specialist for giving my boy Cutler his due.
Ahh.... Mr. Keddy, how quickly we forget that I made the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years. Check the standings my friend... You worried about the two headed monster of Addai/Keith this week playing against the team with the lowest amount of points in the league (yours)???
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